prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 187 Drake 56 49.7, 239 Butler 10 14.3
92% 130 San Diego 63 48.8, 237 Valparaiso 21 13.4
92% 12 Louisiana State 56 41.3, 176 North Texas 3 2.8
92% 1 Texas 47 46.1, 124 Oklahoma State 28 7.3
91% 149 Jacksonville State 43 36.7, 231 Tennessee Tech 17 7.5
91% 25 Alabama 35 34.3, 154 Utah State 3 3.5
89% 7 Auburn 27 27.8, 92 Mississippi 3 4.1
88% 148 Duquesne 31 32.4, 234 Iona 17 8.6
88% 143 Montana State 29 37.4, 222 Northern Arizona 22 14.6
87% 4 Miami - Florida 34 28.5, 87 North Carolina 16 2.8
86% 106 Appalachian State 35 41.1, 206 Tennessee - Chattanoog 25 15.1
86% 2 Southern California 55 46.0, 63 Washington State 13 23.5
85% 160 Eastern Illinois 26 40.0, 226 Tennessee - Martin 7 17.5
85% 139 Dayton 45 32.1, 233 Davidson 15 9.7
84% 183 Grambling 58 34.9, 229 Texas Southern 21 16.6
82% 62 Miami - Ohio 41 33.9, 173 Temple 14 17.5
82% 45 Texas - El Paso 38 34.2, 157 Rice 31 15.0
81% 175 Western Carolina 31 14.3, 214 Elon 26 3.2
81% 116 Lafayette 33 21.2, 164 Bucknell 20 6.8
80% 3 Virginia Tech 30 22.3, 20 Boston College 10 7.9
79% 133 South Carolina State 24 24.9, 186 Delaware State 3 11.5
79% 98 Louisiana Tech 31 42.8, 152 San Jose State 14 27.7
79% 13 Penn State 33 29.0, 49 Purdue 15 15.2
79% 8 Colorado 23 33.9, 86 Kansas State 20 20.3
78% 141 North Dakota State 37 23.7, 212 Southern Utah 21 12.2
78% 17 Florida State 35 28.1, 54 Maryland 27 15.1
77% 201 Samford 31 23.3, 227 Tennessee State 11 11.5
77% 188 Marist 52 28.2, 232 Saint Peter's 34 16.2
77% 179 Gardner - Webb 21 37.5, 218 Liberty 16 23.7
77% 74 Harvard 42 25.5, 127 Dartmouth 14 13.3
76% 178 Southwest Missouri Sta 31 30.1, 208 Indiana State 27 18.8
76% 46 Rutgers 31 28.7, 72 Navy 21 17.9
76% 32 Arizona State 44 35.5, 67 Washington 20 23.9
75% 66 Boise State 49 36.7, 93 Nevada - Reno 14 25.9
75% 18 Wisconsin 41 29.5, 84 Illinois 24 19.3
73% 97 Georgia Southern 55 27.5, 159 South Dakota State 42 17.8
72% 207 Sacred Heart 53 33.7, 224 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 24.0
72% 162 Coastal Carolina 38 33.5, 192 Virginia Military 14 23.7
72% 76 Princeton 20 30.1, 111 Cornell 17 20.3
72% 47 Michigan State 46 32.6, 77 Indiana 15 21.9
72% 14 Texas Tech 28 40.4, 82 Baylor 0 31.0
71% 40 Fresno State 27 35.0, 120 Hawaii 13 26.0
70% 112 Western Michigan 44 29.0, 158 Kent State 14 15.3
69% 217 Mississippi Valley Sta 58 25.4, 235 Prairie View 13 18.3
69% 200 Southeast Missouri Sta 52 31.7, 213 Murray State 21 24.3
69% 153 Eastern Washington 45 25.3, 203 Sacramento State 17 18.3
68% 131 Ohio 34 17.3, 189 Buffalo 20 10.7
67% 151 Southeast Louisiana 45 34.9, 198 Stephen F. Austin 23 26.6
67% 108 Kentucky 13 20.5, 117 Mississippi State 7 15.2
67% 105 Yale 37 19.4, 155 Columbia 3 13.9
65% 185 Bethune - Cookman 54 20.6, 219 North Carolina A&T 17 15.1
65% 145 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 22.4, 150 Troy State 28 17.2
64% 60 Wake Forest 44 28.6, 107 Duke 6 23.3
63% 137 Northwestern State 14 32.7, 144 Northeastern 12 27.5
63% 115 California - Davis 20 25.6, 126 California Poly 13 20.1
63% 68 Brigham Young 62 28.2, 70 Air Force 41 23.3
63% 42 Georgia Tech 10 21.3, 41 Clemson 9 17.3
63% 11 California - Los Angel 30 36.4, 39 Stanford 27 31.7
61% 174 Central Connecticut 15 20.6, 168 Monmouth 13 17.4
61% 33 Texas Christian 23 23.8, 73 San Diego State 20 20.2
60% 22 Oklahoma 31 22.0, 50 Nebraska 24 19.4
60% 5 Ohio State 45 23.7, 23 Minnesota 31 21.1
59% 166 Wofford 28 22.5, 193 The Citadel 10 20.7
59% 102 Marshall 27 22.3, 119 Tulane 26 20.1
59% 101 Central Michigan 21 27.5, 88 Toledo 17 25.3
59% 78 Hofstra 38 31.9, 118 Rhode Island 24 29.2
59% 58 North Carolina State 21 24.7, 44 Southern Mississippi 17 22.7
59% 9 Michigan 33 26.0, 30 Northwestern 17 24.1
57% 138 Northern Iowa 21 16.7, 128 Youngstown State 7 15.4
53% 122 Montana 37 23.1, 103 Portland State 16 22.5
53% 99 Central Florida 30 27.1, 121 East Carolina 20 26.5
51% 205 Florida A&M 27 26.5, 216 Morgan State 16 26.3
51% 177 Weber State 30 27.9, 167 Idaho State 21 27.6
44% 19 Florida 14 19.0, 15 Georgia 10 20.1
43% 37 New Hampshire 34 18.1, 56 Massachusetts 28 19.5
41% 191 McNeese State 31 27.1, 170 Sam Houston State 26 29.8
39% 215 Norfolk State 26 18.4, 196 Howard 7 21.3
39% 202 Stony Brook 38 13.0, 204 Robert Morris 37 16.0
38% 194 Albany 38 15.8, 190 Wagner 10 19.0
38% 75 Kansas 13 25.5, 31 Missouri 3 30.1
37% 71 Brown 34 28.0, 34 Pennsylvania 20 32.2
37% 52 Colorado State 35 28.2, 48 New Mexico 25 33.1
36% 223 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 64 17.2, 220 Jackson State 36 21.8
36% 96 Cincinnati 22 17.0, 100 Syracuse 16 21.7
35% 132 Maine 25 22.0, 83 Delaware 15 28.3
33% 172 Fordham 24 22.6, 114 Holy Cross 20 29.8
33% 165 Idaho 38 15.0, 140 New Mexico State 37 22.1
33% 156 Nicholls State 32 20.4, 109 Texas State - San Marc 29 26.1
33% 91 Lehigh 50 16.8, 69 Colgate 34 23.5
32% 136 Southern Illinois 31 19.6, 123 Western Kentucky 20 27.9
29% 125 Villanova 35 24.0, 59 William & Mary 21 32.5
29% 36 South Carolina 16 16.4, 21 Tennessee 15 24.1
28% 89 Richmond 18 19.2, 55 James Madison 15 30.2
25% 210 Alabama A&M 31 15.3, 169 Alabama State 28 25.6
23% 43 Iowa State 42 25.9, 16 Texas A&M 14 38.8
22% 95 Arizona 29 16.4, 57 Oregon State 27 28.8
19% 184 Akron 24 13.6, 110 Bowling Green 14 35.4
13% 199 Western Illinois 31 13.2, 80 Illinois State 17 43.1
10% 180 Ball State 31 12.4, 64 Northern Illinois 17 41.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 1.41 33 0.89 28 1.04 16 1.03 7 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 99 73 70.9 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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