prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 14 Massachusetts 41 37.4, 146 Rhode Island 16 4.6
92% 1 Louisiana State 38 44.2, 82 Fresno State 6 9.4
91% 155 Albany 48 38.0, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 7.7
91% 75 Northern Illinois 43 37.3, 197 Temple 21 6.8
91% 10 Auburn 38 44.7, 152 Tulane 13 8.8
90% 3 Ohio State 44 36.1, 76 Indiana 3 6.9
88% 25 Boise State 42 38.4, 159 Idaho 26 13.9
88% 22 Brigham Young 52 42.3, 113 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 17.5
87% 29 Arizona State 38 34.7, 119 Stanford 3 11.1
87% 23 Penn State 26 36.6, 116 Illinois 12 10.2
86% 4 California 31 34.0, 60 Washington 24 10.2
85% 150 California - Davis 27 36.8, 218 Southern Utah 7 14.9
85% 93 Ohio 42 31.1, 178 Buffalo 7 9.9
83% 53 James Madison 31 31.6, 143 William & Mary 17 11.7
82% 174 Eastern Illinois 20 31.1, 215 Murray State 10 15.1
82% 31 Arkansas 38 28.0, 86 Mississippi 3 11.1
82% 26 Georgia 27 24.3, 89 Mississippi State 24 8.8
82% 9 Clemson 31 37.2, 43 Georgia Tech 7 20.5
81% 185 Davidson 37 29.7, 226 Dayton 36 13.2
81% 71 San Diego 37 26.4, 175 Drake 0 11.0
81% 30 Missouri 41 25.1, 78 Kansas State 21 9.1
80% 127 Furman 28 34.0, 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 22 18.3
80% 97 Montana 33 30.0, 188 Weber State 30 15.2
80% 35 Hawaii 49 41.9, 142 New Mexico State 30 26.9
80% 20 Virginia Tech 36 24.8, 50 Southern Mississippi 6 11.7
80% 12 Oklahoma 24 27.5, 45 Colorado 3 12.5
79% 168 Central Connecticut 27 23.7, 208 Wagner 6 10.4
79% 158 Northern Arizona 39 35.3, 199 Sacramento State 22 21.3
78% 169 Duquesne 40 23.8, 205 Marist 10 12.4
78% 104 Maine 21 18.3, 136 Hofstra 10 7.9
78% 72 Nevada - Reno 23 37.9, 114 San Jose State 7 25.4
77% 122 Montana State 42 28.0, 195 Idaho State 35 16.2
77% 28 Miami - Florida 20 18.2, 120 Duke 15 7.3
77% 5 Michigan 20 24.4, 24 Iowa 6 13.7
76% 173 Stony Brook 38 30.5, 200 Sacred Heart 21 19.5
76% 144 Monmouth 16 18.8, 194 Robert Morris 7 10.1
76% 37 Tulsa 35 30.1, 111 Memphis 14 19.9
75% 106 Lehigh 38 29.5, 151 Bucknell 7 17.2
75% 68 Illinois State 27 38.2, 157 Western Illinois 14 27.3
75% 39 Michigan State 41 25.5, 123 Northwestern 38 15.0
74% 88 Houston 34 35.7, 108 Texas - El Paso 17 26.8
74% 79 Akron 24 31.8, 110 Miami - Ohio 13 22.2
74% 17 Tennessee 16 27.7, 41 Alabama 13 16.9
73% 191 Grambling 36 33.2, 212 Jackson State 7 23.9
73% 181 The Citadel 30 23.8, 206 Western Carolina 27 15.4
73% 19 Notre Dame 20 31.1, 32 California - Los Angel 17 21.8
72% 74 Central Michigan 31 29.1, 99 Bowling Green 14 19.7
71% 187 Texas State - San Marc 38 24.3, 207 Southeast Louisiana 17 16.8
71% 13 Wisconsin 24 29.4, 65 Purdue 3 20.7
70% 18 Louisville 28 27.5, 84 Syracuse 13 18.4
69% 121 Arkansas State 29 19.3, 138 North Texas 10 12.9
68% 95 Virginia 23 29.3, 124 North Carolina 0 20.5
67% 190 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 20.4, 201 Alabama A&M 21 14.6
67% 189 Eastern Kentucky 27 23.4, 222 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 17.0
67% 141 Colgate 46 24.9, 183 Fordham 3 18.9
67% 125 Portland State 34 19.2, 140 Eastern Washington 0 13.7
67% 77 Baylor 36 33.4, 87 Kansas 35 26.1
67% 16 West Virginia 37 28.5, 56 Connecticut 11 21.0
66% 85 Yale 17 21.3, 96 Pennsylvania 14 15.3
65% 220 Charleston Southern 27 29.2, 223 Virginia Military 22 23.2
65% 46 Wyoming 24 24.5, 52 Colorado State 0 18.7
65% 36 Oregon State 17 17.7, 81 Arizona 10 13.0
63% 131 Louisiana - Lafayette 6 25.5, 170 Florida Atlantic 0 20.8
62% 229 Iona 28 15.9, 225 La Salle 0 12.8
62% 62 Minnesota 10 24.9, 63 North Dakota State 9 19.9
62% 11 Boston College 24 25.3, 40 Florida State 19 21.3
61% 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 21.6, 237 Texas Southern 18 18.2
61% 117 Middle Tennessee State 35 18.5, 162 Northeast Louisiana 21 15.2
61% 33 Texas Christian 31 19.3, 70 Army 17 15.7
60% 219 Howard 26 22.8, 232 North Carolina A&T 0 20.3
60% 90 East Carolina 38 21.7, 83 Southern Methodist 21 19.2
59% 172 Louisiana Tech 48 14.9, 165 Utah State 35 13.0
59% 149 Wofford 35 25.1, 171 Elon 21 23.4
59% 2 Texas 22 24.6, 8 Nebraska 20 22.8
58% 73 Maryland 26 24.6, 58 North Carolina State 20 22.8
56% 69 Cincinnati 23 19.8, 47 South Florida 6 18.6
55% 34 Texas Tech 42 27.7, 66 Iowa State 26 26.6
53% 101 Appalachian State 27 18.9, 139 Georgia Southern 20 18.3
52% 98 Western Michigan 41 23.7, 128 Ball State 27 23.2
52% 67 Princeton 31 18.0, 48 Harvard 28 17.5
50% 109 Brown 28 27.5, 94 Cornell 7 27.6
49% 214 Alcorn State 26 32.5, 204 Southern 10 32.8
49% 182 Delaware State 29 18.0, 203 Morgan State 7 18.3
46% 186 Tennessee - Martin 10 15.5, 202 Samford 6 16.2
44% 163 South Carolina State 13 19.4, 129 Hampton 6 20.5
41% 238 Butler 32 18.5, 235 Valparaiso 10 20.3
40% 216 Indiana State 28 23.4, 193 Southwest Missouri Sta 22 26.2
40% 213 Florida A&M 36 29.5, 221 Norfolk State 33 32.0
40% 42 South Carolina 31 18.3, 51 Vanderbilt 13 20.5
40% 38 Texas A&M 34 27.2, 49 Oklahoma State 33 29.4
38% 196 Northwestern State 9 20.9, 198 Nicholls State 0 24.5
38% 103 Marshall 31 24.9, 105 Alabama - Birmingham 24 28.7
38% 102 Northern Iowa 31 18.8, 107 Youngstown State 23 22.0
38% 92 New Mexico 34 15.6, 44 Utah 31 19.8
38% 55 Washington State 34 18.0, 27 Oregon 23 22.1
36% 230 Jacksonville 28 20.9, 227 Morehead State 24 26.3
35% 164 Eastern Michigan 17 25.8, 112 Toledo 13 31.5
33% 132 Holy Cross 38 16.2, 115 Lafayette 28 22.9
33% 21 Rutgers 20 11.8, 15 Pittsburgh 10 17.9
30% 192 Gardner - Webb 27 13.7, 184 Liberty 24 20.8
30% 156 South Dakota State 29 8.8, 147 California Poly 28 15.4
26% 137 San Diego State 19 15.9, 59 Air Force 12 24.8
25% 153 Dartmouth 20 11.0, 133 Columbia 7 19.0
25% 148 Northeastern 36 26.3, 61 New Hampshire 35 36.4
24% 210 Tennessee State 38 15.1, 176 Jacksonville State 31 27.0
24% 161 Towson 21 13.5, 126 Villanova 13 23.0
24% 130 Rice 40 15.2, 91 Central Florida 29 26.1
23% 160 Western Kentucky 27 17.1, 118 Southern Illinois 24 29.3
20% 209 McNeese State 20 16.5, 166 Stephen F. Austin 17 31.8
19% 134 Delaware 28 5.8, 54 Richmond 24 23.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.94 32 0.97 35 1.02 19 1.13 5 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 80 78.2 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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