prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 139 Monmouth 40 41.3, 231 Iona 14 9.0
92% 113 California Poly 14 42.0, 224 South Dakota State 7 6.3
92% 112 Wofford 56 58.2, 234 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 12.2
92% 75 Dayton 45 46.6, 221 Davidson 27 5.2
92% 42 Furman 31 37.8, 163 Western Carolina 10 7.7
92% 40 Western Kentucky 44 35.1, 178 Youngstown State 19 3.5
92% 37 Boise State 38 51.0, 203 Southern Methodist 20 9.4
92% 30 Georgia Southern 48 57.6, 197 Elon 14 17.6
92% 18 Pennsylvania 35 42.6, 134 Dartmouth 0 11.2
92% 12 Louisville 59 50.1, 181 East Carolina 7 5.3
92% 5 Florida State 38 49.5, 120 North Carolina 16 13.5
92% 4 Texas 44 64.8, 195 Baylor 14 4.6
91% 156 Grambling 53 46.5, 238 Prairie View 32 8.3
91% 92 Wyoming 31 44.8, 212 Northeast Louisiana 10 16.9
91% 62 Fordham 42 38.5, 190 Holy Cross 35 12.8
91% 61 Northern Illinois 49 44.8, 165 Akron 19 19.4
91% 47 Lehigh 44 28.1, 160 Albany 14 3.5
90% 171 Drake 20 60.2, 239 Jacksonville 7 19.6
90% 7 Miami - Florida 27 28.3, 94 Georgia Tech 3 6.7
89% 90 Texas Christian 21 50.8, 215 Army 17 25.7
89% 83 Montana 42 43.2, 209 Weber State 21 19.8
88% 182 Alabama A&M 22 35.2, 233 Texas Southern 3 11.2
87% 142 Appalachian State 41 40.4, 218 Texas State - San Marc 34 17.6
87% 119 Northern Arizona 26 43.7, 217 Sacramento State 0 18.1
87% 102 Mississippi 28 40.4, 186 Arkansas State 21 19.9
87% 41 Southern Illinois 40 27.5, 124 Northern Iowa 36 7.5
87% 23 Oklahoma State 36 37.6, 89 Iowa State 7 17.6
87% 13 Michigan 35 42.6, 116 Indiana 14 21.2
87% 1 Oklahoma 28 42.8, 27 Texas Tech 13 22.6
86% 107 Jacksonville State 35 40.4, 206 Murray State 14 17.2
86% 55 Stanford 27 37.6, 143 Washington 13 16.9
86% 17 Minnesota 16 34.2, 74 Penn State 7 15.7
84% 199 Tennessee Tech 49 33.8, 227 Tennessee - Martin 20 15.6
84% 131 Bethune - Cookman 51 43.4, 216 Morgan State 21 27.8
84% 64 Princeton 27 32.1, 162 Columbia 26 13.0
83% 69 Memphis 41 43.4, 137 Houston 14 26.7
81% 19 North Carolina State 27 32.9, 58 Wake Forest 21 17.3
81% 2 Purdue 41 34.8, 38 Notre Dame 16 20.2
80% 141 Duke 28 31.5, 196 The Citadel 10 17.4
80% 108 Towson 21 19.8, 153 Cornell 11 7.1
80% 106 Bucknell 35 25.4, 187 Georgetown 19 11.4
79% 130 Toledo 52 38.3, 180 Ball State 14 24.6
79% 56 Bowling Green 70 37.0, 135 Temple 16 24.0
79% 9 California 49 36.7, 63 Oregon State 7 24.3
79% 8 Virginia Tech 19 33.2, 31 West Virginia 13 19.3
78% 214 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 36.1, 226 La Salle 42 23.8
78% 52 Wisconsin 24 28.1, 97 Illinois 7 16.0
78% 45 Boston College 29 21.1, 80 Massachusetts 7 11.0
77% 76 North Dakota State 24 19.8, 140 Nicholls State 14 10.0
77% 44 Southern Mississippi 27 24.7, 114 South Florida 20 14.9
77% 29 Delaware 43 23.1, 60 Maine 38 11.7
76% 161 Texas - El Paso 45 30.0, 194 New Mexico State 0 19.7
76% 121 Vanderbilt 31 26.7, 159 Mississippi State 13 16.3
76% 32 Nebraska 14 27.1, 53 Kansas 8 17.2
76% 26 Arizona State 28 31.7, 79 Oregon 13 21.3
75% 117 Troy State 49 23.3, 152 Utah State 21 14.4
74% 95 Syracuse 41 25.7, 127 Rutgers 31 17.2
72% 10 Utah 28 26.6, 48 New Mexico 7 18.2
71% 228 Butler 21 16.6, 232 Austin Peay 14 10.2
70% 122 California - Davis 30 33.7, 169 Northern Colorado 20 26.3
70% 77 Iowa 38 24.8, 91 Michigan State 16 17.7
67% 219 Southeast Louisiana 33 32.7, 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 26.2
67% 191 Eastern Illinois 35 34.2, 204 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 28.3
66% 175 Southern Utah 56 29.3, 211 McNeese State 14 23.5
66% 54 California - Los Angel 33 21.7, 65 San Diego State 10 16.7
65% 174 Central Connecticut 28 28.5, 185 Marist 13 22.8
65% 128 South Carolina State 30 28.9, 150 Tennessee State 13 23.5
65% 50 Navy 24 31.6, 98 Air Force 21 25.7
64% 123 Hawaii 44 35.7, 129 Tulsa 16 30.8
63% 66 Marshall 33 26.2, 72 Miami - Ohio 25 21.9
61% 24 Florida 45 29.0, 22 Arkansas 30 25.8
59% 172 Eastern Kentucky 39 33.0, 198 Samford 36 30.9
54% 46 Texas A&M 42 25.5, 39 Kansas State 30 24.8
52% 158 Montana State 17 32.6, 176 Idaho State 13 32.3
52% 86 Brown 20 35.3, 100 Rhode Island 13 35.0
51% 71 Harvard 38 25.8, 87 Lafayette 23 25.5
48% 73 Alabama - Birmingham 30 23.4, 88 Cincinnati 27 23.7
46% 205 Idaho 45 27.0, 210 Eastern Michigan 41 27.9
44% 179 Central Michigan 24 22.6, 155 Kent State 21 23.7
42% 173 Sacred Heart 30 19.4, 148 Wagner 24 20.8
40% 220 Morehead State 29 22.3, 213 Valparaiso 23 24.7
40% 109 James Madison 31 24.0, 81 Hofstra 21 26.8
39% 229 Charleston Southern 25 15.0, 223 Virginia Military 24 18.8
39% 110 Robert Morris 31 19.5, 111 Stony Brook 24 22.7
39% 14 Auburn 34 17.9, 21 Tennessee 10 20.5
38% 82 Connecticut 29 23.1, 49 Pittsburgh 17 26.9
38% 59 Missouri 17 28.8, 33 Colorado 9 32.4
37% 157 Nevada - Las Vegas 48 19.4, 118 Nevada - Reno 13 24.2
37% 15 Georgia 45 14.5, 6 Louisiana State 16 18.1
35% 208 Liberty 17 29.3, 170 Gardner - Webb 9 34.3
34% 151 Louisiana - Lafayette 43 16.7, 138 Florida International 34 21.8
34% 70 William & Mary 38 20.0, 34 Northeastern 35 25.5
32% 189 Southwest Missouri Sta 36 30.6, 133 Western Illinois 31 38.3
31% 103 Yale 31 17.2, 43 Colgate 28 25.0
31% 68 New Hampshire 51 17.2, 51 Villanova 40 23.7
30% 145 Eastern Washington 41 23.8, 125 Portland State 21 30.9
28% 36 South Carolina 20 15.0, 20 Alabama 3 22.2
27% 202 Indiana State 41 25.0, 149 Illinois State 38 33.4
26% 200 North Texas 30 22.8, 147 Middle Tennessee State 21 31.7
22% 126 Brigham Young 31 16.4, 78 Colorado State 21 28.2
21% 222 Buffalo 48 20.2, 177 Central Florida 20 32.8
21% 136 Ohio 28 15.2, 84 Kentucky 16 28.4
18% 201 San Jose State 70 18.9, 105 Rice 63 34.9
14% 104 Northwestern 33 11.5, 16 Ohio State 27 31.1
13% 235 Norfolk State 27 11.9, 193 North Carolina A&T 14 37.7
10% 154 Louisiana Tech 28 18.9, 28 Fresno State 21 42.6
8% 236 Delaware State 28 6.3, 57 Hampton 23 64.3
8% 207 Southern 42 13.2, 67 Alabama State 41 45.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.82 26 0.71 27 1.01 24 1.02 20 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 76 82.7 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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