2004 Week 4 (23-25 Sep) Forecast for College Football Division IA & IAA

                                                                   ave score ROUNDED
rank projected winning team         rank projected losing team     TO NEAREST 3.5 POINTS
 --- ----------------------          --- ----------------------    ---------------------

90-100% chance of victory:

   7 Miami - Florida           over  135 Houston                    45.5 to 10.5
  20 Auburn                    over  188 The Citadel                45.5 to  3.5
  67 Dayton                    over  234 Austin Peay                49.0 to  3.5
 130 Bethune - Cookman         over  237 Norfolk State              59.5 to 14.0
  16 Boise State               over  144 Brigham Young              49.0 to 17.5
  85 Connecticut               over  224 Army                       49.0 to 14.0
  82 Southern Illinois         over  233 Delaware State             52.5 to  7.0
   4 Purdue                    over  110 Illinois                   45.5 to 14.0
  10 Louisiana State           over  141 Mississippi State          42.0 to  3.5
  13 Minnesota                 over  117 Northwestern               49.0 to 17.5
  62 Hampton                   over  204 Morgan State               56.0 to 28.0
  91 Oregon                    over  195 Idaho                      35.0 to 10.5
 102 Robert Morris             over  214 Saint Francis - Pennsylv   38.5 to 14.0
 169 Southern                  over  236 South Dakota State         45.5 to  7.0
  17 Tennessee                 over  157 Louisiana Tech             49.0 to 14.0
  39 Georgia Southern          over  232 Tennessee - Chattanooga    66.5 to 21.0
   3 Texas                     over  104 Rice                       45.5 to  3.5
 142 Nicholls State            over  238 Texas Southern             49.0 to 10.5
   5 Virginia                  over  107 Syracuse                   45.5 to  7.0
  94 William & Mary            over  210 Virginia Military          38.5 to  7.0

80-90% chance of victory:

  26 Washington State          over  126 Arizona                    28.0 to  7.0
 138 California - Davis        over  212 Sacramento State           38.5 to 17.5
  81 Colgate                   over  174 Georgetown                 31.5 to 10.5
  50 Yale                      over  187 Cornell                    38.5 to 14.0
  29 Maryland                  over  120 Duke                       31.5 to 14.0
  71 Cincinnati                over  189 East Carolina              38.5 to 21.0
  11 Florida                   over   99 Kentucky                   42.0 to 17.5
  87 Florida Atlantic          over  143 Illinois State             31.5 to 17.5
  12 Florida State             over   89 Clemson                    35.0 to 10.5
 182 Howard                    over  231 Savannah State             35.0 to  7.0
 202 Indiana State             over  229 Tennessee - Martin         31.5 to 14.0
 192 Jackson State             over  223 Mississippi Valley State   31.5 to 17.5
  23 Michigan                  over   78 Iowa                       31.5 to 14.0
 101 Montana                   over  181 Northern Colorado          38.5 to 17.5
  41 Navy                      over  132 Vanderbilt                 31.5 to 10.5
  55 New Mexico                over  172 New Mexico State           35.0 to 10.5
 134 Northern Arizona          over  203 Weber State                31.5 to 14.0
  46 Notre Dame                over  136 Washington                 38.5 to 17.5
 123 Tennessee State           over  207 Florida A&M                35.0 to 17.5
 139 Ohio                      over  219 Buffalo                    38.5 to 14.0
   8 Pennsylvania              over   80 Villanova                  38.5 to  7.0
  32 South Carolina            over  105 Troy State                 24.5 to  7.0
   1 Southern California       over   69 Stanford                   42.0 to  7.0
  73 Stephen F. Austin         over  183 Southern Utah              38.5 to 14.0
  21 Utah                      over   76 Air Force                  31.5 to 14.0
 228 Valparaiso                over  239 Jacksonville               31.5 to 10.5
   6 Virginia Tech             over   24 North Carolina State       35.0 to 21.0
 152 Youngstown State          over  211 Liberty                    35.0 to 17.5

70-80% chance of victory:

 149 Kent State                over  197 Akron                      35.0 to 24.5
  22 Bowling Green             over   86 Northern Illinois          42.0 to 31.5
 108 Alabama State             over  166 Alcorn State               35.0 to 24.5
  27 Arizona State             over   44 Oregon State               31.5 to 21.0
 147 Western Michigan          over  205 Ball State                 31.5 to 21.0
 171 North Texas               over  220 Baylor                     31.5 to 21.0
  88 Colorado State            over  154 Montana State              24.5 to 10.5
 199 Drake                     over  216 Morehead State             28.0 to 17.5
  98 Jacksonville State        over  163 Eastern Kentucky           35.0 to 24.5
  37 Western Kentucky          over  137 Florida International      28.0 to 10.5
  59 Fordham                   over   84 Duquesne                   24.5 to 17.5
 106 Monmouth                  over  155 Stony Brook                24.5 to 10.5
 180 Tennessee Tech            over  218 Murray State               28.0 to 21.0
 133 Nevada - Las Vegas        over  186 Utah State                 28.0 to 14.0
 150 Sacred Heart              over  198 Albany                     24.5 to 14.0
  57 San Diego State           over   93 Nevada - Reno              28.0 to 17.5
 175 San Jose State            over  215 Southern Methodist         28.0 to 17.5
  95 Texas Christian           over  146 South Florida              35.0 to 21.0
  60 Southern Mississippi      over  151 Tulane                     31.5 to 17.5
  43 Wisconsin                 over   64 Penn State                 21.0 to 14.0

60-70% chance of victory:

  58 Memphis                   over   96 Alabama - Birmingham       31.5 to 24.5
  31 Harvard                   over   65 Brown                      21.0 to 17.5
 103 Dartmouth                 over  100 New Hampshire              21.0 to 21.0
 226 Davidson                  over  227 Butler                     24.5 to 21.0
 200 Eastern Michigan          over  201 Eastern Illinois           35.0 to 31.5
 158 Eastern Washington        over  161 Idaho State                42.0 to 38.5
  74 Rhode Island              over  116 Hofstra                    31.5 to 28.0
 165 Alabama A&M               over  190 Arkansas - Pine Bluff      21.0 to 17.5
  38 Louisville                over   68 North Carolina             38.5 to 35.0
 193 North Carolina A&T        over  191 Elon                       21.0 to 17.5
 113 Richmond                  over  111 Lafayette                  21.0 to 17.5
  79 Princeton                 over  131 San Diego                  35.0 to 28.0
 196 Samford                   over  209 Southeast Missouri State   31.5 to 28.0
 112 Temple                    over  164 Toledo                     38.5 to 31.5
 176 Tulsa                     over  170 Southwest Missouri State   21.0 to 21.0
  40 Wake Forest               over   47 Boston College             24.5 to 21.0
  36 West Virginia             over   66 James Madison              24.5 to 14.0

50-60% chance of victory:

 225 La Salle                  over  230 Saint Peter's              28.0 to 28.0
  19 Arkansas                  over   14 Alabama                    31.5 to 28.0
 140 Bucknell                  over  118 Columbia                   17.5 to 17.5
 156 Wagner                    over  177 Central Connecticut        21.0 to 17.5
 167 Western Carolina          over  178 Gardner - Webb             24.5 to 24.5
 109 Michigan State            over  119 Indiana                    28.0 to 28.0
  33 Texas Tech                over   51 Kansas                     35.0 to 35.0
 122 Middle Tennessee State    over  145 Louisiana - Lafayette      21.0 to 21.0
 222 Marist                    over  213 Iona                       24.5 to 24.5
  72 Massachusetts             over   61 Delaware                   21.0 to 21.0
 185 Arkansas State            over  208 Northeast Louisiana        38.5 to 35.0
 128 Northwestern State        over  115 Appalachian State          24.5 to 24.5
  35 Furman                    over   53 Pittsburgh                 17.5 to 17.5
 168 Portland State            over  160 McNeese State              24.5 to 24.5
 162 Sam Houston State         over  179 Southeast Louisiana        38.5 to 38.5
  45 Northeastern              over   75 Towson                     21.0 to 17.5
  97 Wyoming                   over   83 Mississippi                21.0 to 21.0

NOTE: the above scores are rounded to the nearest 3.5 points. Exact predicted scores are not released until after game time

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