2004 Week 1 (2-6 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  18 Auburn                  31 55.3,   206 Northeast Louisiana      0  5.5
 91% 115 Western Michigan        42 52.7,   234 Tennessee - Martin       0 10.8
 91%  64 Arizona State           41 51.3,   224 Texas - El Paso          9 12.4
 91%  41 Missouri                52 50.3,   209 Arkansas State          20  7.9
 91%  26 Arkansas                63 49.1,   183 New Mexico State        13 11.9
 91%  19 Iowa                    39 47.4,   166 Kent State               7 10.3
 91%  17 Boise State             65 49.3,   177 Idaho                    7  9.7
 90%  52 Connecticut             52 45.4,   205 Murray State            14 11.5
 90%  49 Wisconsin               34 41.7,   191 Central Florida          6 11.1
 90%  39 West Virginia           56 47.6,   196 East Carolina           23 13.5
 90%  37 Texas Tech              27 50.6,   220 Southern Methodist      13 11.7
 90%  20 North Carolina State    42 51.5,   182 Richmond                 0 15.3
 90%   2 Kansas State            27 40.4,    55 Western Kentucky        13 10.1
 89%  80 Lafayette               48 44.1,   208 Marist                   7 14.1
 89%  50 Massachusetts           51 44.6,   216 Delaware State           0 10.1
 89%   6 Texas                   65 41.9,    91 North Texas              0 13.1
 88%  54 Georgia Tech            28 37.8,   175 Samford                  7 13.7
 88%  38 Alabama                 48 40.4,   161 Utah State              17 14.9
 88%  10 Georgia                 48 39.3,    88 Georgia Southern        28 14.2
 88%   9 Maryland                23 38.1,    83 Northern Illinois       20 13.0
 88%   1 Oklahoma                40 42.3,    35 Bowling Green           24 16.7
 87%  42 Lehigh                  25 39.1,   152 Stony Brook              2 15.9
 87%  36 Villanova               20 33.4,   121 Bucknell                14 12.1
 87%  24 Tennessee               42 32.5,   100 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 10.6
 87%  22 Ohio State              27 36.2,   105 Cincinnati               6 13.4
 86%  86 Southern Illinois       42 36.4,   185 Southeast Missouri Sta   3 15.6
 86%  33 Utah                    41 38.8,   128 Texas A&M               21 16.6
 85% 171 Georgetown              36 36.6,   227 Saint Francis - Pennsy   7 16.0
 85% 114 Towson                  34 31.6,   219 Elon                    13  9.1
 85%  23 Virginia                44 39.3,   141 Temple                  14 16.8
 84% 174 Wagner                  35 33.0,   230 La Salle                28 14.0
 84% 125 Alabama - Birmingham    56 32.7,   197 Baylor                  14 15.1
 84% 124 Hampton                 38 34.9,   201 Jackson State           19 16.3
 84% 106 Monmouth                44 26.6,   218 Saint Peter's            3  6.3
 84%   4 Louisiana State         22 31.5,    32 Oregon State            21 13.5
 83%  45 Boston College          19 37.2,   168 Ball State              11 18.6
 81%  29 Purdue                  51 33.2,    79 Syracuse                 0 17.5
 80%  28 Clemson                 37 34.0,    70 Wake Forest             30 19.4
 79% 131 Stanford                43 32.9,   188 San Jose State           3 19.7
 79%  30 Nebraska                56 32.9,    68 Western Illinois        17 19.5
 79%  27 Minnesota               63 41.7,    75 Toledo                  21 27.0
 78% 146 Alabama State           27 30.8,   200 Howard                  12 18.9
 78%  89 Duquesne                31 39.9,   189 Holy Cross               7 25.9
 77% 155 Southwest Missouri Sta  31 37.9,   194 Drake                   26 25.5
 77%  96 Kansas                  21 39.7,   147 Tulsa                    3 27.3
 77%  61 Texas Christian         48 28.1,   102 Northwestern            45 17.3
 77%  14 Washington State        21 32.9,    69 New Mexico              17 21.1
 75% 112 San Diego State         38 29.5,   148 Idaho State             21 19.9
 75%  87 Navy                    27 26.8,   123 Duke                    12 17.8
 73% 192 Eastern Michigan        37 25.9,   207 Buffalo                 34 17.7
 73%  21 California              56 35.3,    71 Air Force               14 25.9
 72% 130 Illinois                52 26.2,   160 Florida A&M             13 18.5
 72%  74 South Carolina          31 29.2,   135 Vanderbilt               6 20.9
 69%  73 Penn State              48 31.7,    90 Akron                   10 24.7
 64% 181 Indiana                 41 28.5,   187 Central Michigan        10 23.8
 64%  34 Oklahoma State          31 28.3,    66 California - Los Angel  20 23.4
 62%  92 Louisville              28 31.7,    95 Kentucky                 0 27.8
 61% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   49 17.9,   229 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 15.1
 61% 158 Louisiana Tech          38 30.7,   154 Nevada - Reno           21 27.5
 61% 133 Nicholls State          37 33.6,   132 Eastern Washington      14 30.5
 61%   7 Michigan                43 23.9,     8 Miami - Ohio            10 20.2
 60%  47 Montana                 27 24.9,    43 Maine                   20 22.6
 59%  57 Colorado                27 29.7,    51 Colorado State          24 27.7

 45% 180 Mississippi State       28 31.3,   150 Tulane                   7 32.3
 44% 190 Ohio                    42 25.0,   170 Virginia Military       14 26.2
 44% 129 Wyoming                 53 24.7,   110 Appalachian State        7 25.8
 44% 122 North Carolina          49 34.2,    98 William & Mary          38 35.5
 41%  59 McNeese State           35 27.4,    65 Southern                17 29.5
 40% 151 Rice                    10 34.1,   137 Houston                  7 36.7
 37% 167 Northern Colorado       15 12.9,    97 North Dakota State      13 21.3
 36% 169 Tennessee State         42 21.2,   120 Alabama A&M              7 25.7
 32% 156 Arizona                 21 21.3,   103 Northern Arizona         3 27.9
 31% 203 Central Connecticut     27 24.5,   163 Sacred Heart             6 31.8
 30% 118 Rutgers                 19 25.5,    62 Michigan State          14 33.2
 29% 109 Florida Atlantic        35 29.1,    81 Hawaii                  28 37.4
 27% 101 Fresno State            35 19.0,    78 Washington              16 27.3
 25% 212 Tennessee Tech          32 21.5,   173 Gardner - Webb          26 31.4
 24% 202 Louisiana - Lafayette   14 19.3,   134 Northwestern State       7 29.9
 24% 164 Iowa State              23 19.3,    82 Northern Iowa            0 29.7
 24% 153 Hofstra                 45 20.0,    77 Albany                   0 30.8
 23% 143 Brigham Young           20 14.8,    63 Notre Dame              17 26.1
 22% 178 Alcorn State            34 24.2,   117 Grambling               23 37.2
 21% 193 Southern Utah           34 16.8,   145 Weber State             31 29.7
 18% 127 Rhode Island            37 21.2,    48 Fordham                 36 39.2
 18%  72 Memphis State           20 19.4,    25 Mississippi             13 35.6
 16% 136 Troy State              17 10.1,    56 Marshall                15 27.9
 13% 116 New Hampshire           24 17.9,    15 Delaware                21 44.5
 10% 217 Coastal Carolina        28  8.7,   111 Morehead State           7 38.5
  9% 239 Prairie View            25  8.6,   213 Texas Southern           7 52.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 0.25  13 1.09  25 0.79  34 0.99  10 0.99   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  89  63  69.6 0.90

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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