2006 Week 2 (7-9 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 89%  16 West Virginia           52 52.7,   167 Eastern Washington       3 13.1
 87%  34 Miami - Florida         51 46.1,   220 Florida A&M             10  1.2
 87%   8 Louisville              62 56.4,   195 Temple                   0 11.2
 85%  42 Georgia Tech            38 44.2,   208 Samford                  6  3.4
 85%  19 California - Los Angel  26 50.7,   144 Rice                    16 16.2
 85%  13 Nebraska                56 44.0,   127 Nicholls State           7  9.9
 84%  25 Arkansas                20 39.8,   166 Utah State               0  3.5
 83%  35 Kansas                  21 42.4,   164 Northeast Louisiana     19 10.0
 81%  82 Southern Mississippi    45 39.9,   193 Southeast Louisiana      0 10.9
 81%  80 Kansas State            45 39.4,   187 Florida Atlantic         0 11.2
 81%  74 Michigan State          52 39.5,   177 Eastern Michigan        20 13.5
 81%  33 Texas A&M               51 41.0,   150 Louisiana - Lafayette    7 13.0
 81%  30 Wisconsin               34 40.7,   162 Western Illinois        10  7.7
 79%  44 Portland State          45 34.2,   194 Northern Colorado        3  2.6
 78%  17 Michigan                41 34.0,    89 Central Michigan        17 11.1
 78%  14 Florida                 42 37.3,    84 Central Florida          0 14.8
 78%  12 Texas Christian         46 30.8,   126 California - Davis      13  2.5
 77% 161 Monmouth                26 28.7,   231 Morgan State             9  3.6
 77%  61 Bowling Green           48 27.1,   174 Buffalo                 40  2.8
 77%  54 South Florida           21 30.3,   145 Florida International   20  6.9
 76% 200 Bethune - Cookman       55 38.6,   233 Savannah State           6 21.4
 76%  69 Wake Forest             14 29.9,   215 Duke                    13  1.0
 76%  22 Tennessee               31 36.8,    73 Air Force               30 18.2
 75% 143 Hampton                 46 27.6,   207 Howard                   7  6.9
 75%  58 Utah                    45 29.0,   154 Northern Arizona         7  6.4
 75%   6 Auburn                  34 29.6,   198 Mississippi State        0  4.1
 75%   2 Virginia Tech           35 27.2,    98 North Carolina          10  6.3
 74% 103 Memphis                 33 34.1,   170 Tennessee - Chattanoog  14 16.2
 74%  11 Florida State           24 24.8,    70 Troy State              17  3.7
 73%  39 Maryland                24 22.1,   136 Middle Tennessee State  10  2.8
 73%  31 Oklahoma                37 30.9,    93 Washington              20 14.9
 72%  20 Iowa                    20 26.9,   107 Syracuse                13 10.2
 71% 105 Baylor                  47 27.7,   158 Northwestern State      10 11.5
 71%  94 Houston                 45 32.3,   133 Tulane                   7 18.8
 71%  59 Purdue                  38 30.4,   132 Miami - Ohio            31 12.9
 71%  41 Rutgers                 33 33.1,    85 Illinois                 0 19.2
 71%   7 Louisiana State         45 21.8,    40 Arizona                  3  5.1
 70%  79 Washington State        56 34.2,   124 Idaho                   10 20.7
 70%   4 Oregon                  31 33.9,    48 Fresno State            24 20.9
 69%  67 Alabama - Birmingham    17 31.3,   111 East Carolina           12 19.0
 68% 204 Gardner - Webb          30 26.7,   232 Tennessee Tech          26 12.1
 68% 203 Wagner                   7 23.3,   230 Iona                     3  9.5
 68%  51 Arizona State           52 36.5,    88 Nevada - Reno           21 25.3
 67%  46 Oklahoma State          35 25.2,   112 Arkansas State           7 12.8
 67%  37 Iowa State              16 36.2,    66 Nevada - Las Vegas      10 24.9
 67%  29 Alabama                 13 22.7,    63 Vanderbilt              10 11.3
 66%   9 Georgia                 18 28.1,    50 South Carolina           0 16.8
 65% 160 Delaware State          63 25.6,   188 Saint Francis - Pennsy  28 15.3
 64% 113 California Poly         17 24.8,   179 Weber State              0 15.7
 64%  49 California              42 29.1,    83 Minnesota               17 18.9
 64%  15 Texas Tech              38 32.4,    53 Texas - El Paso         35 24.0
 64%  10 Pittsburgh              33 22.2,    56 Cincinnati              15 12.0
 63% 121 Montana                 36 25.5,   148 South Dakota State       7 16.9
 63%  62 Missouri                34 28.3,    77 Mississippi              7 20.8
 62%  65 Indiana                 24 31.3,   119 Ball State              23 25.2
 62%  21 Notre Dame              41 25.3,    24 Penn State              17 18.0
 61% 131 Army                    17  9.7,   206 Kent State              14 -0.1
 61% 106 Kentucky                41 30.4,   108 Texas State - San Marc   7 25.5
 60% 184 Eastern Illinois        31 34.6,   180 Indiana State           21 30.8
 60% 169 Duquesne                27 28.9,   196 Robert Morris            7 24.5
 60%  81 Colorado State          14 17.7,   109 Colorado                10 12.3
 59% 211 Norfolk State           32 31.6,   205 Virginia Military       19 28.6
 59%  32 Boise State             42 30.4,    28 Oregon State            14 26.6
 58% 186 Alabama A&M             30 32.1,   183 Grambling               27 29.5
 56% 185 Georgetown               7 10.3,   175 Stony Brook              0  7.7
 55% 178 Southern                31 19.8,   181 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 17.4
 55% 128 Youngstown State        34 17.5,   117 Maine                   14 15.1
 54% 141 Towson                  24 14.3,   172 Elon                    17 12.4
 54% 125 Lafayette               31 23.3,   153 Bucknell                 0 21.7
 53%  68 Virginia                13 24.4,    52 Wyoming                 12 23.4
 53%  64 Brigham Young           49 21.1,    47 Tulsa                   24 20.0
 51% 223 Tennessee State         25 19.7,   214 Murray State            15 19.3
 50%  26 Boston College          34 24.9,    18 Clemson                 33 24.8

 48% 129 San Jose State          35 30.6,   104 Stanford                34 31.4
 46%  71 Navy                    21 20.1,    43 Massachusetts           20 21.5
 45% 146 North Texas             24 15.8,   115 Southern Methodist       6 17.6
 44% 123 Marshall                54 18.4,    92 Hofstra                 31 21.0
 42% 235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   42  6.2,   213 Alcorn State            14 10.0
 41% 222 Texas Southern          10 17.1,   221 Alabama State            9 21.1
 40% 217 Marist                  28 17.7,   190 Sacred Heart            19 22.1
 40% 152 New Mexico              34 13.7,   149 New Mexico State        28 19.0
 38%  99 Appalachian State       21 19.1,    38 James Madison           10 25.4
 37% 156 Lehigh                  31 21.4,   140 Villanova               28 29.2
 37% 155 Northeastern            24 18.2,   130 Holy Cross              14 27.0
 36% 201 Eastern Kentucky        26 15.6,   142 Western Kentucky        21 25.5
 33%  86 Akron                   20 14.8,    36 North Carolina State    17 26.2
 33%  45 New Hampshire           34 14.2,    23 Northwestern            17 28.6
 33%   5 Ohio State              24 19.9,     1 Texas                    7 30.9
 32% 209 Charleston Southern     38  9.2,   171 The Citadel             35 23.6
 31% 134 Western Michigan        31 36.2,    55 Toledo                  10 46.3
 28% 191 Coastal Carolina        41 19.0,   138 Wofford                 38 34.1
 28% 139 Central Connecticut     17 18.7,    95 Georgia Southern        13 33.5
 26% 197 Fordham                  9  3.4,   120 Albany                   7 24.0
 26% 135 Ohio                    35  9.4,    60 Northern Illinois       23 28.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               21 1.11  30 1.08  30 1.17  13 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00
  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  94  73  64.3 1.13
  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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