prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 184 Howard 35 39.0, 235 Norfolk State 17 12.4
92% 181 Grambling 28 39.0, 238 Texas Southern 10 12.8
92% 138 Robert Morris 23 43.0, 232 Saint Peter's 12 8.6
92% 100 San Diego 41 50.7, 234 Butler 12 10.8
92% 84 Eastern Washington 45 43.4, 213 Sacramento State 10 11.3
92% 83 Duquesne 7 45.1, 218 Marist 3 13.2
92% 70 Fresno State 42 43.8, 214 Southern Methodist 0 6.3
92% 68 James Madison 41 44.1, 225 Virginia Military 10 3.4
92% 62 Marshall 20 43.2, 200 Central Florida 3 12.7
92% 28 Southern Illinois 66 44.0, 158 Western Illinois 13 15.1
92% 20 Harvard 13 43.1, 183 Dartmouth 12 7.5
92% 16 Louisiana State 24 40.6, 118 Vanderbilt 7 9.5
92% 13 Bowling Green 41 61.5, 179 Eastern Michigan 20 17.1
92% 12 Georgia Southern 63 65.2, 211 South Dakota State 7 9.4
92% 1 Southern California 42 41.6, 63 Washington State 12 13.4
91% 50 Northern Illinois 38 46.6, 202 Ball State 31 20.2
91% 7 Auburn 35 37.0, 95 Mississippi 14 12.8
90% 109 South Carolina State 28 39.3, 221 Delaware State 14 15.5
90% 101 Troy State 47 32.2, 194 Idaho 7 8.7
90% 64 Western Kentucky 24 40.6, 173 Illinois State 21 15.9
90% 11 Utah 51 36.1, 108 San Diego State 28 12.3
89% 88 Fordham 36 36.2, 185 Georgetown 6 13.2
89% 54 Oregon 31 34.4, 154 Washington 6 11.8
88% 34 Boise State 69 52.2, 116 Hawaii 3 30.1
88% 21 West Virginia 35 38.5, 125 Rutgers 30 17.8
87% 96 Alabama State 24 36.5, 192 Alabama A&M 20 17.5
87% 55 Hofstra 48 39.0, 144 Richmond 17 18.4
86% 119 Bethune - Cookman 45 27.0, 217 North Carolina A&T 17 9.3
86% 102 Northern Iowa 42 34.4, 187 Southwest Missouri Sta 20 14.3
86% 25 Iowa 23 33.1, 123 Illinois 13 11.9
86% 19 Pennsylvania 20 29.6, 89 Brown 16 9.8
86% 10 Michigan 45 36.0, 57 Michigan State 37 16.6
85% 111 Wofford 38 27.2, 182 The Citadel 17 10.1
85% 5 Texas 31 36.4, 59 Colorado 7 16.4
84% 90 Texas - El Paso 38 38.9, 195 San Jose State 20 22.3
84% 53 Wake Forest 24 34.1, 120 Duke 22 17.3
84% 3 California 27 37.3, 23 Arizona State 0 20.8
83% 208 Southeast Missouri Sta 35 34.5, 230 Tennessee - Martin 7 18.0
83% 56 Oregon State 28 26.8, 152 Arizona 14 10.3
82% 226 Mississippi Valley Sta 42 33.9, 237 Prairie View 34 18.3
82% 2 Oklahoma 38 32.4, 22 Oklahoma State 35 16.9
78% 35 Villanova 48 34.7, 107 Rhode Island 9 22.1
78% 9 Virginia Tech 34 20.8, 44 Georgia Tech 20 10.6
77% 122 Florida Atlantic 38 28.3, 203 Florida A&M 8 16.3
77% 47 Ohio State 21 18.6, 78 Penn State 10 8.3
77% 36 Lehigh 21 28.0, 73 Colgate 14 16.8
77% 8 Georgia 31 29.7, 31 Florida 24 19.1
76% 171 Central Michigan 24 37.0, 205 Western Michigan 21 26.3
76% 85 Yale 21 25.6, 121 Columbia 14 15.4
74% 86 William & Mary 41 26.9, 151 Towson 16 18.3
73% 97 Bucknell 42 29.8, 153 Holy Cross 27 21.5
70% 115 Monmouth 9 22.7, 147 Central Connecticut 6 16.2
69% 220 Morehead State 7 21.5, 227 Saint Francis - Pennsy 2 15.6
69% 155 Middle Tennessee State 21 31.4, 168 Utah State 0 24.7
69% 134 Albany 35 21.4, 157 Wagner 27 15.4
69% 39 California - Los Angel 21 30.4, 48 Stanford 0 23.4
68% 99 Cincinnati 21 35.8, 110 Texas Christian 10 29.2
67% 219 Liberty 34 25.9, 224 Charleston Southern 6 19.1
65% 129 Houston 24 37.1, 145 Tulane 3 31.9
64% 222 Iona 42 39.6, 228 La Salle 35 35.4
64% 178 Youngstown State 45 25.7, 189 Indiana State 20 20.9
62% 170 North Texas 45 28.1, 172 Northeast Louisiana 30 24.4
59% 190 Samford 20 34.2, 180 Tennessee Tech 17 32.5
59% 139 Mississippi State 22 22.3, 126 Kentucky 7 20.5
59% 105 Wyoming 43 26.6, 98 Air Force 26 24.9
59% 80 Massachusetts 35 21.1, 72 Maine 34 19.3
57% 131 Sacred Heart 38 28.2, 160 Stony Brook 35 26.7
56% 24 Texas Tech 35 39.4, 45 Kansas State 25 38.4
52% 169 Coastal Carolina 31 23.1, 188 Gardner - Webb 19 22.7
51% 191 Western Carolina 28 19.0, 207 Elon 7 18.9
49% 162 North Dakota State 30 20.7, 142 Northwestern State 17 20.8
49% 156 Tulsa 39 31.2, 127 Rice 22 31.5
48% 117 California - Davis 36 22.3, 137 California Poly 33 22.7
45% 32 Tennessee 43 17.0, 42 South Carolina 29 17.7
43% 198 Alcorn State 33 22.5, 204 Southeast Louisiana 27 23.9
41% 46 Clemson 26 21.5, 30 North Carolina State 20 23.4
40% 161 Kent State 42 22.5, 130 Ohio 16 24.6
38% 66 New Mexico 26 17.6, 67 Colorado State 17 20.9
37% 199 Texas State - San Marc 54 26.6, 193 McNeese State 27 30.9
37% 76 New Hampshire 27 31.5, 77 Northeastern 23 35.2
37% 75 Navy 34 18.5, 40 Delaware 20 22.5
36% 196 East Carolina 38 27.0, 163 Army 28 31.3
36% 92 Syracuse 42 20.8, 51 Connecticut 30 25.3
35% 164 Montana State 60 19.5, 150 Northern Arizona 14 24.5
34% 106 Iowa State 13 19.6, 52 Kansas 7 24.9
31% 209 New Mexico State 56 24.3, 167 Florida International 31 31.1
31% 132 Sam Houston State 31 20.0, 114 Stephen F. Austin 28 27.0
31% 87 Nebraska 24 21.4, 38 Missouri 3 28.1
30% 216 Eastern Illinois 34 21.4, 174 Tennessee State 24 28.4
29% 146 Portland State 35 22.5, 91 Montana 32 30.0
23% 212 Weber State 26 26.4, 186 Idaho State 14 36.8
22% 140 Cornell 21 13.4, 74 Princeton 20 23.6
22% 43 Maryland 20 10.4, 6 Florida State 17 21.8
18% 197 Murray State 19 13.7, 128 Eastern Kentucky 16 29.0
17% 201 Jackson State 42 11.7, 133 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 35 27.2
15% 148 Drake 13 16.9, 65 Dayton 6 35.2
15% 124 Indiana 30 21.6, 29 Minnesota 21 39.1
14% 103 Northwestern 13 18.7, 15 Purdue 10 37.4
9% 229 Tennessee - Chattanoog 59 26.2, 113 Appalachian State 56 54.5
9% 94 North Carolina 31 19.6, 4 Miami - Florida 28 44.7
8% 177 Baylor 35 15.9, 17 Texas A&M 34 49.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.96 23 0.72 14 0.94 28 0.96 21 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 70 77.5 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net