prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 154 Florida Atlantic 51 35.2, 235 Siena 3 3.9
92% 102 Grambling 33 59.9, 239 Savannah State 17 3.4
92% 99 James Madison 45 52.7, 238 Charleston Southern 7 2.1
92% 82 Monmouth 28 34.8, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 5.2
92% 55 Southern 24 47.3, 221 Texas Southern 17 15.3
92% 29 Bowling Green 42 46.7, 165 Kent State 33 16.7
92% 18 Arkansas 48 50.8, 184 New Mexico State 20 11.2
92% 16 Tennessee 59 42.6, 151 Mississippi State 21 7.8
92% 13 Boise State 51 65.0, 223 Texas - El Paso 21 7.9
92% 9 Virginia Tech 24 43.7, 150 Temple 23 13.4
92% 3 Southern California 45 55.3, 161 Arizona 0 11.6
92% 1 Oklahoma 41 77.4, 206 Baylor 3 2.5
91% 233 Southeast Louisiana 64 51.5, 240 Prairie View 10 20.8
91% 88 North Texas 58 38.8, 207 Arkansas State 14 11.2
91% 42 Northeastern 45 37.5, 155 Richmond 0 12.3
90% 98 Georgia Southern 37 38.3, 217 Elon 13 14.7
90% 8 Michigan 41 37.0, 105 Northwestern 10 13.9
89% 220 Delaware State 36 41.2, 237 Norfolk State 25 18.7
89% 141 Alabama State 55 35.4, 228 Mississippi Valley Sta 31 13.3
89% 4 Texas 43 47.8, 43 Texas Tech 40 25.8
88% 48 Southern Mississippi 28 35.6, 145 Tulane 14 14.7
88% 34 Montana 41 40.0, 136 Eastern Washington 10 17.4
87% 202 Murray State 41 34.5, 236 Tennessee - Martin 27 15.6
87% 168 Georgetown 30 40.8, 227 Davidson 10 19.9
87% 84 Penn State 52 28.9, 169 Indiana 7 9.6
87% 17 Washington State 34 39.3, 85 Arizona State 19 18.9
87% 10 Miami - Florida 17 36.2, 71 Syracuse 10 15.7
86% 100 Appalachian State 26 32.7, 186 Western Carolina 18 14.6
86% 96 Akron 35 44.0, 185 Ohio 28 25.0
86% 68 Duquesne 33 35.4, 167 Robert Morris 28 15.6
85% 115 Jacksonville State 36 32.5, 195 Eastern Illinois 24 14.6
85% 35 Oklahoma State 44 41.4, 112 Kansas 21 22.8
84% 114 Northern Arizona 34 39.1, 213 Sam Houston State 18 22.4
84% 45 Clemson 40 32.2, 128 Duke 7 15.1
84% 7 Florida 24 30.5, 67 South Carolina 22 14.9
83% 103 Fresno State 41 36.3, 174 San Jose State 7 19.6
83% 65 Western Kentucky 37 29.5, 171 Youngstown State 13 13.2
83% 5 Florida State 50 35.6, 31 North Carolina State 44 20.0
82% 110 Bethune - Cookman 21 32.1, 204 Howard 7 17.3
82% 76 Notre Dame 33 27.9, 147 Brigham Young 14 12.4
82% 53 Missouri 45 38.2, 116 Texas A&M 22 22.7
81% 89 Lafayette 41 43.6, 187 Holy Cross 13 29.6
81% 77 Western Illinois 63 36.3, 140 Southwest Missouri Sta 42 21.2
81% 73 McNeese State 13 36.5, 138 Northwestern State 9 20.8
81% 51 Colorado State 21 29.2, 120 San Diego State 6 15.2
81% 47 Utah 47 36.2, 107 Wyoming 17 21.7
81% 39 Oregon State 43 32.4, 91 Stanford 3 18.0
81% 26 California 54 35.8, 75 Washington 7 21.0
80% 153 Weber State 26 30.3, 205 Sacramento State 14 16.6
79% 106 Montana State 25 25.9, 188 Portland State 14 13.7
78% 130 Columbia 34 26.5, 192 Cornell 21 15.8
78% 127 Western Michigan 44 34.4, 173 Central Michigan 21 22.1
78% 78 Georgia Tech 41 31.6, 134 North Carolina 24 19.1
78% 20 Miami - Ohio 45 36.4, 44 Marshall 6 24.7
77% 178 Rice 41 25.8, 224 Southern Methodist 20 15.2
77% 19 Pennsylvania 32 30.9, 70 Harvard 24 20.2
77% 12 Maryland 27 27.6, 36 Virginia 17 17.1
76% 172 Illinois State 38 28.0, 193 Indiana State 3 18.4
76% 160 Houston 34 35.1, 211 Army 14 25.3
75% 57 Texas Christian 43 30.8, 92 Cincinnati 10 21.4
73% 49 Lehigh 45 27.1, 113 Bucknell 9 18.9
72% 209 Southern Utah 40 28.4, 231 Saint Mary's 7 20.4
72% 2 Kansas State 38 20.8, 14 Nebraska 9 13.5
68% 183 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 30.1, 215 Tennessee Tech 20 23.7
68% 97 North Carolina A&T 38 22.6, 119 Hampton 28 16.6
68% 63 Colorado 44 27.9, 123 Iowa State 10 21.1
67% 58 Boston College 35 36.2, 109 Rutgers 25 30.1
66% 108 Stephen F. Austin 28 31.6, 122 Nicholls State 16 26.0
66% 11 Georgia 26 20.7, 15 Auburn 7 16.0
64% 163 Gardner - Webb 22 25.8, 177 Florida International 19 20.6
64% 66 Yale 27 31.9, 104 Princeton 24 27.5
64% 30 Colgate 14 33.3, 37 Fordham 3 28.6
64% 28 Maine 14 28.2, 33 Villanova 10 22.8
63% 38 Delaware 51 24.8, 41 Massachusetts 45 20.8
62% 143 South Carolina State 27 22.2, 148 Florida A&M 15 18.9
62% 61 New Mexico 24 31.2, 64 Air Force 12 27.6
61% 203 East Tennessee State 68 20.0, 198 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 17.2
61% 149 Eastern Kentucky 43 30.9, 181 Tennessee State 38 27.6
61% 125 William & Mary 38 37.1, 121 New Hampshire 28 34.2
61% 25 Ohio State 16 21.0, 24 Purdue 13 18.4
60% 124 Brown 26 23.6, 117 Dartmouth 21 21.1
60% 54 Wofford 7 21.0, 93 Furman 6 19.0
60% 23 Iowa 40 30.1, 21 Minnesota 22 27.6
60% 6 Louisiana State 27 20.7, 22 Alabama 3 18.2
59% 218 Saint Peter's 38 24.1, 226 La Salle 20 22.2
57% 62 Wisconsin 56 24.3, 52 Michigan State 21 23.0
56% 142 Tulsa 48 33.4, 132 Louisiana Tech 18 32.3
55% 175 Wagner 24 21.5, 162 Sacred Heart 16 20.7
55% 40 West Virginia 52 22.5, 32 Pittsburgh 31 21.7
53% 87 Northern Iowa 43 22.8, 74 Southern Illinois 40 22.2
52% 189 Idaho 58 27.8, 208 Northeast Louisiana 20 27.4
50% 225 Liberty 38 26.8, 216 Coastal Carolina 21 26.8
48% 166 The Citadel 27 26.8, 164 Virginia Military 23 27.3
46% 158 Stony Brook 31 27.3, 170 Iona 20 28.1
46% 146 Rhode Island 24 27.3, 129 Hofstra 0 28.0
38% 137 Troy State 23 16.1, 139 Utah State 14 19.1
38% 90 Toledo 49 26.5, 50 Northern Illinois 30 30.1
37% 219 Marist 33 22.8, 201 Central Connecticut 29 26.5
37% 159 Idaho State 38 29.0, 156 California Poly 31 33.1
36% 72 Memphis State 37 27.9, 59 Louisville 7 32.4
28% 83 Connecticut 51 26.2, 56 Wake Forest 17 34.0
27% 133 Vanderbilt 28 29.1, 69 Kentucky 17 37.0
26% 131 Towson 35 15.1, 60 Albany 16 23.2
24% 79 Oregon 31 18.5, 46 California - Los Angel 13 28.8
23% 157 Nevada - Reno 24 26.6, 81 Hawaii 14 36.9
22% 210 Eastern Michigan 38 18.9, 144 Ball State 14 30.0
22% 190 Alcorn State 20 17.8, 111 Alabama A&M 15 29.4
20% 200 Louisiana - Lafayette 57 21.1, 152 Middle Tennessee State 51 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.37 25 1.26 22 0.90 33 1.15 16 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 92 81.7 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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