2003 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%  14 Miami - Ohio            49 42.2,    90 Louisville              28 24.3
 83%  13 Boise State             34 34.8,    70 Texas Christian         31 18.9
 82%  34 Bowling Green           28 34.0,   107 Northwestern            24 19.3
 79%  28 North Carolina State    56 42.1,    85 Kansas                  26 29.7
 77%  78 Hawaii                  54 44.7,   135 Houston                 48 35.5
 76%  25 Minnesota               31 37.6,    59 Oregon                  30 28.2
 76%   2 Southern California     28 37.8,     7 Michigan                14 28.0
 75%  68 Georgia Tech            52 28.7,   123 Tulsa                   10 18.9
 75%  27 Nebraska                17 27.6,    60 Michigan State           3 18.4
 74%  17 Auburn                  28 26.0,    43 Wisconsin               14 17.5
 74%  11 Maryland                41 28.3,    32 West Virginia            7 19.9
 72%  22 Virginia                23 29.1,    44 Pittsburgh              16 21.5
 68%   9 Georgia                 34 24.2,    26 Purdue                  27 18.0
 67%  38 Texas Tech              38 41.0,    66 Navy                    14 35.9
 67%  24 Arkansas                27 34.4,    39 Missouri                14 28.7
 67%  21 Delaware                40 26.6,    36 Colgate                  0 21.0
 63%  35 Utah                    17 22.0,    55 Southern Mississippi     0 18.0
 62%  20 Mississippi             31 31.1,    30 Oklahoma State          28 27.8
 61%  71 Memphis State           27 23.8,    86 North Texas             17 20.8
 59%  45 Boston College          35 28.8,    53 Colorado State          21 27.2
 59%  18 California              52 30.2,    23 Virginia Tech           49 28.4
 55%  46 Oregon State            55 27.1,    49 New Mexico              14 26.1

 39%   8 Miami - Florida         16 19.6,     6 Florida State           14 22.3
 37%  19 Iowa                    37 19.9,    10 Florida                 17 23.5
 34%  31 Clemson                 27 20.4,    16 Tennessee               14 25.6
 30% 109 Fresno State            17 18.4,    69 California - Los Angel   9 25.4
 27%   4 Louisiana State         21 18.5,     1 Oklahoma                14 26.6
 26%  15 Washington State        28 25.2,     5 Texas                   20 33.6
 13%  29 Ohio State              35 12.0,     3 Kansas State            28 31.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.74  11 0.98  11 1.09   4 0.89   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  29  22  20.5 1.07

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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