prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 4 California 26 42.9, 106 Southern Mississippi 16 10.7
92% 3 Louisville 55 58.1, 121 Tulane 7 22.2
92% 1 Oklahoma 42 39.9, 47 Colorado 3 12.7
89% 73 Navy 42 38.5, 185 Army 13 15.6
86% 2 Southern California 29 38.3, 42 California - Los Angel 24 20.3
82% 5 Auburn 38 29.9, 33 Tennessee 28 15.2
81% 100 Alabama State 21 33.6, 158 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 19.0
79% 50 Pittsburgh 43 32.8, 133 South Florida 14 20.3
67% 128 Florida Atlantic 17 27.6, 170 Florida International 10 22.3
54% 49 William & Mary 44 28.0, 41 Delaware 38 27.2
52% 64 Toledo 35 30.0, 68 Miami - Ohio 27 29.5
39% 46 Montana 47 31.7, 26 New Hampshire 17 34.2
36% 8 Virginia Tech 16 19.2, 7 Miami - Florida 10 23.8
30% 53 James Madison 14 18.3, 35 Furman 13 25.5
24% 107 Sam Houston State 35 31.2, 77 Eastern Washington 34 40.7
22% 135 Hawaii 41 31.9, 58 Michigan State 38 43.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.88 3 0.52 4 0.33 4 1.18 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 12.2 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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