prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 193 Alcorn State 30 37.0, 239 Texas Southern 0 5.3
92% 105 Alabama State 42 57.6, 237 Prairie View 20 13.4
92% 102 Hampton 58 53.2, 232 Norfolk State 10 14.3
92% 78 Duquesne 34 49.7, 231 Saint Peter's 8 8.9
92% 46 Furman 33 40.3, 183 The Citadel 14 9.1
92% 25 Pennsylvania 14 44.8, 163 Columbia 3 9.5
92% 20 Virginia Tech 62 50.2, 202 Florida A&M 0 3.2
92% 18 Florida 52 48.2, 151 Middle Tennessee State 16 12.6
92% 16 Bowling Green 51 59.3, 192 Ball State 13 11.2
92% 11 Georgia 33 43.8, 117 Vanderbilt 3 11.3
91% 198 Alabama A&M 44 41.8, 238 Savannah State 12 15.7
91% 49 Memphis 49 43.1, 171 Tulane 24 16.8
91% 22 Georgia Southern 54 53.7, 115 Appalachian State 7 28.1
91% 1 Oklahoma 31 39.3, 53 Kansas State 21 12.1
90% 73 Northern Illinois 42 41.3, 176 Central Michigan 10 16.9
90% 72 Nebraska 59 36.5, 173 Baylor 27 10.8
90% 63 Miami - Ohio 25 46.9, 216 Buffalo 7 18.9
88% 162 Wagner 27 36.5, 225 Iona 14 15.7
87% 197 Samford 34 44.3, 233 Tennessee - Martin 20 22.4
87% 131 Northwestern State 47 37.9, 213 McNeese State 17 17.8
87% 90 Clemson 35 40.8, 177 Utah State 6 19.4
87% 14 Utah 46 39.4, 83 North Carolina 16 18.7
86% 201 Elon 35 47.4, 236 Tennessee - Chattanoog 26 29.1
86% 28 South Carolina 12 30.7, 121 Kentucky 7 12.0
86% 21 Michigan 30 38.7, 113 Illinois 19 19.9
85% 140 Stony Brook 29 35.9, 221 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 17.5
85% 139 San Diego 49 45.7, 220 Valparaiso 14 24.1
85% 106 Florida Atlantic 39 29.1, 199 Northern Colorado 24 11.7
85% 99 Wofford 15 30.8, 169 Western Carolina 12 13.2
85% 52 Georgia Tech 24 29.2, 130 Duke 7 11.3
84% 165 Drake 43 34.1, 230 Butler 6 16.3
84% 4 California 45 36.8, 32 California - Los Angel 28 19.9
82% 104 Jacksonville State 49 31.9, 161 Tennessee State 35 16.6
82% 66 Villanova 49 32.9, 135 Richmond 10 15.6
82% 65 Colorado 19 28.1, 126 Iowa State 14 13.2
82% 34 Boise State 45 40.7, 132 Tulsa 42 25.2
81% 142 California Poly 38 30.6, 200 Texas State - San Marc 21 16.3
80% 81 Marshall 27 32.4, 166 Kent State 17 17.7
80% 68 Oregon 28 32.8, 133 Arizona 14 16.5
80% 62 Colgate 10 31.9, 152 Cornell 6 16.9
80% 26 Alabama 27 29.0, 74 Southern Mississippi 3 14.9
80% 19 Texas 28 25.9, 42 Missouri 20 12.3
78% 157 Sacred Heart 38 31.7, 219 Marist 10 20.1
78% 129 Eastern Kentucky 38 36.9, 203 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 24.9
78% 77 Toledo 31 36.4, 116 Ohio 13 23.3
77% 29 Tennessee 21 31.9, 92 Mississippi 17 21.3
77% 5 Miami - Florida 41 18.5, 12 Louisville 38 8.9
76% 114 Northern Iowa 22 28.1, 184 Youngstown State 20 17.3
76% 3 Southern California 45 29.4, 17 Arizona State 7 19.5
75% 186 Howard 42 36.4, 215 Morgan State 35 26.6
75% 85 Oregon State 29 28.2, 144 Washington 14 18.9
75% 59 Alabama - Birmingham 41 39.4, 89 Texas Christian 25 31.0
75% 9 Auburn 38 26.4, 23 Arkansas 20 17.5
74% 100 South Carolina State 28 28.9, 119 Bethune - Cookman 14 20.4
74% 67 New Mexico 24 21.8, 118 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 14.3
72% 190 Coastal Carolina 21 24.3, 223 Virginia Military 14 16.3
69% 150 Louisiana Tech 41 28.1, 194 Southern Methodist 10 21.3
68% 136 Rutgers 16 33.3, 153 Temple 6 27.0
68% 75 William & Mary 31 32.8, 91 Rhode Island 24 26.3
67% 84 Dayton 29 24.5, 125 Robert Morris 12 19.1
67% 24 West Virginia 31 29.3, 45 Connecticut 19 23.5
64% 168 Akron 26 35.4, 205 Central Florida 21 31.2
63% 138 North Dakota State 27 21.3, 143 Southern Utah 21 17.4
62% 160 Western Illinois 40 40.2, 155 Illinois State 31 36.9
61% 167 Southern 45 26.7, 182 Jackson State 7 23.7
61% 148 Sam Houston State 38 32.0, 145 Nicholls State 10 29.0
61% 50 Southern Illinois 38 23.7, 43 Western Kentucky 10 21.0
60% 122 Monmouth 25 16.3, 147 Albany 24 14.5
60% 10 Florida State 36 22.3, 7 Virginia 3 19.9
59% 235 Jacksonville 31 20.9, 234 Austin Peay 14 19.1
59% 41 Harvard 41 36.0, 36 Northeastern 14 34.2
58% 61 Iowa 33 19.7, 39 Ohio State 7 18.4
58% 33 Delaware 20 34.5, 48 Hofstra 19 32.8
57% 51 Lehigh 30 22.6, 82 Yale 24 21.2
57% 40 Notre Dame 27 20.6, 44 Navy 9 19.5
50% 188 Eastern Michigan 35 35.1, 206 Western Michigan 31 35.1
49% 149 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 41 23.7, 158 Grambling 22 24.0
48% 79 Princeton 24 22.5, 64 Brown 10 22.8
47% 210 Eastern Illinois 24 25.0, 191 Murray State 9 25.6
39% 95 Texas - El Paso 51 30.4, 60 Hawaii 20 33.8
38% 159 Montana State 31 14.4, 128 Portland State 24 17.4
38% 112 Stephen F. Austin 22 30.5, 109 California - Davis 19 34.2
38% 103 Colorado State 21 17.8, 97 San Diego State 17 21.5
38% 96 Montana 31 27.8, 94 Eastern Washington 28 31.6
38% 58 Stanford 23 20.5, 55 Washington State 17 24.1
38% 57 Pittsburgh 20 19.5, 30 Boston College 17 22.7
37% 227 Delaware State 15 15.7, 218 North Carolina A&T 6 19.1
36% 185 Southwest Missouri Sta 31 24.8, 181 Indiana State 28 29.3
36% 76 James Madison 24 19.2, 69 Maine 20 23.6
36% 38 North Carolina State 13 19.8, 35 Maryland 3 24.1
34% 123 Brigham Young 24 19.1, 80 Wyoming 13 24.3
33% 229 Davidson 14 21.4, 217 Morehead State 10 27.6
33% 98 Lafayette 14 19.4, 88 Bucknell 13 25.0
26% 207 Idaho 38 19.6, 146 Louisiana - Lafayette 25 28.8
25% 228 Sacramento State 31 19.3, 196 Weber State 12 28.8
24% 179 Nevada - Reno 35 29.8, 111 Rice 10 39.8
23% 172 Holy Cross 24 19.0, 137 Dartmouth 0 30.0
23% 27 Texas A&M 36 22.0, 8 Oklahoma State 20 33.7
21% 107 Massachusetts 38 17.8, 54 New Hampshire 21 30.9
20% 211 Northeast Louisiana 28 22.8, 124 Florida International 20 36.6
20% 189 Arkansas State 13 18.7, 108 Troy State 9 31.6
16% 174 Army 42 16.6, 110 South Florida 35 34.5
15% 101 Michigan State 51 19.4, 15 Minnesota 17 37.1
14% 31 Wisconsin 20 11.6, 2 Purdue 17 30.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.14 26 0.72 24 0.87 27 1.05 16 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 75 78.6 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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