2004 Week 15 (10-11 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 83%  37 Montana                 34 41.9,   107 Sam Houston State       13 26.2
 79% 104 Alabama State           40 32.5,   160 Southern                35 20.3

 37%  56 James Madison           48 24.3,    50 William & Mary          34 28.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                0 0.00   1 0.00   1 1.27   1 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):   3   2   2.2 0.89

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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