17 Jan 2006: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4   8 17.4  7.4 Texas                    121 36   0 13.4  3.8 Holy Cross              
  2  8   8 17.8  7.0 Southern California      122 24   0 12.5  4.5 Villanova               
  3  5   7 15.1  7.7 Ohio State               123 14   0 11.3  5.3 Montana                 
  4  5   6 14.7  7.7 Virginia Tech            124 40   0 12.0  4.8 Duke                    
  5 34   6 14.3  7.6 Louisiana State          125 47   0 12.9  4.2 East Carolina           
  6  5   6 15.1  7.0 Georgia                  126 36   0 12.0  4.8 Southern Methodist      
  7 15   6 17.6  5.2 Louisville               127 52   0 13.7  3.3 Western Michigan        
  8  6   5 14.8  7.0 Penn State               128 14   0 11.1  5.3 Middle Tennessee State  
  9  6   5 15.1  6.8 Auburn                   129 37   0 13.4  3.5 Eastern Washington      
 10  6   5 16.3  5.8 Texas Tech               130 26   0 12.6  4.1 Portland State          
 11 24   5 14.9  6.7 Iowa                     131 55   0 10.5  5.6 Youngstown State        
 12 49   5 16.0  5.8 Notre Dame               132 64   0 12.1  4.4 South Carolina State    
 13 14   5 15.2  6.4 Florida                  133 23   0 12.4  4.1 Rhode Island            
 14 10   5 14.8  6.6 Oklahoma                 134 50   0 12.3  4.1 Nicholls State          
 15 31   5 14.9  6.6 West Virginia            135 29   0 12.0  4.3 Tulane                  
 16 13   5 14.1  7.1 Boston College           136 15   0 10.7  5.2 California - Davis      
 17  8   5 14.9  6.5 Michigan                 137 44   0 12.5  3.9 Northeastern            
 18 39   5 13.3  7.5 Alabama                  138 43   0 12.0  4.2 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 19  9   5 15.5  6.0 Oregon                   139 44   0 12.6  3.7 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 20 11   5 13.7  7.2 Miami - Florida          140 32   0 10.6  5.2 Troy State              
 21 49   5 16.4  5.1 Arizona State            141 27   0 12.2  3.9 Western Kentucky        
 22 17   4 15.0  6.1 Wisconsin                142 27   0 11.9  4.1 Montana State           
 23 10   4 14.8  6.2 Texas Christian          143 52   0 11.2  4.6 Northwestern State      
 24 10   4 15.1  5.9 Florida State            144 42   0 12.5  3.6 Rice                    
 25 10   4 14.2  6.5 California               145 45   0 11.3  4.5 Ohio                    
 26  9   4 14.1  6.5 Clemson                  146 27   0 10.0  5.5 Dartmouth               
 27 30   4 16.1  5.0 Minnesota                147 43   0 13.2  3.1 San Diego               
 28 12   4 14.8  5.9 Virginia                 148 35   0 10.6  5.0 Hampton                 
 29 13   4 15.2  5.5 Utah                     149 14   0 11.9  3.9 Arkansas State          
 30 16   4 13.5  6.8 North Carolina State     150 35   0 11.9  3.9 Eastern Michigan        
 31 10   4 15.9  4.9 Texas A&M                151 89   0 10.9  4.6 Duquesne                
 32 33   4 14.7  5.8 Purdue                   152 35   0 12.3  3.5 San Jose State          
 33 55   4 16.7  4.3 California - Los Angeles 153 33   0 11.4  4.2 Utah State              
 34 13   4 13.2  6.8 Tennessee                154 38   0 12.4  3.4 Ball State              
 35 10   4 14.2  6.1 Iowa State               155 65   0 11.9  3.7 South Dakota State      
 36 20   4 14.0  6.1 Nebraska                 156 38   0 12.5  3.3 Florida International   
 37 32   4 15.0  5.4 Michigan State           157 47   0 11.7  3.8 Coastal Carolina        
 38 33   4 14.1  6.0 Pittsburgh               158 30  -1 12.0  3.5 Northeast Louisiana     
 39 11   3 15.2  5.1 Boise State              159 31  -1 11.1  4.2 Wofford                 
 40 24   3 14.1  5.9 James Madison            160 26  -1 12.3  3.3 Towson                  
 41 11   3 14.6  5.5 Fresno State             161 50  -1 10.3  4.8 Western Carolina        
 42 11   3 14.6  5.5 Arkansas                 162 42  -1 11.2  4.0 Eastern Kentucky        
 43 63   3 13.2  6.4 Colorado                 163 24  -1 10.3  4.7 Columbia                
 44 11   3 13.8  6.0 South Carolina           164 82  -1 10.2  4.8 Dayton                  
 45 28   3 13.7  6.0 Maryland                 165 29  -1 11.0  4.1 Bucknell                
 46 12   3 15.1  4.9 Missouri                 166 16  -1 10.7  4.2 Jacksonville State      
 47 20   3 15.6  4.5 New Hampshire            167 14  -1 12.4  2.9 Stephen F. Austin       
 48 35   3 13.1  6.3 Kansas                   168 36  -1 10.7  4.2 Kent State              
 49 80   3 12.7  6.6 Georgia Tech             169 20  -1 10.2  4.5 Eastern Illinois        
 50 31   3 14.0  5.5 Hofstra                  170 38  -1 11.5  3.6 Central Connecticut     
 51 22   3 12.8  6.4 South Florida            171 28  -1 12.1  3.1 Idaho                   
 52 41   3 14.1  5.4 Harvard                  172 36  -1 10.6  4.2 North Texas             
 53 20   3 12.2  6.7 Massachusetts            173 36  -1 10.1  4.6 Florida Atlantic        
 54 18   3 14.6  4.9 Brigham Young            174 41  -1 11.0  3.8 New Mexico State        
 55 23   3 14.8  4.8 Vanderbilt               175 15  -1 12.0  3.0 Southwest Missouri State
 56 31   3 15.0  4.6 Northwestern             176 31  -1 10.5  4.1 Fordham                 
 57 29   3 14.8  4.7 Washington State         177 54  -1 11.7  3.1 Alabama State           
 58 37   2 13.1  6.0 Arizona                  178 85  -1 11.6  3.2 Grambling               
 59 12   2 13.2  5.8 Stanford                 179 33  -1  9.9  4.5 Monmouth                
 60 42   2 14.7  4.7 Navy                     180 20  -1 10.3  4.2 The Citadel             
 61 33   2 14.2  5.0 Rutgers                  181 26  -1  8.9  5.2 Albany                  
 62 13   2 13.0  5.9 Connecticut              182 71  -1 11.5  3.2 Southeast Louisiana     
 63 39   2 13.3  5.6 San Diego State          183 14  -1 11.5  3.2 Sam Houston State       
 64 45   2 14.1  4.9 Miami - Ohio             184 22  -1 12.2  2.7 Idaho State             
 65 47   2 14.1  5.0 Oregon State             185 33  -1 10.1  4.3 Temple                  
 66 30   2 14.2  4.8 Toledo                   186 34  -1 11.6  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
 67 46   2 12.5  6.0 Princeton                187 39  -1 11.8  3.0 McNeese State           
 68 14   2 13.6  5.2 Southern Mississippi     188 29  -2 12.0  2.7 Western Illinois        
 69 14   2 13.3  5.4 Tulsa                    189 17  -2 10.8  3.4 Weber State             
 70 14   2 13.5  5.2 Northern Illinois        190 45  -2  9.8  4.1 Delaware State          
 71 32   2 13.9  4.9 Wake Forest              191 62  -2 11.0  3.2 Marist                  
 72 46   2 14.4  4.6 Brown                    192 41  -2 10.6  3.5 Stony Brook             
 73 46   2 13.5  5.3 North Carolina           193 14  -2 10.4  3.6 Northern Colorado       
 74 18   2 14.4  4.5 Air Force                194 47  -2 11.5  2.7 Drake                   
 75 29   2 12.3  6.1 Baylor                   195 19  -2 11.6  2.5 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 76 24   2 13.7  5.0 New Mexico               196 16  -2 10.6  3.3 Northern Arizona        
 77 17   2 13.8  4.9 Colorado State           197 19  -2  8.5  4.9 Georgetown              
 78 51   2 14.1  4.7 Kansas State             198 70  -2  9.6  4.0 Alabama A&M             
 79 53   2 12.3  6.1 Washington               199 19  -2 10.5  3.3 Virginia Military       
 80 17   2 13.6  5.0 Wyoming                  200 25  -2  8.8  4.6 Buffalo                 
 81 51   2 13.9  4.8 Bowling Green            201 47  -2 10.9  2.8 Robert Morris           
 82 42   2 12.9  5.5 Pennsylvania             202 21  -2 10.7  3.0 Sacred Heart            
 83 49   2 13.1  5.2 Cornell                  203 26  -2 11.9  2.0 Gardner - Webb          
 84 30   2 13.6  4.9 Indiana                  204 29  -3 10.3  3.2 Wagner                  
 85 37   1 12.0  5.9 Richmond                 205 75  -3 10.8  2.8 Southern                
 86 33   1 12.8  5.3 Delaware                 206 16  -3 10.1  3.3 Florida A&M             
 87 52   1 13.7  4.6 Lehigh                   207 24  -3  9.8  3.5 Sacramento State        
 88 45   1 14.4  4.1 Georgia Southern         208 17  -2  8.5  4.5 Elon                    
 89 18   1 13.3  4.8 Memphis                  209 25  -3 11.0  2.2 Southeast Missouri State
 90 20   1 11.7  5.9 Mississippi              210 24  -3  8.5  4.2 Howard                  
 91 16   1 12.6  5.2 Oklahoma State           211 36  -3  9.3  3.4 North Carolina A&T      
 92 14   1 13.3  4.7 Louisiana Tech           212 12  -3 10.2  2.7 Charleston Southern     
 93 14   1 13.4  4.6 Alabama - Birmingham     213 48  -3  9.4  3.3 Morehead State          
 94 43   1 12.0  5.6 Yale                     214 13  -3 10.4  2.5 Indiana State           
 95 51   1 14.1  4.0 Hawaii                   215 12  -3 10.8  2.1 Samford                 
 96 17   1 13.8  4.3 William & Mary           216 38  -3 11.1  1.9 Norfolk State           
 97 52   1 13.6  4.4 Illinois State           217 36  -3  9.2  3.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 98 14   1 13.1  4.8 Houston                  218 22  -4 10.9  2.0 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 99 24   1 13.3  4.5 Texas - El Paso          219 36  -4 10.5  2.2 Mississippi Valley State
100 42   1 12.2  5.3 Lafayette                220 17  -4  9.2  3.2 Southern Utah           
101 23   1 13.3  4.6 Kentucky                 221 73  -4 10.2  2.4 Tennessee - Martin      
102 37   1 12.5  5.1 Colgate                  222 43  -4  9.6  2.8 Alcorn State            
103 29   1 14.2  3.8 Nevada - Reno            223 13  -4 11.1  1.5 Morgan State            
104 25   1 12.5  5.0 Army                     224 10  -4 10.4  2.0 Tennessee Tech          
105 66   1 12.4  5.0 Cincinnati               225 10  -4  7.8  3.8 Tennessee State         
106 58   1 12.5  5.0 Illinois                 226 10  -4  9.7  2.2 Murray State            
107 14   1 12.6  4.9 Central Michigan         227 24  -4  8.0  3.4 Davidson                
108 23   1 13.0  4.5 Northern Iowa            228 15  -5 10.6  1.2 La Salle                
109 13   1 13.6  4.1 Central Florida          229 30  -5  8.8  2.6 Iona                    
110 36   1 12.5  4.8 Appalachian State        230 32  -5  8.3  3.0 Liberty                 
111 34   1 12.7  4.7 Akron                    231 40  -5  9.8  1.8 Jacksonville            
112 31   1 14.1  3.7 Furman                   232 20  -5  9.3  2.2 Jackson State           
113 18   1 11.3  5.7 Syracuse                 233 17  -5  9.2  1.9 Saint Peter's           
114 32   0 11.1  5.9 Mississippi State        234 24  -5  8.8  2.2 Texas Southern          
115 58   0 12.6  4.7 Maine                    235 34  -5  7.9  2.8 Prairie View            
116 58   0 12.6  4.6 Texas State - San Marcos 236  6  -6  9.2  1.5 Savannah State          
117 22   0 12.4  4.7 California Poly          237  6  -7  8.5  1.3 Valparaiso              
118 42   0 12.2  4.8 Marshall                 238  6  -8  7.2  1.3 Butler                  
119 25   0 12.3  4.8 Southern Illinois        239  5  -9  7.1  0.8 Austin Peay             
120 45   0 11.2  5.5 North Dakota State      

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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