2006 Week 7 (12-15 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  21 Arkansas                63 51.3,   219 Southeast Missouri Sta   7  1.6
 92%   7 Clemson                 63 51.0,   189 Temple                   9  7.0
 91% 171 Delaware State          37 36.7,   236 North Carolina A&T      21  5.6
 91% 153 Duquesne                35 38.1,   237 Saint Peter's           21  9.6
 91%  98 San Diego               68 53.1,   233 Valparaiso               7  9.8
 91%  87 North Dakota State      45 35.3,   211 Mississippi Valley Sta   0  4.8
 91%  84 Northern Iowa           34 44.6,   221 Indiana State           14 17.7
 90% 135 Hampton                 42 43.2,   228 Norfolk State           13 12.1
 88%  74 Bowling Green           24 37.2,   179 Eastern Michigan        21 13.2
 88%  39 Miami - Florida         35 29.1,   134 Florida International    0  5.8
 88%   2 Texas                   63 37.3,    61 Baylor                  31  9.4
 87% 181 Drake                   29 27.8,   238 Butler                   0  7.4
 87%  12 Boise State             40 43.8,   162 New Mexico State        28 16.2
 86%   5 Louisiana State         49 39.7,    69 Kentucky                 0 15.7
 85% 144 Coastal Carolina        31 36.9,   227 Virginia Military       27 18.5
 85%  76 Montana                 24 39.1,   169 Northern Arizona        21 19.3
 85%  19 West Virginia           41 34.0,    86 Syracuse                17 14.2
 84% 115 Furman                  23 35.0,   182 The Citadel             17 17.0
 84%  23 Massachusetts           35 30.7,   140 Towson                   0 10.0
 84%   4 Southern California     28 30.6,    47 Arizona State           21 12.1
 83% 121 Portland State          34 33.3,   197 Idaho State             13 13.4
 83%  93 San Jose State          21 29.6,   161 Utah State              14 13.3
 83%  37 Florida State           51 26.8,   146 Duke                    24  9.3
 81%  20 Louisville              23 28.4,    63 Cincinnati              17 11.7
 80%   1 Ohio State              38 29.7,    50 Michigan State           7 15.2
 79% 125 Troy State              24 22.5,   170 Northeast Louisiana     19  9.8
 79% 120 Montana State           21 24.0,   196 Sacramento State        18 11.2
 79%  60 Harvard                 24 31.4,   129 Lafayette                7 16.8
 79%  52 Richmond                31 28.3,   152 Rhode Island             6 13.9
 79%  45 Alabama                 26 24.9,    90 Mississippi             23 12.8
 79%  16 Oklahoma                34 38.5,    56 Iowa State               9 22.2
 78% 114 Texas - El Paso         34 41.6,   158 Tulane                  20 29.7
 78% 103 Appalachian State       14 31.2,   149 Wofford                  7 19.3
 78%  54 Princeton               17 37.3,   132 Brown                    3 20.4
 77% 165 Stony Brook             30 40.3,   231 Saint Francis - Pennsy  20 24.3
 77%  70 Central Michigan        18 39.3,   127 Ball State               7 26.1
 77%  51 Southern Mississippi    31 27.7,    92 Houston                 27 15.5
 76%  13 Pittsburgh              52 27.3,    68 Central Florida          7 16.4
 75% 222 Alcorn State            44 23.9,   232 Texas Southern          23 14.6
 75% 155 Monmouth                28 17.3,   206 Wagner                   7  8.3
 75% 136 Georgia Southern        28 28.1,   166 Elon                    21 16.9
 74% 156 South Carolina State    28 33.3,   209 Florida A&M             21 23.2
 73% 177 Fordham                 13 21.6,   203 Marist                   9 12.3
 72% 188 Morgan State            18 21.6,   223 Howard                  12 13.5
 72%  10 Nebraska                21 27.7,    57 Kansas State             3 19.0
 70% 178 Davidson                27 22.2,   220 Morehead State          24 14.0
 70% 126 Delaware                10 30.1,   148 Hofstra                  6 22.1
 70% 105 Maine                   20 18.2,   116 Villanova                7 11.8
 70%  89 Southern Methodist      31 29.3,   109 Marshall                21 21.4
 70%  42 South Florida           37 27.2,   108 North Carolina          20 19.6
 69% 117 Mississippi State       35 19.3,   138 Jacksonville State       3 10.9
 68% 210 Tennessee State         30 23.3,   217 Tennessee Tech          20 16.9
 68%  96 Kent State              40 24.7,   106 Toledo                  14 18.0
 67% 191 Florida Atlantic        32 27.7,   201 Southern Utah            7 21.7
 67% 173 Eastern Washington      34 25.8,   214 Northern Colorado        0 18.7
 67%  25 Oregon                  30 31.4,    34 California - Los Angel  20 24.0
 66%   6 California              21 26.7,    32 Washington State         3 20.8
 65% 110 Pennsylvania            16 21.5,   122 Columbia                 0 16.2
 64% 164 Albany                  24 21.5,   204 Sacred Heart            13 16.9
 64% 107 Youngstown State        35 27.1,   159 Western Illinois        28 22.0
 64%  17 Boston College          22 20.6,    18 Virginia Tech            3 15.9
 63% 160 Western Kentucky        17 27.2,   194 Southwest Missouri Sta  14 23.2
 63%  65 Connecticut             21 23.3,    75 Army                     7 18.1
 63%  40 Tulsa                   31 24.8,    71 East Carolina           10 20.7
 63%  33 Wisconsin               48 24.3,    30 Minnesota               12 19.9
 62% 124 Miami - Ohio            38 23.6,   172 Buffalo                 31 19.4
 61% 185 Sam Houston State       37 23.8,   174 Nicholls State           7 21.0
 61% 154 William & Mary          14 18.1,   193 Liberty                 13 14.6
 61%  38 Texas A&M               25 27.7,    29 Missouri                19 24.7
 60%  48 Hawaii                  68 32.1,    77 Fresno State            37 30.0
 59%  97 Western Michigan        16 28.5,    82 Northern Illinois       14 26.6
 57%  73 Purdue                  31 28.2,   118 Northwestern            10 26.6
 56% 216 Alabama State           10 15.3,   230 Prairie View             7 14.3
 55% 175 Tennessee - Chattanoog  17 24.1,   199 Western Carolina        14 23.1
 50% 157 Bucknell                17 16.9,   176 Georgetown               7 16.9
 50% 104 Yale                    26 23.0,    83 Lehigh                  20 23.0
 50% 102 New Mexico              39 13.6,   123 Nevada - Las Vegas      36 13.6
 50%  62 Air Force               24 21.8,    43 Colorado State          21 21.7

 46% 137 Cornell                 38 24.3,   112 Colgate                 14 25.1
 44% 131 Holy Cross              24 14.0,   145 Dartmouth               21 15.1
 43% 234 Jacksonville            28 19.7,   226 Dayton                  21 21.1
 42% 119 Illinois State          37 26.7,    85 Southern Illinois       10 28.5
 41% 215 Jackson State           31 23.5,   198 Southern                28 25.3
 40% 213 Samford                 33 19.8,   218 Murray State             7 22.4
 40% 187 Eastern Illinois        28 16.1,   190 Eastern Kentucky        21 18.6
 40%   8 Michigan                17 19.0,    15 Penn State              10 21.2
 38%  94 Arizona                 20 10.5,   100 Stanford                 7 13.5
 37% 212 Southeast Louisiana     31 20.1,   186 Northwestern State      24 24.2
 37% 205 Texas State - San Marc  27 17.9,   200 McNeese State           17 21.9
 37%  81 Maryland                28 18.3,    78 Virginia                26 22.7
 36% 208 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   33 18.5,   184 Grambling               28 23.1
 36% 143 Rice                    34 19.2,    88 Alabama - Birmingham    33 24.0
 36%  55 Oklahoma State          42 24.1,    59 Kansas                  32 28.9
 35% 168 Idaho                   24 23.6,   163 Louisiana Tech          14 30.0
 35% 113 Ohio                    20 15.6,   101 Illinois                17 21.3
 33%  44 Rutgers                 34 17.9,    35 Navy                     0 24.2
 32%  64 Wake Forest             25 16.0,    53 North Carolina State    23 22.2
 31%  72 Wyoming                 31 13.6,    27 Utah                    15 21.1
 30%  26 Auburn                  27 13.4,     3 Florida                 17 20.5
 29%  67 Colorado                30 18.1,    24 Texas Tech               6 26.6
 28% 202 Robert Morris           23 14.5,   147 Central Connecticut     17 22.9
 28%  58 Oregon State            27 16.4,    41 Washington              17 24.8
 23% 142 Arkansas State          26 12.9,    95 Memphis                 23 24.5
 22%  91 Indiana                 31 17.2,    11 Iowa                    28 30.8
 20%  99 James Madison           42 18.6,    31 New Hampshire           23 37.5
 19%  80 Vanderbilt              24 12.2,    14 Georgia                 22 31.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               14 1.04  36 0.91  30 1.02  18 1.12   8 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106  77  76.0 1.01

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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