2005 Week 8 (20-22 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 144 Dayton                  52 45.3,   237 Valparaiso               7  6.5
 92%  21 Clemson                 37 46.5,   197 Temple                   7  2.4
 91%  79 Toledo                  38 26.6,   205 Buffalo                 15  1.2
 87%  33 Fresno State            40 47.7,   193 Idaho                   10 17.6
 86% 116 Furman                  45 35.5,   209 Elon                     6 11.0
 86%  30 Pittsburgh              34 30.7,   108 Syracuse                17 10.4
 86%  10 Penn State              63 34.2,   100 Illinois                10 14.9
 85% 120 San Diego               31 39.7,   192 Drake                   26 19.8
 85%  65 William & Mary          44 40.6,   166 Towson                  13 18.5
 85%   2 Southern California     51 36.9,    86 Washington              24 12.8
 84% 125 Portland State          45 35.6,   199 Northern Arizona         0 16.4
 84%  17 Florida State           55 31.9,   118 Duke                    24 12.4
 84%  13 Wisconsin               31 39.2,    69 Purdue                  20 20.4
 83%  87 Tulsa                   20 27.6,   133 Southern Methodist      13 12.0
 83%  40 New Hampshire           52 49.2,   139 Northeastern            21 26.6
 83%  37 Massachusetts           35 23.9,   156 Maine                   14  6.8
 83%  12 Oklahoma                37 28.1,    75 Baylor                  30  5.5
 82% 229 Jacksonville            33 36.5,   239 Austin Peay             26 19.0
 82% 109 Georgia Southern        49 31.2,   177 The Citadel             14 12.9
 82%  31 Colorado                44 21.9,    78 Kansas                  13  7.3
 82%   9 Georgia                 23 33.9,    54 Arkansas                20 16.0
 82%   5 Ohio State              41 34.2,    81 Indiana                 10 16.9
 81%  80 Lehigh                  42 34.0,   178 Bucknell                10 17.1
 81%  47 Miami - Ohio            24 35.3,   155 Eastern Michigan        23 19.0
 81%   3 Virginia Tech           28 27.5,    49 Maryland                 9 11.2
 80% 132 Coastal Carolina        27 31.9,   230 Liberty                 21 12.2
 80% 105 Louisiana Tech          40 26.5,   160 North Texas             14 12.7
 80% 103 Western Kentucky        42 45.7,   202 Western Illinois         7 29.3
 80%  14 Notre Dame              49 32.7,    59 Brigham Young           23 16.1
 79% 213 Morehead State          31 17.3,   233 Davidson                13  5.1
 79% 174 Eastern Kentucky        33 34.7,   219 Southeast Missouri Sta  32 18.6
 79%  24 Oregon                  28 33.1,   107 Arizona                 21 18.5
 78% 135 Eastern Illinois        35 33.6,   218 Murray State            28 19.5
 78%  97 Texas State - San Marc  31 24.2,   151 Northwestern State      16 11.2
 78%  68 Iowa State              37 25.2,   119 Oklahoma State          10 11.1
 78%  55 Utah                    42 30.8,   138 Nevada - Las Vegas      32 18.1
 78%   8 Louisville              46 48.4,    88 Cincinnati              22 31.2
 77% 123 Arkansas State           3 31.4,   167 Florida Atlantic         0 18.6
 77%  58 Boise State             45 34.0,   159 Utah State              21 19.5
 76% 168 Jacksonville State      33 26.3,   220 Tennessee State          3 15.7
 76% 158 Troy State              18 24.0,   187 Florida International   13 13.9
 76%  73 Mississippi             13 27.3,   114 Kentucky                 7 16.6
 75%  18 California - Los Angel  51 40.8,    34 Oregon State            28 31.6
 75%   1 Texas                   52 43.2,     4 Texas Tech              17 33.6
 73% 126 Dartmouth               17 20.9,   164 Columbia                 6 11.9
 73%  90 Memphis                 27 30.4,   124 East Carolina           24 20.6
 73%  77 Navy                    41 40.5,   154 Rice                     9 30.7
 72%  44 California              42 30.1,    63 Washington State        38 21.6
 72%  16 Alabama                  6 20.3,    29 Tennessee                3 13.4
 70%  57 Pennsylvania            38 22.6,    89 Yale                    21 14.5
 69% 143 Ohio                    38 27.2,   171 Ball State              21 18.5
 69% 140 Southern Illinois       42 24.2,   201 Indiana State           20 17.3
 68%  82 Northern Illinois       34 30.7,   131 Kent State               3 23.9
 68%  53 Colorado State          39 26.5,    67 Wyoming                 31 19.9
 68%  46 South Carolina          35 26.7,    61 Vanderbilt              28 19.6
 68%  43 Southern Mississippi    37 33.7,   106 Alabama - Birmingham    28 25.3
 67% 204 Howard                  16 15.6,   211 North Carolina A&T       0  9.5
 67% 112 Central Florida         34 27.8,   127 Tulane                  24 20.1
 67% 104 Illinois State          38 33.5,   113 Northern Iowa            3 27.4
 67%  98 Appalachian State       49 25.2,   147 Wofford                 17 18.8
 67%  20 Texas A&M               30 43.4,    76 Kansas State            28 35.6
 65% 225 Charleston Southern     48 24.2,   232 Savannah State          28 17.0
 65% 215 Alabama A&M             28 13.6,   212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   13  9.2
 65% 172 Idaho State             27 27.3,   208 Sacramento State        17 21.6
 64% 227 Mississippi Valley Sta  35 26.4,   228 Texas Southern          28 21.4
 63%  84 Texas - El Paso         31 25.3,    83 Marshall                 3 21.1
 62% 196 Delaware State          41 22.2,   194 Morgan State            14 18.0
 62% 182 Monmouth                14 21.4,   185 Robert Morris            0 17.8
 61% 200 Grambling               52 23.7,   221 Jackson State           21 21.0
 61% 198 Albany                  25 23.5,   223 Saint Francis - Pennsy  16 20.2
 61% 163 Youngstown State        31 18.1,   153 Southwest Missouri Sta   7 15.2
 60% 102 Hawaii                  45 34.0,   136 San Jose State          38 30.9
 58%  42 Missouri                41 24.8,    32 Nebraska                24 23.0
 55% 162 Duquesne                22 15.0,   176 Marist                  14 14.0
 50% 180 Western Carolina        38 17.2,   190 Tennessee - Chattanoog  20 17.1

 48% 173 Central Connecticut     38 20.8,   184 Wagner                  34 21.2
 45% 130 Army                    20 24.9,   141 Akron                    0 26.3
 45%  50 Rutgers                 26 19.5,    70 Connecticut             24 20.6
 42% 224 Florida A&M             31 24.9,   206 Norfolk State           17 26.6
 41%  22 Louisiana State         20 15.9,     7 Auburn                  17 17.7
 40% 214 Sacred Heart            21 19.6,   189 Stony Brook             14 22.2
 40%  11 Michigan                23 18.5,    19 Iowa                    20 21.0
 39%  51 Texas Christian         48 29.8,    60 Air Force               10 33.0
 38% 210 Southern Utah           20 19.6,   179 Northern Colorado       17 23.5
 38% 207 Georgetown              24 12.0,   175 Fordham                 21 15.4
 38% 149 Hampton                 14 15.3,   111 South Carolina State    10 19.0
 38%  91 Colgate                 27 18.6,    92 Holy Cross              14 22.5
 38%  74 Wake Forest             27 23.8,    38 North Carolina State    19 27.8
 37% 217 Samford                 30 25.0,   216 Tennessee - Martin      22 29.9
 37% 188 Gardner - Webb          55 27.1,   186 Virginia Military       52 32.3
 37%  85 North Carolina           7 21.7,    35 Virginia                 5 27.8
 37%  71 Brown                   38 32.2,    66 Cornell                 24 36.9
 35% 134 Montana                 36 14.4,    95 California Poly         27 19.1
 33% 203 Sam Houston State       52 21.4,   165 Stephen F. Austin       24 27.2
 33% 195 Southeast Louisiana     37 26.0,   142 McNeese State           13 33.2
 33% 148 California - Davis      20 12.6,   129 North Dakota State      14 18.7
 33%  64 New Mexico              47 18.2,    52 San Diego State         24 24.2
 30% 157 Louisiana - Lafayette   13 17.6,   128 Middle Tennessee State  10 26.6
 30% 117 Houston                 28 15.3,    99 Mississippi State       16 22.2
 29%  93 Princeton               27 17.3,    62 Harvard                 24 25.9
 28%  72 Stanford                45 21.4,    23 Arizona State           35 30.6
 25% 101 Richmond                43 10.8,    39 Hofstra                 37 19.8
 24% 222 Alcorn State            38 18.3,   191 Southern                16 29.7
 24% 146 Rhode Island            48 17.9,   110 Villanova               30 30.3
 24% 115 Delaware                34 16.3,    41 James Madison           28 27.4
 24%  45 Northwestern            49 33.7,    27 Michigan State          14 43.3
 16% 183 Weber State             28 18.9,   122 Eastern Washington      23 36.6
 14% 152 Western Michigan        45 28.5,    56 Bowling Green           14 50.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.60  40 0.85  31 1.02  25 1.10   3 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108  75  78.1 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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