2005 Week 2 (8-10 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%  28 Connecticut             59 43.7,   190 Liberty                  0  4.3
 86%  12 Texas Tech              56 49.1,   139 Florida International    3 16.8
 86%   8 Florida State           62 44.9,   187 The Citadel             10  1.4
 85%  39 Fresno State            55 44.8,   199 Weber State             17  5.7
 83%  20 Utah                    31 44.8,   147 Utah State               7 15.6
 83%  14 Purdue                  49 43.9,   126 Akron                   24 13.1
 82% 107 South Florida           37 43.2,   224 Florida A&M              3 12.0
 82%  23 Wisconsin               65 48.9,   158 Temple                   0 18.4
 82%  15 Florida                 41 39.9,   115 Louisiana Tech           3 11.6
 82%  13 West Virginia           35 38.4,   137 Wofford                  7  4.8
 82%   1 Georgia                 17 39.2,    75 South Carolina          15  5.2
 81%  57 Wyoming                 38 39.9,   179 Northeast Louisiana      0 11.7
 81%   6 Boston College          44 35.7,   140 Army                     7  1.9
 80% 116 Baylor                  48 41.4,   200 Samford                 14 19.3
 80%  53 Bowling Green           40 49.0,   205 Ball State              31 23.1
 80%   4 Virginia Tech           45 38.6,   128 Duke                     0  7.9
 79% 183 Arkansas State          56 38.2,   235 Tennessee - Martin       7 13.8
 79%  48 Arizona                 31 35.6,   164 Northern Arizona        12  7.9
 79%  30 California - Los Angel  63 40.3,   114 Rice                    21 18.7
 78% 142 Illinois State          56 44.4,   215 Drake                   19 24.5
 77%  71 Kentucky                41 37.2,   153 Idaho State             29 16.9
 77%  47 Toledo                  56 40.0,   113 Western Michigan        23 22.2
 77%  40 Colorado                39 36.3,   133 New Mexico State         0 15.7
 76%  85 Nevada - Las Vegas      34 41.8,   151 Idaho                   31 25.8
 75% 166 Bethune - Cookman       31 29.9,   223 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   17 11.2
 75% 122 Syracuse                31 25.0,   211 Buffalo                  0  2.3
 75%  72 Kansas                  36 39.9,   127 Appalachian State        8 23.0
 75%  21 Michigan State          42 40.7,    63 Hawaii                  14 25.1
 73%  99 Indiana                 35 28.9,   170 Nicholls State          31 11.7
 73%  24 Oregon State            30 40.0,    58 Boise State             27 26.3
 73%   9 Georgia Tech            27 31.5,    50 North Carolina          21 15.6
 72% 185 Alabama State           27 25.9,   238 Texas Southern          15  7.7
 72%  26 Auburn                  28 27.2,    86 Mississippi State        0  9.9
 71% 120 Western Kentucky        23 23.6,   177 Eastern Kentucky        21  7.2
 71%  88 Hofstra                 36 33.6,   188 Albany                   7 17.9
 71%  56 Penn State              42 26.3,   109 Cincinnati              24 11.1
 71%  46 Nebraska                31 28.3,   100 Wake Forest              3 12.8
 70% 213 North Carolina A&T      16 30.3,   232 Norfolk State           14 15.4
 70%  49 Oregon                  47 35.0,    80 Montana                 14 23.2
 70%  41 Air Force               41 29.7,    89 San Diego State         29 15.9
 69% 201 Wagner                  14 30.3,   234 Iona                     0 17.5
 69% 123 Lafayette                7 25.9,   172 Richmond                 0 11.9
 69% 118 Brigham Young           45 22.9,   193 Eastern Illinois        10  5.0
 68% 155 Kent State              33 35.5,   186 Southeast Missouri Sta  12 23.8
 68%  36 Oklahoma                31 20.8,   101 Tulsa                   15  3.7
 67% 208 Elon                    48 22.9,   236 Savannah State          14 10.7
 67% 149 California Poly         37 24.6,   189 Sacramento State        13 13.3
 67% 148 Eastern Michigan        31 34.3,   175 Louisiana - Lafayette   10 23.8
 67% 108 Houston                 31 33.8,   138 Sam Houston State       10 24.4
 67%  87 Illinois                40 34.8,   117 San Jose State          19 24.9
 67%  38 Minnesota               56 29.7,    74 Colorado State          24 18.0
 67%  27 California              56 23.2,    94 Washington              17 10.4
 66% 184 Monmouth                65 43.9,   226 La Salle                27 35.2
 65% 218 South Dakota State      69 29.1,   227 Valparaiso               6 18.8
 65%  43 Alabama                 30 20.5,    76 Southern Mississippi    21  9.4
 64%  51 Northwestern            38 32.0,    68 Northern Illinois       37 24.0
 63% 206 Texas State - San Marc  34 25.2,   219 Southern Utah            0 16.6
 63% 106 Montana State           42 23.2,   141 Stephen F. Austin        6 14.4
 63% 104 Holy Cross              48 28.3,   130 Georgetown               6 20.9
 63%  96 William & Mary          41 25.6,   167 Virginia Military        7 17.1
 63%   2 Texas                   25 26.2,    16 Ohio State              22 18.8
 61% 228 Saint Peter's           25 24.3,   229 Saint Francis - Pennsy  22 18.2
 61% 195 Marist                  22 30.2,   220 Sacred Heart            20 25.2
 61%  65 Oklahoma State          23 21.5,    97 Florida Atlantic         3 14.8
 61%  59 Delaware                34 33.8,    67 Lehigh                  33 28.9
 60% 154 Hampton                 22 20.4,   202 Howard                  12 15.0
 60%  90 Washington State        55 33.8,   131 Nevada - Reno           21 30.4
 56% 152 Duquesne                30 24.9,   143 Fordham                 13 22.9
 54% 180 Stony Brook             21 24.1,   165 Bucknell                18 22.8
 53% 207 Southeast Louisiana     48 23.0,   203 Alcorn State            21 21.7
 50% 124 Portland State          14 20.3,   150 California - Davis      12 20.3
 50%  45 Stanford                41 22.6,    62 Navy                    38 22.6

 48%  22 Clemson                 28 21.7,    35 Maryland                24 22.5
 47% 217 Tennessee State         20 15.7,   216 Jackson State           14 16.8
 44% 210 Mississippi Valley Sta  31 22.6,   182 Southern                28 24.8
 44%  98 Rhode Island            56 25.5,   112 Central Connecticut     10 27.5
 44%  73 Alabama - Birmingham    27 16.7,    79 Troy State               7 18.9
 41% 209 Grambling               44 18.4,   176 Alabama A&M              0 21.9
 41% 110 Rutgers                 38 28.2,    69 Villanova                6 30.9
 39% 221 Western Illinois        28 22.4,   191 Northern Colorado       23 27.7
 39% 134 North Texas             14 22.5,   125 Middle Tennessee State   7 27.5
 38%  25 Notre Dame              17 18.7,    19 Michigan                10 25.4
 37%  78 Kansas State            21 23.8,    64 Marshall                19 30.6
 37%  60 New Mexico              45 15.2,    44 Missouri                35 23.4
 33% 161 Coastal Carolina        31 14.1,    77 James Madison           27 26.2
 33% 145 Ohio                    16 18.6,    66 Pittsburgh              10 29.3
 33%  10 Louisiana State         35 23.3,     5 Arizona State           31 33.7
 32% 173 Youngstown State        35 21.5,    93 Northeastern            16 33.2
 32% 171 North Dakota State      35 14.6,   129 Northwestern State       7 27.4
 32% 160 Colgate                 17 12.9,    61 Massachusetts           14 27.2
 31%  55 Vanderbilt              28 22.2,    31 Arkansas                24 33.7
 28% 178 Western Carolina        41 15.7,    84 Furman                  21 31.5
 27% 194 Tennessee - Chattanoog  21 32.7,   146 Jacksonville State      18 44.7
 25% 162 Central Michigan        38 13.8,    83 Miami - Ohio            37 32.2
 23%  91 Iowa State              23  8.1,     3 Iowa                     3 30.9
 19% 174 Southern Methodist      21 10.7,    17 Texas Christian         10 43.8
 14% 192 McNeese State           23 17.1,    42 Georgia Southern        20 51.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 0.84  38 1.05  29 1.16  17 1.07   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  97  72  67.5 1.07

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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