2003 Week 5 (25-27 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 180 Alabama A&M             50 39.5,   240 Prairie View            10  6.5
 92% 140 Tennessee State         41 53.7,   239 Tennessee - Martin      10  4.8
 92% 104 North Texas             44 33.4,   206 Louisiana - Lafayette   23  4.7
 92%  92 Georgia Southern        34 46.3,   227 Tennessee - Chattanoog   3  4.3
 92%  44 Montana                 41 39.3,   159 Idaho                   28 11.1
 92%  32 Dayton                  47 36.9,   194 Saint Peter's            6  2.9
 92%  31 Boston College          53 39.0,   150 Ball State              29  8.3
 92%  20 Boise State             33 49.3,   151 Wyoming                 17 15.7
 92%  18 Ohio State              20 40.9,   133 Northwestern             0  7.3
 92%  15 Michigan                31 46.9,   156 Indiana                 17  6.6
 92%   8 Maryland                37 56.4,   202 Eastern Michigan        13  6.2
 92%   5 Florida State           56 43.9,   145 Duke                     7  6.2
 91%  93 Duquesne                62 47.1,   225 La Salle                14  7.4
 91%  71 Furman                  45 39.3,   191 Gardner - Webb           0 10.5
 91%  48 Texas Christian         13 43.5,   199 Arizona                 10 11.4
 91%  13 Texas                   63 47.1,   100 Tulane                  18 20.6
 91%   7 Virginia Tech           47 41.5,    86 Connecticut             13 16.0
 90% 178 Youngstown State        34 30.2,   236 Liberty                  3  7.2
 90% 117 Nevada - Reno           12 37.8,   221 Southern Methodist       9  9.8
 90%  74 South Florida           28 56.4,   226 Army                     0 20.4
 90%  14 Purdue                  23 34.6,   102 Notre Dame              10  6.5
 89%  96 Bethune - Cookman       56 35.9,   214 Norfolk State           14  8.6
 89%  85 Memphis State           38 41.1,   200 Arkansas State          16 11.2
 89%  36 Massachusetts           31 32.8,   128 James Madison           26  9.2
 89%  21 North Carolina State    47 48.2,   108 North Carolina          34 22.7
 89%  17 Louisiana State         41 40.0,   115 Mississippi State        6 18.0
 88% 189 Robert Morris           36 34.9,   234 Saint Francis - Pennsy   6  7.8
 88% 110 Akron                   38 42.3,   219 Buffalo                 21 20.8
 88%  76 Hawaii                  41 45.5,   188 Rice                    21 20.8
 88%  45 Yale                    21 40.5,   153 Cornell                  7 15.1
 86%  39 Delaware                24 37.3,   147 Hofstra                 14 18.8
 85% 216 Howard                  48 26.3,   238 Savannah State           3  9.2
 85% 154 Utah State              28 38.8,   212 Northeast Louisiana     10 20.2
 85% 103 New Mexico              24 36.1,   170 New Mexico State        17 18.1
 83% 176 Jackson State           21 27.8,   231 Mississippi Valley Sta  17  9.8
 83%  70 Colgate                 26 34.0,   143 Towson                   7 16.5
 83%  63 Southern                35 39.3,   126 Alabama State           10 22.9
 83%  58 Lafayette               28 27.4,   116 Princeton               13 11.1
 83%  12 Florida                 24 36.7,    77 Kentucky                21 20.7
 82% 121 Sacramento State        47 40.6,   195 Idaho State             21 25.1
 81%  24 Northern Illinois       24 34.0,    64 Iowa State              16 19.1
 80% 160 Florida A&M             15 29.4,   201 Delaware State          14 16.0
 80%  84 Fresno State            42 32.8,   162 Portland State          16 14.6
 80%  25 Nebraska                38 18.7,    88 Southern Mississippi    14  7.7
 80%  19 Tennessee               23 21.5,    47 South Carolina          20  8.5
 79%  80 San Diego               46 45.8,   149 Holy Cross              45 29.2
 78%  52 Louisville              21 30.9,    99 Temple                  12 18.7
 77% 113 Hampton                 24 31.8,   175 Morgan State            21 20.2
 76%   6 Pennsylvania            31 28.6,    34 Lehigh                  24 17.8
 75% 119 Morehead State          34 36.3,   168 Drake                   17 24.6
 75%  91 Northern Arizona        24 28.1,   118 California Poly          7 18.1
 75%  54 Washington              28 28.3,    94 Stanford                17 17.7
 74% 165 Western Carolina        28 19.9,   217 East Tennessee State    21  9.7
 74%  33 Oregon State            45 23.9,    60 Arizona State           17 15.6
 73% 114 Western Michigan        39 35.6,   179 Ohio                    32 27.3
 73%  43 Pittsburgh              37 31.0,    95 Texas A&M               26 22.8
 72% 163 Nicholls State          64 33.2,   193 Texas Southern           5 24.3
 69% 173 Tennessee Tech          49 25.4,   192 Murray State            24 18.7
 68%  65 California - Los Angel  20 24.0,    90 San Diego State         10 16.1
 67%  97 Georgia Tech            24 23.5,   146 Vanderbilt              17 17.9
 67%  23 Minnesota               20 31.4,    53 Penn State              14 24.7
 67%  22 Villanova               28 28.4,    26 Northeastern             7 22.2
 65% 161 Virginia Military       42 28.5,   171 Georgetown              14 23.4
 64% 232 Southwest Texas State   38 26.0,   235 Southeast Louisiana     17 19.7
 64%  59 Air Force               24 25.5,   101 Brigham Young           10 20.9
 62%  38 Virginia                27 28.7,    37 Wake Forest             24 25.1
 62%  10 Arkansas                34 22.5,    27 Alabama                 31 19.1
 61%  66 Harvard                 52 22.3,    67 Brown                   14 18.9
 61%  49 Miami - Ohio            42 26.2,    51 Cincinnati              37 22.8
 60% 169 New Hampshire           42 36.5,   164 Dartmouth               17 34.4
 59% 190 Stephen F. Austin       60 30.3,   182 Alcorn State             7 28.4
 59% 167 The Citadel             24 29.4,   157 Appalachian State       21 27.7
 56% 218 Samford                 41 23.8,   213 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 22.3
 55%  28 Washington State        55 31.5,    40 Oregon                  16 30.5
 53% 107 Northern Iowa           43 19.9,    98 Northwestern State      10 19.5
 52% 196 Indiana State           23 19.1,   172 Eastern Illinois         7 18.8

 49% 148 Columbia                19 25.2,   129 Bucknell                16 25.4
 47%  61 Texas Tech              49 39.1,    78 Mississippi             45 39.6
 45%  73 Utah                    28 22.8,    82 Colorado State          21 23.8
 40% 222 Jacksonville            34 19.8,   205 Valparaiso              27 22.0
 39%  57 Auburn                  48 13.8,    35 Western Kentucky         3 16.1
 38% 136 Rhode Island            17 31.7,   130 Richmond                13 35.2
 38% 127 North Carolina A&T      29 14.9,   125 Elon                    14 18.2
 36% 223 Central Connecticut     28 16.1,   220 Siena                   10 20.5
 33% 144 Monmouth                20 13.9,   131 Stony Brook             14 18.9
 33% 106 Kansas                  35 28.8,    55 Missouri                14 35.8
 33%  83 Syracuse                34 30.7,    41 Toledo                   7 36.4
 32% 187 Marist                  24 16.1,   158 Wagner                  13 22.3
 32% 184 Kent State              36 25.4,   139 Central Florida         16 31.9
 30% 186 Albany                  42 17.5,   120 Sacred Heart             7 24.3
 27%  79 Wisconsin               38 18.5,    56 Illinois                20 26.7
 26% 233 Texas - El Paso         59 16.2,   210 Sam Houston State       14 25.4
 26% 152 Florida Atlantic        28 12.7,   122 Illinois State          10 21.2
 24% 183 Rutgers                 48 15.1,   111 Navy                    27 24.8
 21% 209 Jacksonville State      49 15.4,   138 Eastern Kentucky        14 30.5
 15% 132 Troy State              33 10.1,    29 Marshall                24 31.2
 15%  42 California              34 23.2,     1 Southern California     31 40.4
 12% 197 Weber State             35  6.6,   112 Eastern Washington      23 26.4
 11% 208 Northern Colorado       14 14.3,   123 Montana State           10 36.8
 11% 105 Michigan State          20 13.0,     9 Iowa                    10 36.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 1.14  22 0.84  19 0.97  30 0.97  18 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100  76  77.1 0.99

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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