2003 Week 7 (9-11 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 209 Alcorn State            66 48.7,   240 Prairie View             0 15.1
 92% 169 Virginia Military       50 47.0,   237 Charleston Southern      7 12.3
 92% 144 Jacksonville State      34 43.6,   236 Tennessee - Martin      24  5.4
 92% 131 South Carolina State    34 40.3,   226 Norfolk State           15  8.4
 92% 129 Northwestern State      87 50.6,   238 Southeast Louisiana     27  5.8
 92%  83 Duquesne                42 43.1,   221 Iona                    29 15.0
 92%  68 Lehigh                  35 50.6,   227 Saint Mary's             7  4.8
 92%  64 Toledo                  49 45.4,   212 Eastern Michigan        14  8.4
 92%  46 Mississippi             55 47.4,   197 Arkansas State           0 15.1
 92%  42 Louisville              34 53.8,   222 Army                    10  5.4
 92%  41 Yale                    40 40.9,   172 Dartmouth               17 12.9
 92%  39 Albany                  44 58.0,   232 Saint Francis - Pennsy  21  7.1
 92%  35 Miami - Ohio            59 53.0,   218 Buffalo                  3  6.9
 92%  13 Maryland                33 38.0,   151 Duke                    20  3.7
 92%   3 Southern California     44 43.6,    93 Stanford                21 10.2
 91% 123 Grambling               45 40.9,   224 Mississippi Valley Sta   6  9.8
 91% 114 Sacred Heart            41 41.3,   228 Siena                   14  9.5
 91%   9 Pennsylvania            14 38.5,    95 Bucknell                13  8.4
 90%  77 Montana                 12 41.5,   190 Weber State              7 17.3
 90%  75 Northern Iowa           22 31.2,   186 Indiana State           14  7.3
 90%  49 Marshall                49 42.8,   181 Kent State              33 16.2
 90%  24 Harvard                 27 40.1,   157 Cornell                  0 16.6
 89% 141 Morehead State          49 32.8,   220 Austin Peay              0  8.7
 89%  80 San Diego               41 60.5,   199 Drake                   35 34.9
 89%  11 Villanova               21 41.5,   115 Rhode Island            17 19.6
 88% 189 Gardner - Webb          27 38.1,   233 Liberty                 17 16.2
 88%  98 Louisiana Tech          38 39.8,   215 Texas - El Paso         35 17.6
 88%  88 Wofford                 45 34.1,   192 Elon                     7 10.3
 88%  87 Southern Illinois       45 30.5,   187 Illinois State          17  7.2
 88%  44 California - Los Angel  24 37.5,   179 Arizona                 21 14.6
 88%  28 Boise State             27 39.0,   116 Tulsa                   20 16.4
 86% 106 Bethune - Cookman       27 37.1,   208 Delaware State          13 18.2
 86% 100 Western Kentucky         9 35.9,   198 Southwest Missouri Sta   6 13.9
 86%  43 Northern Illinois       40 36.3,   168 Central Michigan        24 16.8
 85%  45 West Virginia           34 38.0,   130 Rutgers                 19 17.7
 85%  30 Alabama                 17 28.8,    92 Southern Mississippi     3 11.3
 84%  23 North Carolina State    31 41.8,    82 Connecticut             24 25.0
 84%  14 Purdue                  28 28.6,    61 Penn State              14 12.3
 83% 118 Monmouth                24 21.0,   180 Wagner                   0  7.3
 83%  12 Virginia Tech           51 40.9,    58 Syracuse                 7 24.1
 82%  94 Georgia Southern        31 34.3,   170 Western Carolina        25 17.4
 81%  86 North Texas             24 30.5,   182 Idaho                   14 16.5
 80% 185 San Jose State          31 26.3,   219 Southern Methodist      14 13.4
 80%  33 Texas Tech              52 43.5,    81 Iowa State              21 30.2
 79% 152 Alabama State           27 32.5,   194 Jackson State           20 20.2
 79% 111 Texas A&M               73 37.1,   174 Baylor                  10 22.4
 79%  55 Utah                    27 25.5,   109 San Diego State          6 13.2
 79%  27 Bowling Green           32 36.5,   107 Western Michigan        21 22.0
 78% 205 Southern Utah           31 34.4,   225 Southwest Texas State   28 22.1
 78%  67 Colgate                 30 28.1,   153 Princeton                3 16.2
 78%  51 Southern                55 25.4,   104 Alabama A&M             25 12.9
 78%  37 Delaware                22 40.1,   117 New Hampshire           21 28.1
 78%  34 Boston College          38 32.5,   110 Temple                  13 20.2
 77% 140 Robert Morris           27 30.2,   202 Central Connecticut     17 19.4
 77%  59 Massachusetts           24 37.1,   127 William & Mary          14 26.6
 76%  66 Western Illinois        54 21.5,   134 Youngstown State        20 11.9
 75%  85 Lafayette               41 28.6,   120 Columbia                27 19.1
 73% 128 North Carolina          28 30.0,   191 East Carolina           17 21.6
 71% 112 Akron                   45 31.9,   133 California Poly         14 24.4
 69% 149 Tennessee State         27 32.7,   196 Tennessee Tech          23 25.6
 67% 165 Ohio                    28 32.4,   178 Central Florida          0 26.1
 67%  79 Fordham                 24 22.9,   139 Brown                   21 16.2
 67%  63 Air Force               24 26.0,    72 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 20.5
 67%  10 Georgia                 41 24.6,    32 Tennessee               14 18.4
 65% 161 Middle Tennessee State  35 37.3,   171 New Mexico State        18 32.2
 65% 102 Northern Arizona        24 34.7,   150 Sacramento State        21 29.4
 65%  56 South Carolina          27 21.7,    62 Kentucky                21 17.2
 64% 156 Eastern Washington      42 28.4,   166 Portland State          16 23.5
 64% 142 James Madison           34 20.1,   147 Richmond                14 16.0
 64%   1 Oklahoma                65 32.0,     4 Texas                   13 27.2
 63% 148 Towson                  30 34.8,   155 Holy Cross              13 31.0
 62% 201 Davidson                37 25.6,   217 Jacksonville            29 21.9
 62% 188 Eastern Kentucky        41 27.7,   206 Eastern Illinois         0 24.4
 60% 125 Northwestern            37 23.7,   163 Indiana                 31 21.5
 60%  74 Arizona State           59 30.8,    69 Oregon                  14 28.6
 60%  73 Colorado State          58 23.9,   103 Brigham Young           13 21.7
 59% 195 Samford                 35 29.0,   193 Murray State             6 26.7
 59%  70 Michigan State          49 22.0,    96 Illinois                14 20.2
 58% 145 Wyoming                 48 31.0,   173 Utah State              21 29.5
 55% 126 Stephen F. Austin       35 24.2,   154 Florida International   13 23.2
 55% 121 Mississippi State       35 26.6,   113 Memphis State           27 25.3
 54%  97 Hawaii                  55 32.1,    90 Fresno State            28 31.4
 51% 204 Northeast Louisiana     45 25.3,   213 Louisiana - Lafayette   42 25.0

 49% 119 North Carolina A&T      28 21.7,   136 Morgan State            21 21.9
 49%  40 Clemson                 30 24.3,    29 Virginia                27 24.5
 41% 175 Georgetown              49 22.4,   146 Stony Brook             21 24.4
 39%  99 Colorado                50 35.0,    65 Kansas                  47 38.1
 39%  54 Wisconsin               17 19.3,    25 Ohio State              10 22.2
 37%  18 Michigan                38 28.3,    16 Minnesota               35 32.2
 36% 137 Houston                 45 32.3,   132 Tulane                  42 36.3
 36%  57 Georgia Tech            24 16.9,    47 Wake Forest              7 21.3
 34% 138 Navy                    37 22.0,   122 Vanderbilt              27 27.6
 31% 164 Florida Atlantic        31 22.5,   108 Nicholls State          23 29.0
 30%   7 Miami - Florida         22 22.3,     2 Florida State           14 29.6
 24% 135 Alabama - Birmingham    31 20.7,    60 Cincinnati              14 31.4
 24%  31 Oklahoma State          38 20.3,     5 Kansas State            34 31.6
 23% 229 Texas Southern           7 17.9,   216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    6 29.6
 23% 211 Howard                  16 15.4,   167 Florida A&M             14 26.0
 23%  89 Missouri                41 19.3,    21 Nebraska                24 30.1
 23%  78 Texas Christian         13 11.5,    52 South Florida           10 20.9
 23%  20 Florida                 19 16.0,     8 Louisiana State          7 26.8
 23%  15 Auburn                  10 17.7,     6 Arkansas                 3 29.4
 22%  84 Notre Dame              20 15.5,    36 Pittsburgh              14 28.1
 17% 177 Idaho State             23 17.0,   101 Montana State           17 33.5
 16% 159 Nevada - Reno           28 18.0,    76 Washington              17 36.0
 12% 231 La Salle                33 19.5,   184 Marist                  31 42.5
 10% 160 Hofstra                 24 19.0,    26 Northeastern            14 41.6
  9% 176 Appalachian State       13 13.8,    53 Furman                  10 39.6
  8% 210 Valparaiso              33  9.4,    48 Dayton                  28 50.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 1.36  22 0.98  25 0.83  28 0.99  21 0.99   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109  83  84.3 0.98

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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