2005 Week 5 (27 Sep - 1 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 172 Grambling               56 40.4,   238 Prairie View             7  3.3
 92%  13 Boston College          38 49.9,   207 Ball State               0  0.7
 90% 139 Western Michigan        31 24.4,   210 Buffalo                 21  3.6
 88% 126 Dayton                  49 30.0,   208 Jacksonville            17  4.3
 88%  95 Northern Iowa           41 53.1,   218 Western Illinois        24 27.4
 88%  50 Louisville              61 41.7,   152 Florida Atlantic        10 16.3
 88%  37 Wyoming                 42 40.9,   137 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 17.0
 88%  22 Texas A&M               16 44.5,   121 Baylor                  13 17.7
 87% 151 Hampton                 26 28.0,   211 Delaware State           8  6.0
 86%  12 California - Los Angel  21 38.0,    75 Washington              17 16.7
 86%   1 Virginia Tech           34 28.3,    46 West Virginia           17  7.4
 85% 130 Maine                   31 31.8,   193 Albany                   7 12.1
 85% 125 Furman                  48 54.4,   221 Gardner - Webb          31 24.2
 85% 102 Georgia Southern        49 29.5,   203 Elon                     7  9.2
 85%  14 Wisconsin               41 35.7,    69 Indiana                 24 16.1
 85%   7 Florida State           38 35.4,    92 Syracuse                14  8.0
 84% 111 Western Kentucky        38 33.9,   200 Indiana State           28 15.0
 83%   5 Texas Tech              30 45.2,    61 Kansas                  17 24.1
 82% 223 Morehead State          58 32.0,   236 Butler                  10 14.9
 82% 110 Marshall                16 27.9,   168 Southern Methodist      13 11.1
 82% 104 Tulane                  28 39.6,   201 Southeast Louisiana     21 15.4
 82%  76 Alabama - Birmingham    45 34.0,   140 Rice                    26 17.3
 81% 163 Drake                   58 36.9,   234 Davidson                17  8.4
 81%  42 Connecticut             47 32.3,   145 Army                    13 15.7
 80% 116 Montana State           30 39.7,   169 Idaho State             28 24.5
 80%  90 California Poly         31 34.6,   197 Northern Colorado       14 11.5
 79% 157 Central Connecticut     56 36.5,   222 Saint Peter's           20 13.9
 79%  20 Tennessee               27 23.0,    57 Mississippi             10  9.1
 78% 220 La Salle                39 24.0,   232 Iona                    32 12.3
 78% 149 Montana                 24 28.8,   195 Weber State             19 14.7
 78%  73 Pennsylvania            26 34.0,   156 Dartmouth                9 20.8
 78%   4 Miami - Florida         27 24.3,    28 South Florida            7  9.3
 77% 132 Bowling Green           70 38.5,   167 Temple                   7 25.2
 77%  98 Texas State - San Marc  42 29.4,   171 South Dakota State      12 11.0
 77%  43 California              28 27.0,    81 Arizona                  0 15.5
 77%  15 Louisiana State         37 31.1,    86 Mississippi State        7 17.2
 76%  33 Iowa                    35 27.3,    74 Illinois                 7 13.9
 76%  16 Auburn                  48 27.2,    40 South Carolina           7 15.4
 75% 182 Monmouth                36 24.7,   227 Stony Brook              7 14.1
 75%  48 Southern Mississippi    33 40.0,   129 East Carolina            7 28.3
 74% 178 Virginia Military       10 25.5,   235 Liberty                  7  6.6
 73% 154 Southern Illinois       30 39.5,   184 Southwest Missouri Sta  23 28.7
 73% 106 Lafayette               12 14.8,   175 Georgetown               7  6.9
 73%  36 Oregon                  44 33.0,   107 Stanford                20 23.0
 72%  91 Central Florida         24 29.7,   159 Louisiana - Lafayette   21 20.3
 72%  56 New Hampshire           45 29.8,    83 Villanova               17 19.6
 71%  82 Princeton               43 24.9,   117 Columbia                 3 16.2
 70%   3 Texas                   51 33.8,    26 Missouri                20 25.9
 68% 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   17 20.2,   233 Alcorn State             7 12.6
 68%  24 North Carolina          31 24.7,    31 Utah                    17 17.8
 67% 192 Wagner                  26 28.3,   199 Sacred Heart            21 21.9
 67% 135 Colgate                 34 25.0,   150 Cornell                 20 17.9
 67%  94 Miami - Ohio            44 26.6,   105 Cincinnati              16 20.3
 67%  54 Fresno State            44 38.3,    60 Toledo                  14 32.6
 66%   2 Southern California     38 32.0,    11 Arizona State           28 24.8
 65% 209 Norfolk State           58 42.0,   231 Savannah State          29 34.7
 65% 100 North Dakota State      26 23.0,   113 Nicholls State          13 18.0
 64% 206 North Carolina A&T      16 17.7,   219 Tennessee State          3 13.0
 64% 188 Florida International   23 26.7,   194 Florida A&M              6 20.4
 64% 162 Alabama State           45 22.5,   191 Southern                35 17.1
 64%  59 San Diego State         31 34.0,    68 Brigham Young           10 27.3
 64%  45 Oklahoma                43 24.8,    49 Kansas State            21 19.5
 63%  53 Nebraska                27 16.9,    51 Iowa State              20 13.2
 62% 180 Bethune - Cookman       44 44.8,   179 Morgan State            26 41.5
 62% 144 Louisiana Tech          34 21.1,   138 New Mexico State        14 17.2
 62%  85 Brown                   45 26.1,    97 Rhode Island            35 21.4
 60% 146 Eastern Michigan        27 29.6,   141 Kent State              20 26.4
 59%  72 Texas Christian         49 27.8,    63 New Mexico              28 25.6
 53% 142 Nevada - Reno           30 27.6,   165 San Jose State          23 27.0
 53%  35 Colorado                34 11.8,    65 Oklahoma State           0 11.2
 52% 196 Sacramento State        38 20.8,   186 Northern Arizona        24 20.5
 52%  47 Rutgers                 37 20.2,    25 Pittsburgh              29 19.5

 49% 136 Eastern Kentucky        31 26.3,   153 Jacksonville State      14 26.5
 46%  70 James Madison           42 34.4,    87 Hofstra                 10 35.3
 45%  38 Alabama                 31 17.8,    21 Florida                  3 18.7
 43%  67 Colorado State          41 41.3,    39 Air Force               23 42.5
 42% 229 Samford                 33 25.0,   215 Southeast Missouri Sta  17 27.1
 42% 109 Navy                    28 25.7,   118 Duke                    21 28.0
 41%  77 Oregon State            44 30.1,    52 Washington State        33 31.9
 41%  64 Maryland                45 21.8,    32 Virginia                33 24.9
 41%  27 Penn State              44 25.6,    10 Minnesota               14 27.6
 40% 205 Howard                  27 15.6,   213 Charleston Southern     22 17.7
 40% 189 Bucknell                27 24.5,   164 Marist                   7 26.7
 40% 112 Memphis                 27 27.9,    71 Texas - El Paso         20 31.4
 39% 239 Austin Peay             30 18.7,   237 Valparaiso              20 22.1
 39% 214 Texas Southern          17 16.0,   216 Alabama A&M              7 18.7
 38%  84 Holy Cross              22 26.6,    80 Yale                    19 30.7
 38%  19 Notre Dame              49 31.0,    23 Purdue                  28 34.5
 36%   9 Michigan                34 19.4,     8 Michigan State          31 25.4
 35% 115 Houston                 30 16.5,    89 Tulsa                   23 26.0
 33% 170 Eastern Washington      42 21.7,   131 Portland State          24 27.7
 33% 161 Coastal Carolina        24 13.5,   148 South Carolina State    23 19.6
 27% 230 Tennessee Tech          42 10.7,   204 Murray State            21 19.7
 27% 122 Wake Forest             31 19.6,    30 Clemson                 27 34.3
 27%  88 Lehigh                  49 32.8,    41 Harvard                 24 44.8
 26% 177 Idaho                   27 14.5,   119 Utah State              13 23.9
 25% 155 Central Michigan        31 19.8,   103 Akron                   17 34.6
 25%  58 Boise State             44 13.2,    29 Hawaii                  41 25.8
 22% 166 Northeast Louisiana     31 20.6,    62 Arkansas State          27 36.6
 21% 190 Youngstown State        20  7.7,    78 Illinois State          17 27.1
 20% 160 Towson                  35 18.5,    55 Delaware                31 36.1
 19% 187 The Citadel             17  6.2,   128 Western Carolina         7 23.6
 16% 228 Saint Francis - Pennsy  35 14.4,   185 Robert Morris           28 32.1
 12% 224 Tennessee - Chattanoog  25 16.9,   123 Wofford                 13 42.0
 10% 181 Middle Tennessee State  17  5.0,    44 Vanderbilt              15 38.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               15 0.60  30 1.04  32 0.95  25 1.04   3 0.73   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105  72  75.9 0.95

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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