2004 Week 2 (9-11 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 101 Tennessee State         27 48.7,   232 Tennessee - Martin      13  6.5
 92%  99 Southern                17 55.0,   234 Mississippi Valley Sta  14  5.0
 92%  70 Monmouth                34 45.5,   223 La Salle                15  4.1
 92%  35 Memphis State           52 53.0,   219 Tennessee - Chattanoog  21  4.8
 92%  29 Bowling Green           49 51.3,   197 Southeast Missouri Sta  10  6.7
 92%  23 Maryland                45 43.5,   144 Temple                  22 10.2
 92%   8 Louisiana State         53 60.2,   207 Arkansas State           3  3.3
 92%   6 California              41 64.8,   191 New Mexico State        14  8.5
 92%   5 Purdue                  59 45.7,   140 Ball State               7  2.6
 92%   2 Oklahoma                63 57.0,   154 Houston                 13  6.2
 91% 135 Alabama State           55 49.2,   235 Texas Southern          15  5.6
 91%  39 Louisville              52 45.4,   213 Army                    21  6.8
 91%  15 Florida                 49 54.4,   187 Eastern Michigan        10  9.1
 91%  10 Minnesota               37 54.6,   147 Illinois State          21 15.2
 90%  95 Michigan State          24 40.8,   210 Central Michigan         7 11.2
 90%  69 Texas Christian         44 42.0,   200 Southern Methodist       0 10.0
 90%  30 Oklahoma State          38 41.5,   157 Tulsa                   21  8.8
 90%   3 Southern California     49 39.8,    71 Colorado State           0 11.3
 88%  56 Maine                   38 37.2,   168 Northern Colorado        0 10.5
 87%  92 South Florida           21 40.1,   196 Tennessee Tech           7 15.2
 87%  26 Ohio State              24 32.0,   104 Marshall                21 10.0
 86% 162 Southwest Missouri Sta  33 38.7,   220 Sam Houston State       31 18.0
 86% 122 Hampton                 47 31.5,   205 Howard                  14 12.1
 86%  87 Dayton                  28 29.0,   189 Morehead State           0  6.0
 86%  45 West Virginia           45 39.0,   175 Central Florida         20 17.8
 86%  21 Virginia                56 45.1,    94 North Carolina          24 22.9
 85% 150 Coastal Carolina        31 37.4,   222 Davidson                24 16.0
 85%  51 Connecticut             22 35.8,   128 Duke                    20 16.9
 84%  78 Rhode Island            39 36.5,   163 Central Connecticut      7 17.4
 84%  68 Wake Forest             31 47.5,   192 East Carolina           17 24.8
 84%  25 Auburn                  43 28.3,   141 Mississippi State       14  6.4
 84%  20 Virginia Tech           63 34.4,   107 Western Michigan         0  7.8
 82%  89 San Diego               37 42.7,   203 Holy Cross              31 22.5
 82%  67 Furman                  45 32.2,   164 Samford                 10 16.2
 82%  47 Pittsburgh              24 36.4,   131 Ohio                     3 17.1
 81% 145 Kent State              38 40.8,   215 Liberty                 10 22.2
 80%  49 Delaware                21 27.3,   118 Towson                  17 10.6
 79%  73 Lafayette               17 33.0,   153 Georgetown               6 19.4
 79%  61 Wisconsin               18 29.2,   113 Nevada - Las Vegas       3 16.3
 79%  24 Iowa                    17 23.6,    77 Iowa State              10  5.8
 78%  93 Stephen F. Austin       24 29.6,   139 Northern Arizona        17 16.7
 78%  36 Utah                    23 24.6,   112 Arizona                  6 11.2
 78%   1 Texas                   22 37.1,    17 Arkansas                20 23.8
 77% 129 Louisiana Tech          24 29.7,   174 Louisiana - Lafayette   20 18.0
 77% 120 Air Force               42 33.8,   160 Eastern Washington      20 22.0
 77%  98 Fordham                 14 33.8,   179 Albany                   0 22.0
 76% 176 Tulane                  39 30.8,   201 Florida A&M             19 20.8
 76%  80 Florida Atlantic        20 28.1,   158 North Texas             13 16.1
 76%  11 Boise State             53 38.5,    27 Oregon State            34 27.5
 75% 143 Syracuse                37 32.0,   209 Buffalo                 17 20.1
 74% 172 Nevada - Reno           59 31.4,   198 Sacramento State         7 22.0
 74%  85 Kansas                  63 30.8,   117 Toledo                  14 20.4
 73% 119 Bethune - Cookman       27 30.8,   182 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   14 20.5
 72%  44 Wofford                 24 26.3,   108 South Carolina State    22 18.6
 72%  28 Massachusetts           30 24.1,    43 Colgate                 20 15.4
 71%  83 Stanford                37 22.9,   111 Brigham Young           10 15.8
 71%  34 Alabama                 28 28.9,    53 Mississippi              7 20.6
 69% 169 Utah State              14 32.5,   188 Idaho                    7 25.3
 67% 183 Wagner                  28 24.8,   217 Marist                  13 18.9
 67%  14 Georgia                 20 25.7,    40 South Carolina          16 19.2
 64%  42 Montana                 41 25.0,    50 Hofstra                 23 19.5
 63% 130 Alcorn State            16 23.3,   134 North Carolina A&T      13 19.0
 63%  57 Northern Illinois       23 28.4,    62 Southern Illinois       22 23.8
 61%  75 New Mexico              27 34.0,    74 Texas Tech              24 30.4
 61%  60 New Hampshire           35 30.7,    90 Rutgers                 24 27.6
 60% 171 Northwestern State      28 20.9,   199 Jackson State           20 18.4
 56%  13 Miami - Florida         16 20.5,     9 Florida State           10 19.5
 54% 186 Richmond                34 19.9,   206 Virginia Military        7 19.2
 52%  84 Arizona State           30 29.3,    97 Northwestern            21 28.8

 39% 181 Alabama A&M             21 23.2,   151 Grambling                9 25.9
 39%  91 Troy State              24 19.9,    55 Missouri                14 22.7
 39%  63 Boston College          21 17.6,    31 Penn State               7 20.5
 38% 156 California Poly         35 29.3,   152 Idaho State             20 32.7
 38%  81 California - Los Angel  35 22.1,    76 Illinois                17 26.3
 37% 180 Appalachian State       49 23.2,   138 Eastern Kentucky        21 27.8
 37% 170 Florida International   22 17.0,   165 Youngstown State        16 21.0
 37% 149 Middle Tennessee State  31 36.2,   136 Akron                   24 41.1
 37%  52 Villanova               22 15.6,    46 Lehigh                  16 19.6
 33% 225 Saint Francis - Pennsy  35 18.5,   202 Sacred Heart            28 24.7
 33% 214 Texas - El Paso         32 24.8,   184 Weber State              0 31.3
 31% 237 Savannah State          41 20.8,   233 Norfolk State           34 27.5
 31% 190 Gardner - Webb          56 29.6,   166 Morgan State            49 37.0
 30% 161 Western Carolina        28 21.6,   106 Nicholls State           7 28.9
 27%  82 Navy                    28 20.5,    32 Northeastern            24 29.4
 26% 125 Texas A&M               31 28.8,    54 Wyoming                  0 38.9
 26% 102 Cincinnati              45 20.3,    38 Miami - Ohio            26 30.2
 24%  66 Georgia Tech            28 14.2,    33 Clemson                 24 24.2
 23%  48 Colorado                20 20.4,    19 Washington State        12 32.1
 22% 221 Indiana State           33  7.3,   193 Eastern Illinois        30 20.0
 22% 137 Robert Morris           34 15.1,    65 Duquesne                14 27.2
 20% 126 Indiana                 30 17.2,    64 Oregon                  24 33.3
 15% 239 Valparaiso              24 12.5,   227 Austin Peay             14 30.7
 14%  72 Southern Mississippi    21  7.0,    12 Nebraska                17 29.7
 13%  58 Fresno State            45  9.8,     7 Kansas State            21 34.7
 11%  96 Notre Dame              28 12.0,     4 Michigan                20 40.5
  9% 229 Southeast Louisiana     51 13.2,    37 McNeese State           17 66.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.85  22 0.64  29 0.91  23 0.97  19 1.04   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  96  69  74.4 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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