prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 139 Florida Atlantic 27 43.5, 231 Southwest Texas State 14 14.6
92% 130 Grambling 65 63.9, 240 Prairie View 7 8.7
92% 129 Albany 56 45.7, 239 Savannah State 0 3.9
92% 92 Wofford 42 36.8, 218 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 8.0
92% 85 Duquesne 36 45.3, 229 Siena 14 3.7
92% 80 Texas Christian 27 48.7, 227 Army 0 4.4
92% 67 McNeese State 58 59.5, 237 Southeast Louisiana 20 6.1
92% 54 Southern 53 46.7, 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 5.0
92% 32 Oklahoma State 56 50.3, 207 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 4.1
92% 31 Dayton 32 44.9, 209 Davidson 25 5.8
92% 27 Northern Illinois 30 48.2, 180 Ohio 23 12.0
92% 16 Bowling Green 23 58.0, 174 Central Michigan 3 19.1
92% 14 Washington State 30 48.4, 172 Arizona 7 8.1
92% 13 Villanova 38 39.7, 118 James Madison 14 6.4
92% 8 Virginia Tech 48 52.0, 148 Rutgers 22 18.3
92% 7 Pennsylvania 33 51.6, 190 Dartmouth 20 7.6
91% 117 Monmouth 30 26.5, 213 Iona 7 3.8
91% 23 Nebraska 30 33.0, 114 Troy State 0 5.4
91% 3 Miami - Florida 22 39.6, 63 West Virginia 20 12.6
90% 107 North Carolina A&T 34 33.8, 223 Norfolk State 14 6.8
89% 165 Central Florida 19 39.6, 222 Buffalo 10 17.1
89% 108 Hampton 41 38.3, 206 Delaware State 9 14.7
89% 68 Maine 20 33.1, 163 Richmond 10 9.8
88% 51 Colgate 27 34.5, 175 Cornell 24 12.6
88% 22 Minnesota 42 39.9, 126 Northwestern 17 18.5
87% 42 Delaware 41 37.9, 119 William & Mary 27 17.6
87% 4 Southern California 37 40.3, 77 Arizona State 17 20.1
86% 48 Furman 19 35.9, 162 Western Carolina 13 17.3
86% 46 Massachusetts 44 43.2, 124 New Hampshire 30 24.1
86% 5 Oklahoma 53 38.9, 75 Iowa State 7 19.6
85% 120 Morehead State 32 33.4, 220 Valparaiso 26 11.5
85% 25 Purdue 43 32.7, 83 Illinois 10 15.1
84% 61 Montana 17 36.8, 128 California Poly 14 18.5
83% 156 Alabama A&M 63 33.8, 214 Texas Southern 0 15.6
83% 115 Western Michigan 31 40.4, 205 Eastern Michigan 3 24.1
83% 90 Georgia Southern 37 23.7, 155 Florida International 35 8.6
82% 79 Michigan State 31 32.5, 137 Indiana 3 16.8
82% 52 Yale 41 41.7, 154 Holy Cross 16 26.0
81% 173 Appalachian State 21 24.3, 210 East Tennessee State 7 9.7
81% 36 Virginia 38 39.5, 113 North Carolina 13 25.3
81% 30 Boise State 43 30.8, 105 Louisiana Tech 37 16.7
81% 12 Maryland 21 29.0, 47 Clemson 7 14.7
80% 185 Drake 40 40.6, 221 Jacksonville 34 23.7
80% 81 Northern Iowa 16 28.5, 177 Illinois State 7 13.7
80% 38 Miami - Ohio 45 44.3, 96 Akron 20 29.7
79% 129 Albany 64 27.5, 193 Saint Peter's 9 13.8
79% 99 Northern Arizona 48 29.0, 188 Weber State 29 15.6
79% 89 Southern Illinois 37 21.9, 183 Indiana State 14 8.9
79% 70 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 31.6, 141 Nevada - Reno 12 19.2
78% 158 Montana State 40 26.8, 215 Saint Mary's 0 14.1
78% 102 New Mexico 34 28.7, 150 Utah State 7 16.4
77% 44 Texas Tech 59 43.7, 88 Texas A&M 28 32.9
76% 200 Gardner - Webb 38 24.3, 232 Coastal Carolina 17 13.6
76% 136 Youngstown State 34 15.5, 170 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 7.6
75% 11 Georgia 37 22.2, 28 Alabama 23 13.7
74% 101 Temple 44 30.7, 159 Middle Tennessee State 36 22.2
73% 181 Wagner 39 25.7, 204 Central Connecticut 16 15.7
70% 191 Eastern Kentucky 13 40.7, 202 Samford 10 32.7
70% 94 Western Illinois 33 24.5, 112 Western Kentucky 28 16.3
68% 35 South Florida 31 25.9, 45 Louisville 28 18.6
63% 138 Houston 27 29.0, 186 East Carolina 13 24.5
62% 189 Rice 28 26.0, 187 San Jose State 24 22.6
62% 20 Auburn 28 18.5, 21 Tennessee 21 15.2
61% 169 Sacred Heart 56 23.2, 167 Marist 28 20.5
61% 56 Utah 17 31.6, 59 Oregon 13 28.2
60% 26 Iowa 30 19.3, 18 Michigan 27 17.1
59% 226 Austin Peay 28 31.9, 225 Butler 7 29.8
56% 208 Arkansas State 44 21.8, 201 Northeast Louisiana 41 20.6
56% 176 The Citadel 31 25.0, 164 Elon 7 23.7
56% 147 Robert Morris 23 25.3, 132 Stony Brook 20 24.2
55% 178 Florida A&M 28 19.8, 184 Jackson State 14 18.9
54% 73 California - Los Angel 46 23.9, 57 Washington 16 23.1
52% 24 Oregon State 35 27.1, 33 California 21 26.8
49% 6 Texas 24 29.8, 2 Kansas State 20 30.1
45% 140 Mississippi State 30 26.5, 116 Vanderbilt 21 27.7
45% 86 Colorado State 34 23.3, 74 Fresno State 10 24.2
44% 41 Harvard 28 27.2, 29 Northeastern 20 28.3
39% 151 Ball State 34 24.7, 153 Kent State 17 27.4
39% 123 Rhode Island 27 28.9, 122 Brown 9 32.2
38% 219 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 17.8, 197 Eastern Illinois 17 21.6
38% 192 Idaho State 55 25.6, 157 Eastern Washington 52 29.2
37% 217 Texas - El Paso 21 16.5, 211 Southern Methodist 19 20.4
35% 135 Tulsa 27 32.8, 87 Hawaii 16 38.2
34% 121 Columbia 33 17.5, 109 Princeton 27 23.2
34% 65 Wisconsin 30 17.1, 55 Penn State 23 22.2
31% 196 Murray State 23 18.1, 131 Jacksonville State 17 25.9
31% 182 Idaho 35 20.1, 160 New Mexico State 31 27.1
25% 95 Southern Mississippi 22 17.1, 64 Cincinnati 20 26.6
24% 110 Brigham Young 44 11.6, 93 San Diego State 36 19.6
24% 104 Connecticut 35 19.3, 40 Lehigh 17 30.0
23% 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 33 19.2, 228 La Salle 27 31.1
22% 171 Portland State 21 18.8, 111 Stephen F. Austin 13 32.0
20% 78 Georgia Tech 29 21.0, 17 North Carolina State 21 34.8
17% 62 Mississippi 20 23.8, 15 Florida 17 40.1
16% 161 Navy 28 17.3, 50 Air Force 25 38.2
15% 166 Morgan State 31 17.5, 84 Bethune - Cookman 24 36.0
12% 203 Baylor 42 15.9, 72 Colorado 30 42.4
10% 179 Alabama - Birmingham 24 16.3, 69 Memphis State 10 40.3
10% 146 Bucknell 31 15.5, 37 Fordham 10 40.8
8% 238 Tennessee - Martin 30 10.1, 144 Tennessee Tech 23 48.8
8% 236 Liberty 31 11.2, 142 Virginia Military 28 45.2
8% 230 California - Davis 31 16.6, 106 Sacramento State 27 50.6
8% 195 Georgetown 17 10.7, 53 Lafayette 10 42.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.15 19 0.74 19 0.95 31 0.91 23 0.90 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 73 80.4 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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