prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 152 South Carolina State 53 37.6, 235 Savannah State 0 3.9
92% 101 Sacred Heart 27 44.8, 230 Central Connecticut 24 11.9
92% 88 Connecticut 38 44.8, 220 Buffalo 7 12.3
92% 81 Western Illinois 56 59.0, 239 Tennessee - Martin 0 2.6
92% 51 Wake Forest 34 40.1, 179 East Carolina 16 9.5
92% 47 Oklahoma State 52 39.4, 202 Southern Methodist 6 7.4
92% 33 Louisville 42 65.9, 237 Texas - El Paso 14 2.0
92% 32 Fordham 37 44.6, 171 Columbia 30 11.4
92% 25 Missouri 41 40.6, 161 Middle Tennessee State 40 5.1
92% 22 Minnesota 48 52.4, 212 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 3.3
92% 15 Dayton 35 61.0, 236 Austin Peay 13 -0.6
92% 11 Texas 48 56.5, 196 Rice 7 12.9
91% 78 San Diego State 37 45.9, 215 Samford 17 9.2
91% 49 Penn State 32 40.4, 183 Kent State 10 7.2
91% 44 Purdue 59 40.2, 177 Arizona 7 7.5
91% 27 Northeastern 48 46.4, 137 William & Mary 14 17.5
91% 5 Oklahoma 59 33.5, 56 California - Los Angel 24 7.4
90% 100 Tulane 50 49.4, 222 Army 33 21.1
90% 62 Washington 45 31.0, 162 Idaho 14 5.8
90% 59 South Carolina 42 32.9, 168 Alabama - Birmingham 10 6.0
90% 57 Air Force 35 50.6, 193 Wyoming 29 20.5
89% 108 Eastern Washington 49 32.3, 207 Southern Utah 21 6.8
89% 97 Northwestern State 14 40.2, 213 Northeast Louisiana 10 17.4
89% 17 Arkansas 31 36.6, 93 North Texas 7 11.9
88% 12 Virginia Tech 35 39.2, 75 Texas A&M 19 17.8
87% 7 Iowa 21 36.6, 66 Arizona State 2 15.7
86% 188 Gardner - Webb 23 31.4, 228 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 12.2
86% 130 Troy State 28 34.9, 225 Southeast Louisiana 0 5.6
86% 112 Alabama State 24 38.5, 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 22 18.9
85% 14 Florida State 47 35.7, 60 Colorado 7 17.4
83% 182 Marist 28 25.2, 227 Siena 14 5.8
83% 90 Wisconsin 38 38.0, 157 North Carolina 27 19.0
83% 54 Western Kentucky 36 31.8, 115 Eastern Kentucky 3 15.3
83% 9 Pennsylvania 51 27.9, 69 Duquesne 10 7.5
81% 194 Alabama A&M 37 20.1, 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 7.6
81% 109 Stony Brook 28 23.6, 164 Wagner 21 10.6
80% 125 Navy 39 30.4, 199 Eastern Michigan 7 16.5
80% 83 Furman 31 27.5, 139 Richmond 17 11.9
80% 73 Yale 62 23.4, 111 Towson 28 10.4
80% 72 Kentucky 34 33.5, 142 Indiana 17 20.1
80% 24 Washington State 23 36.3, 91 New Mexico 13 18.1
79% 217 Jacksonville 14 25.5, 232 Coastal Carolina 9 13.0
79% 150 Elon 14 25.3, 204 East Tennessee State 0 12.2
79% 48 Cincinnati 30 26.8, 95 Temple 24 14.1
79% 3 Miami - Florida 33 33.0, 29 Boston College 14 20.2
78% 70 Harvard 43 38.6, 138 Holy Cross 23 26.4
78% 37 McNeese State 31 39.1, 121 Grambling 20 24.1
77% 87 Texas Christian 30 28.4, 120 Vanderbilt 14 16.7
76% 80 Colgate 31 32.9, 133 Dartmouth 9 22.5
76% 38 Lehigh 28 27.8, 102 Princeton 13 17.8
76% 20 Maryland 34 24.3, 53 West Virginia 7 12.0
75% 105 Syracuse 38 46.8, 127 Central Florida 14 38.5
73% 94 Bethune - Cookman 24 27.7, 151 Florida International 14 19.3
73% 92 Fresno State 16 30.3, 110 Louisiana Tech 6 21.0
72% 189 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 20.8, 219 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 12.9
71% 135 Kansas 41 29.7, 170 Jacksonville State 6 20.9
67% 190 Virginia Military 34 20.6, 203 Norfolk State 9 14.4
65% 134 James Madison 23 23.2, 146 Hofstra 20 18.1
65% 118 Brown 21 28.1, 167 Albany 3 22.8
65% 13 Louisiana State 17 21.7, 16 Georgia 10 17.0
63% 172 Akron 65 28.4, 186 Howard 7 23.0
59% 107 Northern Arizona 23 28.0, 126 Portland State 0 26.1
56% 131 Monmouth 12 18.6, 163 Georgetown 10 17.4
55% 185 Western Carolina 28 27.4, 174 The Citadel 21 26.3
54% 155 Ball State 27 31.4, 145 Central Michigan 14 30.6
54% 41 North Carolina State 49 46.1, 30 Texas Tech 21 45.3
48% 140 Northern Iowa 38 17.9, 165 Stephen F. Austin 24 18.2
47% 36 California 31 26.6, 45 Illinois 24 27.3
43% 156 Rhode Island 55 42.6, 129 New Hampshire 40 43.9
42% 149 Illinois State 21 20.3, 158 Eastern Illinois 14 22.1
42% 144 Nevada - Reno 42 21.8, 153 San Jose State 30 23.3
41% 19 Ohio State 24 31.4, 8 Bowling Green 17 33.5
40% 136 California Poly 24 16.8, 106 Montana State 21 19.1
40% 58 Massachusetts 24 23.8, 64 Maine 16 26.5
39% 226 Valparaiso 38 18.3, 211 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 21.6
38% 210 Baylor 27 23.7, 197 Sam Houston State 6 27.4
38% 132 Houston 42 28.4, 104 Mississippi State 35 32.3
37% 233 Southwest Texas State 34 23.5, 224 California - Davis 32 28.6
36% 187 Jackson State 28 19.6, 175 Texas Southern 21 24.4
35% 154 Florida A&M 10 27.1, 124 Tennessee State 7 32.4
35% 63 Toledo 35 21.8, 28 Pittsburgh 31 26.8
34% 67 Miami - Ohio 41 17.5, 50 Colorado State 21 22.9
33% 201 Robert Morris 31 14.2, 191 Saint Peter's 24 19.8
33% 200 Tulsa 54 22.9, 143 Arkansas State 7 29.0
30% 96 Stanford 18 17.4, 77 Brigham Young 14 25.6
29% 169 Cornell 21 21.0, 113 Bucknell 19 28.3
29% 99 Nevada - Las Vegas 33 30.3, 46 Hawaii 22 38.2
28% 176 Florida Atlantic 13 12.9, 148 Youngstown State 6 20.3
28% 116 Wofford 20 18.7, 68 Georgia Southern 14 26.9
28% 43 Oregon State 26 17.5, 10 Boise State 24 24.9
27% 84 Clemson 39 15.4, 55 Georgia Tech 3 22.8
26% 231 Davidson 45 16.2, 221 Butler 27 25.4
26% 35 Northern Illinois 19 17.6, 18 Alabama 16 27.6
24% 160 Appalachian State 24 14.0, 98 Morehead State 21 23.5
22% 173 Northwestern 28 16.7, 117 Duke 10 28.6
22% 128 Michigan State 22 15.2, 85 Notre Dame 16 29.6
21% 42 Oregon 31 20.7, 6 Michigan 27 33.2
20% 208 Indiana State 17 10.7, 180 Murray State 10 22.7
16% 26 Tennessee 24 15.1, 4 Florida 10 32.9
8% 74 Marshall 27 16.2, 1 Kansas State 20 50.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.81 18 0.43 31 0.77 19 1.11 21 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 66 76.6 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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