prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 157 Northwestern State 52 49.1, 238 Texas Southern 6 4.2
92% 53 Lehigh 34 44.3, 219 Liberty 16 7.5
92% 52 Penn State 37 38.1, 182 Central Florida 13 5.8
92% 36 Memphis State 47 47.7, 201 Arkansas State 35 14.9
92% 35 Colorado 52 36.7, 154 North Texas 21 8.2
92% 32 Washington State 49 40.8, 187 Idaho 8 3.6
92% 27 Oklahoma State 59 51.5, 212 Southern Methodist 7 3.8
92% 21 Arkansas 49 58.0, 205 Northeast Louisiana 20 10.8
92% 16 Virginia 51 52.7, 161 Akron 0 15.0
92% 12 Fresno State 27 52.8, 175 Portland State 17 6.3
92% 7 Boise State 47 55.4, 169 Texas - El Paso 31 14.5
92% 3 Virginia Tech 41 46.6, 117 Duke 17 2.7
92% 2 Oklahoma 31 55.5, 98 Oregon 7 11.2
92% 1 Southern California 42 55.2, 147 Brigham Young 10 5.6
91% 77 Missouri 48 42.7, 189 Ball State 0 16.5
91% 30 Kansas State 40 44.0, 181 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 4.3
91% 18 Alabama 52 40.5, 128 Western Carolina 0 7.4
90% 99 South Carolina State 55 51.3, 234 Savannah State 20 8.6
90% 61 Harvard 35 44.6, 192 Holy Cross 0 16.2
90% 14 Michigan 24 36.6, 93 San Diego State 21 9.3
90% 8 Miami - Florida 48 45.1, 141 Louisiana Tech 0 5.5
89% 79 Mississippi 26 33.8, 179 Vanderbilt 23 8.2
89% 11 Georgia 13 38.9, 81 Marshall 3 16.1
88% 101 Tennessee State 21 37.4, 200 Jackson State 20 16.5
88% 34 South Carolina 34 27.6, 125 South Florida 3 5.5
87% 163 Southern 42 49.5, 239 Prairie View 12 6.5
87% 113 Nevada - Reno 38 41.3, 203 Buffalo 13 18.2
87% 105 Bucknell 15 33.3, 195 Cornell 9 9.9
87% 102 Brown 35 27.5, 188 Albany 7 7.4
87% 42 Utah 48 34.0, 153 Utah State 6 13.9
86% 158 Alabama A&M 30 30.4, 218 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 9.3
85% 138 Jacksonville State 65 42.4, 227 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 20.9
85% 67 Wake Forest 42 35.1, 156 North Carolina A&T 3 14.6
85% 44 Furman 38 38.3, 164 Gardner - Webb 6 18.1
85% 9 Florida State 34 38.8, 90 Alabama - Birmingham 7 12.4
84% 152 Houston 35 41.0, 224 Army 21 18.3
83% 135 Temple 38 37.8, 196 Florida A&M 7 20.6
83% 66 Miami - Ohio 40 36.2, 145 Ohio 20 16.6
82% 142 Illinois State 35 33.6, 199 Eastern Illinois 31 16.9
82% 55 Colgate 17 33.9, 126 Dartmouth 15 17.0
81% 106 Illinois 30 33.9, 167 Western Michigan 27 17.5
81% 60 Western Kentucky 21 37.8, 162 Eastern Kentucky 8 20.9
81% 46 Wisconsin 9 22.7, 133 Arizona 7 8.5
81% 31 Fordham 17 33.4, 140 Columbia 14 13.0
80% 209 Morehead State 15 23.1, 232 Butler 7 6.1
79% 56 Navy 29 33.3, 155 Tulsa 0 18.7
79% 43 Maine 9 29.2, 129 Mississippi State 7 15.0
79% 17 Pennsylvania 61 38.5, 88 San Diego 18 23.1
78% 215 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 32.4, 231 Valparaiso 13 19.5
78% 19 Minnesota 34 41.4, 82 Colorado State 16 29.3
73% 221 Elon 49 25.3, 230 Delaware State 13 16.9
73% 38 Oregon State 17 33.9, 58 New Mexico 7 24.6
72% 122 Rutgers 29 29.7, 146 Kent State 21 21.2
71% 194 Central Michigan 44 25.8, 206 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 18.2
67% 193 Central Connecticut 30 23.1, 223 Saint Peter's 15 16.6
67% 132 Appalachian State 28 29.6, 149 The Citadel 14 22.8
67% 123 Duquesne 45 22.0, 144 Georgetown 7 15.9
65% 89 Stephen F. Austin 24 23.9, 136 Northern Iowa 21 18.8
65% 69 California - Los Angel 37 26.9, 107 Washington 31 22.0
64% 183 Tennessee Tech 16 24.4, 216 Virginia Military 10 19.1
63% 202 Indiana State 28 27.1, 207 Murray State 21 22.5
63% 94 Hampton 40 41.3, 114 Western Illinois 20 36.3
62% 74 Iowa State 48 20.0, 71 Northern Illinois 41 16.7
61% 78 Florida Atlantic 27 28.5, 108 Middle Tennessee State 20 25.6
61% 63 Boston College 27 26.4, 65 Connecticut 7 23.2
61% 28 Nebraska 24 21.5, 62 Pittsburgh 17 18.2
60% 177 McNeese State 24 20.7, 176 Youngstown State 20 17.9
60% 70 Texas Tech 70 39.1, 59 Texas Christian 35 36.8
57% 85 Monmouth 29 16.5, 103 Robert Morris 27 15.2
56% 91 Air Force 27 21.9, 115 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 20.6
56% 57 Notre Dame 31 18.7, 87 Michigan State 24 17.8
52% 170 Toledo 42 32.8, 185 Eastern Michigan 32 32.3
48% 165 Wagner 21 19.3, 148 Stony Brook 13 19.7
47% 120 Kentucky 51 19.3, 96 Indiana 32 19.9
46% 68 Arizona State 44 19.5, 37 Iowa 7 20.1
45% 20 Tennessee 30 28.6, 13 Florida 28 29.6
40% 143 Grambling 24 25.6, 134 Bethune - Cookman 23 28.2
39% 110 Princeton 35 18.2, 75 Lafayette 18 21.0
39% 45 West Virginia 19 29.4, 26 Maryland 16 32.6
38% 130 Rice 41 23.8, 92 Hawaii 29 27.7
37% 24 Auburn 10 13.1, 10 Louisiana State 9 17.2
35% 186 Idaho State 49 24.3, 172 Northern Colorado 42 30.0
32% 208 Sacred Heart 48 22.6, 173 Iona 7 29.3
31% 213 San Jose State 47 33.9, 166 Morgan State 28 41.6
31% 100 Georgia Southern 58 25.5, 51 Wofford 14 32.2
30% 23 Ohio State 22 19.1, 15 North Carolina State 14 26.9
29% 131 California Poly 27 13.8, 109 Montana State 14 21.1
29% 95 Texas A&M 27 24.0, 41 Clemson 6 32.5
26% 235 Tennessee - Martin 31 12.4, 233 Austin Peay 14 20.2
26% 124 Syracuse 19 23.6, 54 Cincinnati 7 34.0
24% 112 North Carolina 34 25.3, 47 Georgia Tech 13 35.4
23% 222 Sacramento State 23 27.0, 171 Southern Utah 17 37.8
22% 80 Yale 24 18.8, 29 Dayton 17 32.3
20% 127 William & Mary 9 27.6, 76 New Hampshire 7 41.0
20% 118 Northwestern 20 22.4, 33 Kansas 17 36.9
14% 237 Charleston Southern 38 15.0, 225 Jacksonville 3 35.7
14% 191 New Mexico State 22 11.3, 86 Troy State 18 30.5
14% 116 James Madison 17 10.6, 40 Villanova 0 29.5
13% 204 Howard 17 11.6, 121 Alcorn State 10 31.3
12% 211 Sam Houston State 41 19.8, 49 Montana 29 52.2
8% 137 Richmond 24 5.6, 25 Massachusetts 14 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.08 22 0.85 17 0.70 32 0.95 20 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 72 78.1 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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