prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 154 Coastal Carolina 52 52.1, 239 Savannah State 14 10.2
92% 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 50.8, 236 Prairie View 23 13.1
92% 39 Lehigh 49 39.1, 188 Georgetown 18 9.4
92% 28 Harvard 38 37.4, 133 Columbia 0 8.2
92% 25 West Virginia 42 46.9, 157 Temple 21 15.8
92% 21 Texas Tech 42 54.3, 147 Baylor 17 22.3
92% 12 Bowling Green 52 60.7, 190 Western Michigan 0 16.4
92% 7 Florida State 29 43.5, 119 Duke 7 6.9
92% 6 Georgia 62 44.7, 150 Kentucky 17 8.0
92% 3 California 28 42.6, 57 Oregon 27 10.8
92% 1 Southern California 28 40.6, 51 Oregon State 20 13.7
91% 143 Eastern Kentucky 41 39.4, 234 Tennessee - Martin 14 12.0
91% 29 Alabama 30 33.9, 124 Mississippi State 14 7.7
91% 23 Southern Illinois 41 42.7, 160 Illinois State 14 17.4
90% 106 Duquesne 56 46.9, 228 La Salle 35 20.8
90% 89 Jacksonville State 51 47.2, 194 Samford 18 22.8
89% 122 Sam Houston State 52 41.9, 214 McNeese State 47 19.8
89% 10 Utah 63 40.8, 81 Colorado State 31 17.9
87% 99 Montana 34 39.9, 181 Northern Arizona 22 19.0
86% 167 The Citadel 44 42.3, 226 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 22.3
86% 140 Appalachian State 48 36.3, 213 Elon 7 17.6
86% 110 South Carolina State 23 34.0, 193 Howard 16 15.2
86% 109 Wofford 49 37.0, 199 Gardner - Webb 17 16.7
86% 70 Western Kentucky 28 33.1, 179 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 14.3
85% 40 Boston College 21 31.2, 111 Rutgers 10 14.0
85% 9 Virginia Tech 27 37.6, 82 North Carolina 24 20.4
84% 152 Wagner 17 29.1, 224 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 12.8
84% 102 Northern Iowa 58 37.1, 203 Indiana State 6 19.8
83% 11 Louisville 56 38.0, 80 Memphis 49 22.5
83% 2 Oklahoma 42 37.3, 32 Texas A&M 35 20.5
82% 149 Nevada - Reno 42 42.0, 208 San Jose State 24 27.9
82% 128 Portland State 42 37.2, 192 Idaho State 21 21.7
82% 123 Cornell 14 21.0, 175 Dartmouth 7 7.8
82% 4 Texas 56 33.8, 19 Oklahoma State 35 18.2
81% 139 Houston 34 36.7, 196 East Carolina 24 21.6
81% 126 Kent State 33 34.9, 212 Buffalo 7 20.5
81% 31 Florida 34 34.6, 105 Vanderbilt 17 20.5
80% 22 Arizona State 34 27.0, 59 Stanford 31 13.4
79% 100 Air Force 31 38.5, 173 Army 22 25.4
79% 87 Eastern Washington 38 31.6, 127 California Poly 21 18.7
79% 55 Fresno State 52 32.3, 141 Rice 21 19.2
78% 166 Holy Cross 44 30.5, 207 Marist 13 17.9
78% 108 Alabama State 37 38.4, 186 Grambling 23 26.7
78% 20 Pennsylvania 16 29.0, 88 Princeton 15 17.4
77% 211 Southeast Louisiana 51 35.3, 232 Jacksonville 3 24.5
77% 60 Miami - Ohio 23 38.2, 104 Toledo 16 27.5
76% 90 Hampton 24 35.2, 115 Bethune - Cookman 17 25.3
75% 227 Valparaiso 31 29.1, 233 Butler 26 19.7
75% 217 Morgan State 58 43.0, 235 Norfolk State 28 34.8
75% 183 Tennessee State 38 31.3, 209 Southeast Missouri Sta 36 21.9
73% 191 Alcorn State 31 25.5, 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 30 17.6
73% 61 New Hampshire 27 35.0, 116 Rhode Island 3 26.3
73% 17 Virginia 16 22.6, 33 Maryland 0 14.9
72% 184 Tennessee Tech 40 27.3, 205 Eastern Illinois 37 19.1
72% 137 North Dakota State 31 23.7, 197 Weber State 17 15.7
72% 97 Troy State 24 21.3, 112 Florida Atlantic 6 14.3
71% 162 Northwestern State 44 31.9, 178 Texas State - San Marc 7 24.3
71% 94 Brigham Young 49 25.1, 107 San Diego State 16 17.6
67% 117 Monmouth 28 21.5, 134 Sacred Heart 10 16.3
66% 73 Brown 24 24.6, 92 Yale 17 19.5
65% 146 Richmond 24 21.9, 164 Towson 0 17.3
64% 159 Ohio 17 25.2, 198 Central Florida 16 20.7
63% 96 Wyoming 53 25.1, 120 Nevada - Las Vegas 45 21.3
63% 64 Colgate 22 23.2, 67 Lafayette 19 19.5
62% 201 Liberty 38 22.6, 223 Virginia Military 17 19.1
62% 34 Wisconsin 38 22.1, 35 Minnesota 14 18.7
61% 156 Central Connecticut 38 28.2, 155 Stony Brook 28 25.0
60% 24 Iowa 23 19.1, 16 Purdue 21 17.3
59% 189 Northeast Louisiana 32 24.0, 182 Utah State 25 22.0
58% 148 Hawaii 34 35.6, 136 Louisiana Tech 23 34.0
58% 98 Bucknell 21 27.5, 84 Fordham 20 26.0
55% 103 San Diego 38 24.9, 95 Dayton 35 24.0
54% 176 Eastern Michigan 61 28.9, 169 Central Michigan 58 28.2
54% 142 Nicholls State 41 22.6, 129 Stephen F. Austin 23 21.8
52% 79 Syracuse 38 25.1, 58 Pittsburgh 31 24.7
51% 48 Hofstra 31 31.7, 69 Maine 20 31.6
49% 151 Robert Morris 34 23.4, 130 Albany 7 23.6
46% 101 Iowa State 34 18.9, 63 Nebraska 27 19.7
44% 77 James Madison 20 21.9, 50 Delaware 13 23.1
42% 187 Alabama A&M 22 18.6, 195 Jackson State 6 20.0
40% 172 North Texas 27 25.1, 174 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 27.6
40% 138 Illinois 26 25.0, 113 Indiana 22 27.2
39% 44 South Carolina 35 23.7, 30 Arkansas 32 26.6
39% 41 Ohio State 32 23.2, 43 Michigan State 19 26.2
38% 168 Youngstown State 34 27.5, 170 Western Illinois 9 30.7
37% 47 Kansas State 35 23.8, 45 Missouri 24 28.3
35% 85 Massachusetts 26 22.7, 76 Northeastern 22 28.0
33% 180 New Mexico State 44 24.1, 132 Middle Tennessee State 10 30.0
33% 161 Arizona 23 14.1, 153 Washington 13 18.7
33% 91 Cincinnati 52 17.5, 78 Southern Mississippi 24 22.8
32% 206 Idaho 45 25.6, 177 Arkansas State 31 32.0
32% 86 Northwestern 14 15.2, 68 Penn State 7 20.9
31% 46 Georgia Tech 24 16.1, 37 North Carolina State 14 22.3
30% 230 Saint Peter's 23 22.1, 222 Iona 14 29.4
29% 237 Austin Peay 20 20.4, 231 Davidson 17 27.9
29% 38 Notre Dame 17 18.7, 26 Tennessee 13 26.1
27% 204 Northern Colorado 42 19.7, 145 Southern Utah 7 27.8
26% 83 Colorado 30 18.2, 49 Kansas 21 26.9
25% 71 William & Mary 37 22.9, 27 Villanova 29 31.8
24% 52 Furman 29 23.8, 15 Georgia Southern 22 33.4
21% 72 Washington State 31 23.4, 36 California - Los Angel 29 36.2
20% 165 Akron 31 18.7, 75 Marshall 28 32.2
18% 158 Tulane 42 19.3, 56 Navy 10 34.3
17% 42 Clemson 24 16.5, 8 Miami - Florida 17 33.3
15% 221 Southern Methodist 41 16.4, 131 Tulsa 35 34.6
14% 220 Sacramento State 38 14.2, 125 Montana State 28 34.4
12% 163 South Florida 45 20.8, 62 Alabama - Birmingham 20 42.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.15 21 0.67 28 0.96 30 0.95 14 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 76 80.4 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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