prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 38 North Carolina State 52 48.2, 212 East Carolina 14 12.0
92% 32 Tennessee 37 40.0, 145 Kentucky 31 12.3
92% 28 Fresno State 62 51.9, 192 San Jose State 28 19.5
92% 20 Boise State 58 59.4, 189 Nevada - Reno 21 23.1
91% 2 Southern California 41 38.3, 41 Notre Dame 10 12.9
89% 10 Louisville 70 43.7, 78 Cincinnati 7 21.5
86% 9 Georgia 19 26.7, 42 Georgia Tech 13 9.5
80% 7 Texas 26 33.8, 25 Texas A&M 13 19.8
78% 108 Kent State 41 32.3, 183 Central Florida 24 20.3
78% 74 Montana 56 37.0, 113 Northwestern State 7 25.4
76% 58 Maryland 13 27.4, 96 Wake Forest 7 17.3
76% 45 Furman 49 33.6, 83 Jacksonville State 7 23.1
75% 98 Mississippi 20 26.5, 117 Mississippi State 3 17.1
74% 53 William & Mary 42 38.1, 87 Hampton 35 28.7
73% 8 Virginia Tech 24 27.1, 13 Virginia 10 18.6
72% 79 Connecticut 41 30.7, 122 Rutgers 35 22.8
70% 179 Florida International 40 37.2, 207 Florida A&M 23 29.7
67% 85 Memphis 31 37.3, 129 South Florida 15 32.2
63% 47 Delaware 28 26.9, 48 Lafayette 14 22.7
63% 24 Texas Tech 31 38.5, 26 Oklahoma State 15 34.7
62% 18 Louisiana State 43 27.2, 27 Arkansas 14 23.8
52% 49 Colorado 26 24.0, 73 Nebraska 20 23.6
49% 110 Southern Mississippi 26 22.9, 97 Alabama - Birmingham 21 23.1
47% 141 Louisiana Tech 51 29.3, 157 Rice 14 29.8
38% 62 Pittsburgh 16 25.8, 34 West Virginia 13 29.4
36% 76 Missouri 17 16.9, 71 Iowa State 14 21.3
28% 121 Tulane 35 33.1, 107 Texas Christian 31 40.4
28% 72 James Madison 14 17.0, 46 Lehigh 13 24.6
26% 37 New Hampshire 27 34.7, 22 Georgia Southern 23 42.9
24% 153 Hawaii 49 26.2, 86 Northwestern 41 36.3
22% 196 Grambling 24 22.2, 140 Southern 13 33.5
21% 167 Tulsa 37 25.7, 77 Texas - El Paso 35 38.0
20% 148 Sam Houston State 54 19.2, 55 Western Kentucky 24 33.3
16% 88 Toledo 49 25.6, 11 Bowling Green 41 42.0
15% 103 Syracuse 43 14.9, 30 Boston College 17 31.8
11% 90 Eastern Washington 35 19.2, 16 Southern Illinois 31 41.3
8% 139 Arizona 34 10.4, 21 Arizona State 27 37.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.64 6 1.05 16 0.75 6 0.59 6 0.91 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 37 22 28.0 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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