prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 121 Hampton 26 41.8, 232 Morgan State 7 10.7
92% 50 Pittsburgh 51 40.1, 181 The Citadel 6 6.8
92% 45 Oregon State 38 46.8, 180 Idaho 0 14.7
92% 38 Brigham Young 38 41.0, 186 Utah State 0 3.5
92% 37 Rutgers 56 48.8, 225 Howard 7 0.5
92% 21 Texas Tech 62 49.2, 187 Southeast Louisiana 0 3.2
92% 1 Louisiana State 49 57.3, 165 Tulane 7 4.1
91% 190 Wagner 34 30.4, 238 Saint Peter's 0 3.9
91% 67 South Carolina 45 35.9, 203 Florida Atlantic 6 3.2
91% 2 Georgia 14 30.5, 135 Colorado 13 0.8
90% 60 Vanderbilt 38 46.4, 214 Tennessee State 9 8.0
90% 49 Massachusetts 48 36.0, 198 Stony Brook 7 2.5
90% 17 Richmond 48 32.5, 142 Bucknell 21 2.5
90% 4 Florida 26 39.3, 61 Kentucky 7 12.7
90% 3 Southern California 20 35.1, 97 Arizona 3 7.8
89% 107 Montana 59 29.4, 199 Sacramento State 14 5.8
89% 22 New Hampshire 56 43.3, 164 Dartmouth 14 11.1
89% 12 Nebraska 56 34.6, 82 Troy State 0 8.6
88% 192 Dayton 28 28.4, 237 Austin Peay 23 3.4
88% 111 William & Mary 38 39.9, 212 Virginia Military 6 13.0
88% 105 Northern Illinois 48 50.5, 207 Indiana State 14 23.4
88% 88 Western Michigan 41 25.6, 202 Temple 7 1.9
88% 9 Virginia Tech 29 29.7, 80 Cincinnati 13 4.5
87% 96 Appalachian State 41 40.1, 223 Gardner - Webb 6 10.9
87% 86 Toledo 41 49.4, 185 McNeese State 7 24.3
87% 40 Texas A&M 45 39.6, 129 Louisiana Tech 14 18.1
87% 27 Oklahoma 59 30.5, 94 Middle Tennessee State 0 9.2
87% 23 Iowa 24 33.3, 119 Illinois 7 13.7
86% 48 Southern Illinois 48 45.4, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 16 9.0
86% 11 Auburn 38 40.9, 177 Buffalo 7 1.5
85% 132 Duquesne 24 34.9, 200 Sacred Heart 21 14.6
85% 72 James Madison 52 27.9, 152 Northeastern 14 8.2
85% 7 Texas 37 33.2, 55 Iowa State 14 12.2
84% 84 Illinois State 35 41.1, 201 Murray State 14 21.2
83% 24 Clemson 52 41.8, 85 North Carolina 7 21.4
83% 10 West Virginia 27 35.4, 91 East Carolina 10 17.3
82% 8 Michigan 27 26.0, 43 Wisconsin 13 8.9
81% 41 Missouri 31 27.1, 89 Ohio 6 12.9
81% 35 Florida State 55 28.3, 92 Rice 7 10.2
80% 167 Louisiana - Lafayette 48 37.3, 228 North Carolina A&T 7 16.0
80% 149 Bethune - Cookman 22 35.1, 194 Norfolk State 21 20.6
80% 95 Portland State 20 26.1, 191 Weber State 10 10.9
80% 77 Akron 33 27.4, 141 North Texas 13 13.3
80% 74 Syracuse 34 26.7, 127 Miami - Ohio 14 11.9
80% 54 Maryland 14 33.6, 118 Florida International 10 16.7
79% 213 Liberty 28 26.8, 239 Savannah State 0 9.6
79% 115 Columbia 23 22.2, 168 Georgetown 21 6.4
79% 59 Georgia Tech 24 21.8, 101 Virginia 7 9.5
79% 26 Tennessee 33 35.2, 78 Marshall 7 18.6
78% 138 Holy Cross 27 30.0, 210 Marist 0 15.4
77% 134 Furman 42 33.3, 166 Western Carolina 7 20.3
77% 68 Princeton 26 15.3, 123 Lafayette 14 4.5
77% 13 Boise State 41 30.8, 32 Hawaii 34 17.7
77% 5 Ohio State 28 23.7, 20 Penn State 6 12.0
75% 154 Northern Arizona 33 34.9, 209 Idaho State 27 24.3
75% 6 Louisville 24 30.1, 52 Kansas State 6 18.7
73% 29 Utah 38 22.0, 81 San Diego State 7 12.4
72% 143 Delaware 24 30.5, 197 Rhode Island 17 20.9
71% 193 Alabama A&M 19 26.5, 230 Texas Southern 14 18.7
71% 16 California 49 33.3, 28 Arizona State 21 25.3
70% 42 Washington State 36 30.9, 112 Stanford 10 21.0
69% 176 Eastern Illinois 24 28.1, 218 Samford 13 20.7
67% 87 Central Michigan 24 28.9, 146 Eastern Michigan 17 21.8
67% 46 Wake Forest 27 23.5, 125 Mississippi 3 12.5
66% 109 San Jose State 17 28.7, 130 California Poly 7 21.4
65% 47 Harvard 38 38.5, 106 Brown 21 30.9
64% 195 Drake 21 29.6, 224 Valparaiso 7 23.9
64% 75 Kansas 13 22.2, 62 South Florida 7 17.8
63% 162 Coastal Carolina 33 29.6, 170 South Carolina State 14 25.0
62% 76 Nevada - Reno 31 21.1, 65 Northwestern 21 17.6
61% 73 Houston 34 25.7, 63 Oklahoma State 25 22.8
59% 158 Western Illinois 42 20.7, 188 Northern Colorado 28 19.0
59% 145 Albany 19 10.9, 126 Central Connecticut 14 9.4
58% 208 Alabama State 33 19.1, 222 Alcorn State 28 17.4
58% 136 Southern Methodist 55 13.3, 113 Arkansas State 9 12.1
58% 15 Notre Dame 40 30.9, 36 Michigan State 37 29.0
57% 128 Youngstown State 38 16.6, 108 California - Davis 24 15.1
53% 58 Connecticut 14 24.2, 83 Indiana 7 23.5
48% 39 Arkansas 24 14.2, 25 Alabama 23 14.6
45% 235 Jacksonville 31 16.8, 236 Butler 7 17.9
41% 151 Yale 21 10.5, 150 Cornell 9 14.4
40% 233 Jackson State 29 24.0, 220 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 26.7
39% 56 Tulsa 24 20.7, 57 Navy 23 23.9
38% 64 Air Force 31 25.9, 66 Wyoming 24 29.7
37% 117 North Dakota State 29 17.7, 114 Ball State 24 22.7
37% 69 North Carolina State 17 19.7, 33 Boston College 15 24.2
33% 215 Sam Houston State 20 33.0, 205 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 40.2
33% 182 Tennessee - Martin 24 11.6, 139 Jacksonville State 14 17.2
33% 179 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 18.4, 131 Georgia Southern 26 25.6
33% 103 New Mexico 26 25.3, 53 Texas - El Paso 13 31.5
31% 219 Southern Utah 30 14.9, 172 Texas State - San Marc 21 23.3
31% 71 Washington 29 22.9, 30 California - Los Angel 19 29.7
30% 174 South Dakota State 24 23.1, 157 Nicholls State 17 30.7
30% 160 Towson 33 18.9, 147 Hofstra 30 27.9
28% 229 La Salle 24 27.3, 221 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 35.9
27% 175 Eastern Washington 19 16.9, 144 Montana State 10 28.2
26% 79 Purdue 27 28.2, 19 Minnesota 21 39.3
25% 133 Kent State 38 17.2, 90 Bowling Green 3 28.9
21% 153 Villanova 27 13.7, 70 Pennsylvania 20 33.4
20% 234 Tennessee Tech 27 11.4, 161 Eastern Kentucky 14 31.3
16% 184 Monmouth 17 7.2, 93 Colgate 12 30.7
15% 120 Army 27 9.4, 51 Baylor 20 27.0
13% 171 Mississippi State 16 3.1, 98 Alabama - Birmingham 10 19.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.11 20 0.77 29 0.96 29 1.05 14 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 78 78.9 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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