prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 131 Central Connecticut 73 44.3, 238 Saint Peter's 13 8.1
92% 73 Vanderbilt 43 30.1, 194 Temple 14 2.7
92% 41 Hawaii 44 49.1, 176 Eastern Illinois 9 15.2
92% 11 Clemson 51 47.9, 136 Louisiana Tech 0 14.6
92% 8 Texas 56 53.3, 186 Sam Houston State 3 2.9
92% 3 Louisiana State 48 29.6, 128 Mississippi State 17 0.8
91% 84 Southern Illinois 55 52.2, 210 Indiana State 3 20.9
90% 37 James Madison 45 51.0, 217 Virginia Military 7 12.1
89% 33 Richmond 12 38.6, 153 Northeastern 7 7.7
89% 22 Penn State 33 29.4, 94 Northwestern 7 5.8
89% 4 Nebraska 39 40.7, 77 Kansas 32 11.6
88% 27 Wake Forest 34 24.2, 203 Liberty 14 -1.2
88% 15 Georgia 14 27.4, 135 Mississippi 9 6.5
87% 18 Tennessee 41 35.4, 119 Memphis 7 15.6
86% 202 Norfolk State 42 37.6, 236 North Carolina A&T 20 16.4
86% 75 San Diego 50 40.4, 214 Davidson 21 13.0
86% 29 Boston College 22 35.0, 123 Maine 0 11.0
85% 193 Drake 33 27.8, 231 Morehead State 7 9.3
85% 124 California Poly 18 23.0, 199 Southern Utah 14 2.9
85% 78 Appalachian State 45 23.3, 170 Elon 21 3.8
84% 166 Tennessee - Martin 20 35.2, 235 Austin Peay 10 13.5
83% 116 Holy Cross 28 22.7, 180 Fordham 21 4.8
83% 30 Missouri 28 29.1, 89 Colorado 13 11.2
83% 19 Notre Dame 35 43.2, 71 Purdue 21 25.3
83% 5 Florida 28 24.5, 31 Alabama 13 9.3
82% 91 North Dakota State 17 32.3, 183 Stephen F. Austin 9 16.9
82% 1 Southern California 28 32.2, 54 Washington State 22 9.4
81% 49 California - Los Angel 31 29.5, 117 Stanford 0 13.1
80% 113 Youngstown State 37 33.0, 204 Southwest Missouri Sta 10 18.2
80% 47 Iowa State 28 32.4, 99 Northern Iowa 27 16.1
80% 42 New Hampshire 52 33.0, 141 Delaware 49 16.5
78% 169 Grambling 53 31.8, 225 Prairie View 7 17.7
78% 127 Colgate 31 22.0, 167 Georgetown 14 9.8
78% 66 Cincinnati 24 28.2, 122 Miami - Ohio 10 14.7
78% 26 Pittsburgh 45 35.0, 63 Toledo 3 21.9
77% 149 Bucknell 48 28.6, 220 Marist 19 13.9
77% 92 Texas - El Paso 44 42.0, 140 New Mexico State 38 29.5
77% 61 Syracuse 40 26.2, 97 Wyoming 34 14.4
77% 46 Air Force 24 31.4, 83 New Mexico 7 18.5
77% 40 Miami - Florida 14 26.4, 68 Houston 13 13.9
75% 65 Kentucky 45 30.8, 96 Central Michigan 36 21.0
74% 139 Georgia Southern 24 27.9, 201 Western Carolina 14 18.7
74% 109 Pennsylvania 17 18.0, 137 Dartmouth 10 9.2
73% 174 Weber State 26 20.4, 190 Northern Colorado 21 12.4
71% 100 San Jose State 31 28.0, 126 San Diego State 10 19.6
70% 70 Southern Methodist 33 36.9, 143 Tulane 28 29.0
70% 48 Washington 21 19.0, 102 Arizona 10 11.7
69% 196 Southern 38 31.3, 213 Alabama State 20 23.7
68% 14 Auburn 24 17.6, 55 South Carolina 17 10.4
67% 82 Baylor 17 17.6, 81 Kansas State 3 12.1
67% 76 Northern Illinois 40 32.9, 134 Ball State 28 26.2
67% 44 Harvard 35 26.6, 98 Lehigh 33 20.3
66% 158 Jacksonville State 28 17.7, 197 Eastern Kentucky 0 12.0
65% 159 Western Kentucky 38 35.8, 164 Western Illinois 35 30.1
65% 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 33 23.9, 154 Eastern Michigan 14 18.5
65% 45 Southern Mississippi 19 26.2, 90 Central Florida 14 21.1
65% 2 Ohio State 38 15.7, 16 Iowa 17 11.4
64% 57 Princeton 19 26.4, 125 Columbia 6 20.1
64% 6 Texas Tech 31 27.5, 28 Texas A&M 27 22.7
63% 20 Oregon 48 33.7, 50 Arizona State 13 29.2
62% 151 Montana State 39 17.8, 179 Northern Arizona 32 14.8
62% 112 Alabama - Birmingham 21 20.8, 111 Troy State 3 16.7
61% 103 Furman 35 38.5, 145 Wofford 21 35.6
60% 195 Sacred Heart 25 19.9, 184 Wagner 17 17.5
60% 157 South Dakota State 20 22.3, 185 McNeese State 17 19.4
60% 9 California 41 33.2, 25 Oregon State 13 30.1
59% 182 The Citadel 24 20.1, 177 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 17.8
58% 52 Wisconsin 52 19.1, 87 Indiana 17 17.6
57% 221 Jackson State 29 28.6, 233 Texas Southern 5 27.1
56% 226 Southeast Missouri Sta 19 19.9, 219 Samford 14 18.7
52% 205 Florida A&M 25 27.0, 207 Tennessee State 22 26.6
51% 218 Robert Morris 45 20.6, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 20.5
49% 173 Idaho 41 11.0, 189 Utah State 21 11.2
47% 107 Virginia 37 7.6, 138 Duke 0 8.0
47% 12 Michigan 28 22.3, 24 Minnesota 14 22.9
43% 51 Rutgers 22 16.7, 62 South Florida 20 18.0
41% 168 Cornell 23 9.1, 142 Albany 21 10.6
41% 32 Boise State 36 17.6, 39 Utah 3 19.7
40% 133 Middle Tennessee State 35 15.0, 144 North Texas 0 17.4
40% 108 Kent State 37 11.0, 67 Akron 15 13.6
39% 85 Montana 26 24.1, 86 Portland State 20 27.6
38% 146 Hampton 29 18.4, 152 Delaware State 14 22.1
37% 215 Gardner - Webb 28 17.6, 211 Southeast Louisiana 21 22.5
37% 79 Nevada - Reno 31 24.6, 74 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 29.0
36% 234 Jacksonville 34 19.9, 232 Valparaiso 17 26.1
36% 110 Yale 37 10.7, 115 Lafayette 34 14.9
35% 208 Morgan State 28 18.2, 171 Bethune - Cookman 14 24.1
35% 121 Bowling Green 21 17.1, 104 Ohio 9 24.0
29% 34 Brigham Young 31 17.7, 23 Texas Christian 17 25.6
25% 200 Florida Atlantic 21 15.0, 161 Northeast Louisiana 19 27.7
25% 178 Rhode Island 28 28.0, 93 Brown 21 40.7
24% 165 Arkansas State 31 13.5, 130 Florida International 6 25.0
23% 148 Rice 48 15.3, 95 Army 14 28.3
23% 59 Navy 41 14.7, 35 Connecticut 17 26.4
22% 80 Colorado State 35 15.1, 43 Fresno State 23 27.7
21% 237 Butler 23 13.4, 216 Dayton 20 26.7
21% 172 Hofstra 16 21.9, 118 William & Mary 14 36.7
20% 228 Tennessee Tech 20 14.9, 192 Murray State 14 29.9
19% 206 Stony Brook 36 6.7, 160 Monmouth 17 22.0
15% 223 Sacramento State 21 12.7, 147 Eastern Washington 20 36.7
15% 101 Illinois 23 17.4, 38 Michigan State 20 37.4
15% 58 Georgia Tech 38 9.4, 17 Virginia Tech 27 27.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.90 30 1.04 26 0.86 27 0.96 7 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 72 75.0 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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