prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 171 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 36.4, 236 Texas Southern 0 8.9
92% 114 Bethune - Cookman 45 41.2, 226 Delaware State 16 6.3
92% 109 Jacksonville State 59 48.8, 232 Tennessee - Martin 12 13.9
92% 95 South Carolina State 39 51.9, 231 Norfolk State 14 13.6
92% 80 Duquesne 42 49.6, 225 Iona 14 12.2
92% 8 Auburn 52 40.5, 128 Louisiana Tech 7 5.4
91% 159 Albany 37 44.2, 237 Savannah State 19 9.6
91% 20 Georgia Southern 38 51.6, 170 Western Carolina 16 19.9
90% 86 Dayton 38 42.3, 217 Valparaiso 7 16.0
90% 50 Northern Illinois 30 53.0, 212 Central Florida 28 21.4
90% 49 Southern Mississippi 35 39.3, 147 Houston 29 15.8
90% 40 Harvard 34 34.4, 144 Cornell 24 8.4
90% 17 Bowling Green 38 48.5, 166 Central Michigan 14 17.8
90% 2 Purdue 20 35.8, 62 Penn State 13 12.2
89% 176 Alcorn State 26 45.1, 239 Prairie View 15 14.4
89% 87 Florida Atlantic 20 41.0, 215 Texas State - San Marc 13 15.5
89% 82 Montana 24 48.2, 185 Idaho State 22 26.6
89% 75 William & Mary 37 42.6, 211 Liberty 17 17.5
89% 59 Southern Illinois 37 39.1, 196 Youngstown State 2 13.1
89% 5 Florida State 17 38.3, 72 Syracuse 13 14.6
88% 71 Miami - Ohio 47 40.2, 169 Kent State 27 17.8
88% 51 Alabama - Birmingham 27 35.4, 162 Mississippi State 13 14.9
88% 43 Missouri 30 35.7, 160 Baylor 10 12.6
88% 10 Virginia 30 37.8, 77 Clemson 10 15.3
87% 208 Marist 22 31.7, 234 Saint Peter's 20 12.7
87% 200 Tennessee Tech 52 45.6, 233 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 24.2
87% 140 Grambling 34 41.8, 230 Mississippi Valley Sta 26 19.9
85% 57 Pittsburgh 27 38.0, 156 Temple 22 20.3
85% 55 Lehigh 42 38.6, 167 Holy Cross 14 18.9
85% 38 California - Los Angel 37 27.1, 107 Arizona 17 10.1
84% 92 Alabama State 28 41.0, 180 Jackson State 6 23.8
83% 159 Albany 38 28.9, 219 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 10.6
83% 13 Pennsylvania 32 31.1, 85 Bucknell 25 14.2
82% 106 Hampton 48 37.0, 168 Gardner - Webb 25 20.1
82% 41 Alabama 45 28.2, 129 Kentucky 17 14.0
81% 210 Morehead State 28 21.8, 235 Austin Peay 14 8.6
81% 197 Georgetown 21 29.3, 227 Virginia Military 0 14.1
81% 178 Howard 24 31.9, 224 Charleston Southern 6 14.9
80% 138 Rice 44 31.9, 191 Southern Methodist 10 17.2
79% 136 Western Illinois 29 43.0, 189 Indiana State 27 29.1
79% 119 Wofford 27 33.3, 202 Elon 13 19.0
78% 83 Northwestern 31 36.3, 135 Indiana 24 23.4
77% 42 Western Kentucky 17 32.4, 121 Northern Iowa 10 20.1
77% 29 Texas A&M 34 31.6, 96 Iowa State 3 19.8
76% 113 Hawaii 48 38.9, 146 Nevada - Reno 26 27.8
76% 48 Marshall 16 26.2, 125 Ohio 13 16.0
75% 175 Portland State 31 30.1, 222 Sacramento State 0 20.6
75% 155 Montana State 20 25.8, 199 Weber State 17 15.7
75% 151 Middle Tennessee State 45 36.5, 182 Arkansas State 17 27.5
75% 65 Maine 29 23.9, 130 Richmond 25 15.1
75% 16 Virginia Tech 17 27.3, 56 Wake Forest 10 18.5
74% 154 Illinois State 34 36.2, 186 Southwest Missouri Sta 31 27.5
74% 115 Toledo 59 38.9, 173 Western Michigan 33 30.3
74% 44 Kansas 31 32.0, 68 Kansas State 28 23.0
74% 1 Oklahoma 12 28.6, 9 Texas 0 19.8
73% 23 Texas Tech 70 30.6, 32 Nebraska 10 22.1
73% 3 Southern California 23 33.8, 7 California 17 25.4
72% 103 Lafayette 35 30.2, 150 Columbia 14 22.4
71% 148 Washington 21 41.4, 184 San Jose State 6 32.6
68% 84 Yale 24 27.9, 133 Dartmouth 14 21.6
67% 193 Akron 44 31.1, 204 Buffalo 21 24.5
66% 152 Nicholls State 42 25.2, 201 Florida A&M 25 20.0
65% 126 Monmouth 14 18.5, 153 Wagner 7 14.0
65% 14 Michigan 27 31.5, 18 Minnesota 24 26.2
64% 63 Colgate 29 23.8, 70 Princeton 26 19.1
64% 19 Oklahoma State 42 30.0, 37 Colorado 14 24.8
63% 165 Eastern Kentucky 49 31.2, 174 Eastern Illinois 6 26.7
63% 47 Northeastern 34 26.0, 53 Villanova 30 21.3
63% 46 Notre Dame 23 21.0, 45 Stanford 15 17.3
62% 98 Michigan State 38 28.9, 100 Illinois 25 25.5
61% 198 Murray State 24 33.5, 194 Samford 21 30.3
60% 93 Hofstra 61 30.9, 123 Stony Brook 21 28.6
60% 89 Wyoming 20 20.1, 78 San Diego State 10 17.7
58% 99 James Madison 28 18.8, 88 Massachusetts 7 17.4
57% 81 Air Force 28 23.5, 67 New Mexico 23 22.2
56% 124 Eastern Washington 45 28.1, 112 Northern Arizona 14 27.0
42% 117 Rhode Island 28 20.2, 122 Towson 16 21.9
41% 15 Louisiana State 24 21.9, 21 Florida 21 23.8
39% 192 Eastern Michigan 31 28.7, 195 Ball State 24 31.6
38% 214 Morgan State 28 27.1, 213 North Carolina A&T 26 30.8
38% 206 Northeast Louisiana 16 25.8, 203 Idaho 14 29.4
38% 172 Drake 41 33.3, 137 San Diego 38 37.2
37% 188 Southern 33 18.9, 181 Alabama A&M 24 23.0
36% 73 Brown 27 22.2, 69 Fordham 20 26.7
34% 207 East Carolina 27 27.7, 163 Tulane 25 33.3
33% 183 North Texas 31 26.9, 164 Utah State 23 33.2
32% 127 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 17.5, 116 Brigham Young 20 23.5
31% 223 Southeast Louisiana 26 25.5, 187 Northern Colorado 13 32.9
31% 149 California Poly 24 18.3, 132 Southern Utah 17 26.0
28% 39 Wisconsin 24 11.6, 33 Ohio State 13 18.3
24% 142 Rutgers 37 22.9, 111 Vanderbilt 34 34.2
23% 120 Texas - El Paso 24 16.8, 64 Fresno State 21 30.2
21% 74 Oregon 41 17.3, 34 Washington State 38 30.1
20% 118 North Carolina 30 22.9, 31 North Carolina State 24 37.8
17% 218 New Mexico State 35 16.7, 139 Louisiana - Lafayette 32 33.2
16% 177 Central Connecticut 34 16.3, 110 Robert Morris 21 32.8
16% 157 Florida International 31 17.2, 76 Stephen F. Austin 24 37.2
16% 36 Tennessee 19 16.3, 6 Georgia 14 35.4
14% 143 Appalachian State 30 22.3, 35 Furman 29 41.3
13% 209 Army 48 13.6, 108 Cincinnati 29 34.7
13% 91 Georgia Tech 20 10.3, 26 Maryland 7 29.5
11% 238 Jacksonville 29 18.8, 221 Davidson 26 41.1
9% 216 South Dakota State 24 5.9, 79 North Dakota State 21 31.3
9% 105 Mississippi 31 6.2, 12 South Carolina 28 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.15 24 0.84 25 1.11 38 0.89 11 0.89 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 76 80.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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