rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 209 Alcorn State over 240 Prairie View 48 Dayton over 210 Valparaiso 53 Furman over 176 Appalachian State 123 Grambling over 224 Mississippi Valley State 83 Duquesne over 221 Iona 144 Jacksonville State over 236 Tennessee - Martin 68 Lehigh over 227 Saint Mary's 42 Louisville over 222 Army 13 Maryland over 151 Duke 35 Miami - Ohio over 218 Buffalo 46 Mississippi over 197 Arkansas State 75 Northern Iowa over 186 Indiana State 129 Northwestern State over 238 Southeast Louisiana 9 Pennsylvania over 95 Bucknell 39 Albany over 232 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 114 Sacred Heart over 228 Siena 131 South Carolina State over 226 Norfolk State 3 Southern California over 93 Stanford 64 Toledo over 212 Eastern Michigan 169 Virginia Military over 237 Charleston Southern 41 Yale over 172 Dartmouth 80-90% chance of victory: 30 Alabama over 92 Southern Mississippi 44 California - Los Angeles over 179 Arizona 28 Boise State over 116 Tulsa 43 Northern Illinois over 168 Central Michigan 24 Harvard over 157 Cornell 106 Bethune - Cookman over 208 Delaware State 189 Gardner - Webb over 233 Liberty 94 Georgia Southern over 170 Western Carolina 26 Northeastern over 160 Hofstra 86 North Texas over 182 Idaho 184 Marist over 231 La Salle 49 Marshall over 181 Kent State 118 Monmouth over 180 Wagner 77 Montana over 190 Weber State 101 Montana State over 177 Idaho State 141 Morehead State over 220 Austin Peay 23 North Carolina State over 82 Connecticut 14 Purdue over 61 Penn State 11 Villanova over 115 Rhode Island 80 San Diego over 199 Drake 87 Southern Illinois over 187 Illinois State 98 Louisiana Tech over 215 Texas - El Paso 33 Texas Tech over 81 Iowa State 12 Virginia Tech over 58 Syracuse 76 Washington over 159 Nevada - Reno 45 West Virginia over 130 Rutgers 100 Western Kentucky over 198 Southwest Missouri State 88 Wofford over 192 Elon 70-80% chance of victory: 52 South Florida over 78 Texas Christian 112 Akron over 133 California Poly 60 Cincinnati over 135 Alabama - Birmingham 152 Alabama State over 194 Jackson State 6 Arkansas over 15 Auburn 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 229 Texas Southern 140 Robert Morris over 202 Central Connecticut 128 North Carolina over 191 East Carolina 167 Florida A&M over 211 Howard 85 Lafayette over 120 Columbia 8 Louisiana State over 20 Florida 21 Nebraska over 89 Missouri 37 Delaware over 117 New Hampshire 5 Kansas State over 31 Oklahoma State 36 Pittsburgh over 84 Notre Dame 67 Colgate over 153 Princeton 185 San Jose State over 219 Southern Methodist 51 Southern over 104 Alabama A&M 205 Southern Utah over 225 Southwest Texas State 34 Boston College over 110 Temple 111 Texas A&M over 174 Baylor 55 Utah over 109 San Diego State 27 Bowling Green over 107 Western Michigan 59 Massachusetts over 127 William & Mary 66 Western Illinois over 134 Youngstown State 60-70% chance of victory: 56 South Carolina over 62 Kentucky 16 Minnesota over 18 Michigan 63 Air Force over 72 Nevada - Las Vegas 79 Fordham over 139 Brown 65 Kansas over 99 Colorado 188 Eastern Kentucky over 206 Eastern Illinois 156 Eastern Washington over 166 Portland State 108 Nicholls State over 164 Florida Atlantic 2 Florida State over 7 Miami - Florida 201 Davidson over 217 Jacksonville 142 James Madison over 147 Richmond 161 Middle Tennessee State over 171 New Mexico State 165 Ohio over 178 Central Florida 102 Northern Arizona over 150 Sacramento State 10 Georgia over 32 Tennessee 149 Tennessee State over 196 Tennessee Tech 148 Towson over 155 Holy Cross 132 Tulane over 137 Houston 122 Vanderbilt over 138 Navy 47 Wake Forest over 57 Georgia Tech 25 Ohio State over 54 Wisconsin 1 Oklahoma over 4 Texas 50-60% chance of victory: 73 Colorado State over 103 Brigham Young 126 Stephen F. Austin over 154 Florida International 74 Arizona State over 69 Oregon 29 Virginia over 40 Clemson 146 Stony Brook over 175 Georgetown 97 Hawaii over 90 Fresno State 70 Michigan State over 96 Illinois 125 Northwestern over 163 Indiana 204 Northeast Louisiana over 213 Louisiana - Lafayette 121 Mississippi State over 113 Memphis State 136 Morgan State over 119 North Carolina A&T 195 Samford over 193 Murray State 145 Wyoming over 173 Utah State
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