2006 Week 11 (7-12 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  19 Penn State              47 42.9,   182 Temple                   0  2.3
 92%   5 Virginia Tech           23 37.6,   148 Kent State               0  1.7
 91%  75 Appalachian State       31 33.9,   209 Western Carolina         9  9.2
 90%  17 Boston College          28 33.2,   127 Duke                     7  5.3
 89%  82 Lehigh                  45 33.5,   184 Fordham                 14  8.3
 89%  45 Hawaii                  61 47.5,   165 Louisiana Tech          17 20.9
 88%   4 Brigham Young           55 38.2,    65 Wyoming                  7 14.4
 86% 180 Elon                    45 30.0,   236 North Carolina A&T       0  7.9
 86% 172 Jacksonville State      55 23.5,   225 Samford                  7  5.7
 86%   1 Louisiana State         28 29.7,    41 Alabama                 14  8.8
 85%  64 Nevada - Reno           42 26.1,   161 Utah State               0  4.3
 84% 215 Davidson                50 27.7,   237 Butler                  10  8.8
 84% 136 San Diego               56 37.1,   201 Dayton                  14 17.8
 84% 115 Lafayette               45 29.6,   192 Georgetown              14  9.0
 84% 109 Illinois State          42 43.0,   218 Indiana State           20 23.3
 84%  29 Massachusetts           10 16.9,    76 Maine                    9  3.6
 83% 119 Wofford                 55 29.6,   186 Tennessee - Chattanoog   0 12.4
 83%  30 Utah                    35 23.9,   104 Colorado State          22  5.7
 82% 195 Texas State - San Marc  41 31.7,   232 Texas Southern          21 13.4
 82%  42 Oklahoma State          66 40.4,   103 Baylor                  24 23.8
 81% 189 The Citadel             48 34.2,   227 Virginia Military       21 18.5
 81%  78 Fresno State            23 40.7,   158 New Mexico State        18 22.5
 81%  14 Clemson                 20 30.5,    70 North Carolina State    14 13.9
 81%   8 Florida                 17 27.3,    39 South Carolina          16 12.1
 81%   2 Ohio State              54 24.2,    68 Northwestern            10  9.3
 80% 128 Montana                 53 25.1,   204 Northern Colorado       21 11.0
 80%  46 Navy                    49 31.0,   163 Eastern Michigan        21 13.7
 79% 143 South Dakota State      31 30.1,   212 Southern Utah           21 16.6
 78% 200 Marist                  24 25.2,   228 Iona                    17 12.0
 78% 197 Alabama State           25 24.0,   224 Mississippi Valley Sta  20 12.1
 78% 135 Coastal Carolina        52 40.0,   206 Gardner - Webb          24 26.8
 78%  44 South Florida           27 24.5,    81 Syracuse                10 12.5
 78%  16 West Virginia           42 30.0,    56 Cincinnati              24 15.9
 77% 141 Hampton                 59 31.7,   205 Florida A&M              7 19.9
 77%  79 North Dakota State      51 15.8,   124 California Poly         14  5.6
 76%  23 Boise State             23 31.9,    93 San Jose State          20 21.1
 76%  21 Michigan                34 32.4,   102 Indiana                  3 20.5
 75% 193 Alabama A&M             35 28.1,   214 Alcorn State            26 17.7
 75% 183 Drake                   47 22.8,   226 Jacksonville            28 12.5
 75% 144 Portland State          13 23.5,   199 Sacramento State         7 14.3
 75%   7 Oklahoma                34 30.3,    20 Texas Tech              24 20.4
 74% 181 Eastern Washington      40 30.2,   203 Idaho State              6 20.2
 74%  96 Akron                   31 30.5,   142 Buffalo                 16 19.5
 72% 154 Northern Arizona        42 34.3,   175 Weber State             17 25.8
 72%  72 Colorado                33 21.3,    95 Iowa State              16 14.0
 72%  63 East Carolina           33 29.4,    86 Marshall                20 21.1
 72%  43 Georgia Tech             7 31.3,   106 North Carolina           0 23.2
 72%  26 Texas Christian         27 21.5,    77 New Mexico              21 13.8
 71% 213 Tennessee State         31 26.0,   223 Southeast Missouri Sta   0 18.0
 71% 156 Central Connecticut     35 23.9,   176 Stony Brook             32 16.1
 71% 137 Furman                  13 27.2,   159 Georgia Southern        10 18.7
 70% 179 Delaware State          33 29.4,   222 Norfolk State           10 20.9
 70% 177 Sam Houston State       28 26.6,   219 Southeast Louisiana     23 19.1
 69% 221 Jackson State           31 24.1,   230 Prairie View             7 17.1
 69% 166 Eastern Illinois        38 23.2,   211 Tennessee Tech          14 16.5
 68%  59 New Hampshire           63 27.9,   125 Rhode Island            21 21.0
 67% 160 South Carolina State    41 17.4,   196 Morgan State            16 12.1
 67%  99 Middle Tennessee State  38 18.3,   155 Arkansas State          10 12.7
 66%  67 Southern Mississippi    31 29.8,   131 Tulane                   3 24.1
 66%  34 Maryland                14 19.2,    37 Miami - Florida         13 13.6
 64% 121 San Diego State         21 24.4,   133 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 18.9
 64% 113 Delaware                28 34.7,   117 William & Mary          14 29.7
 64%  50 Arizona State           47 26.7,    55 Washington State        14 21.2
 63% 190 Liberty                 34 17.9,   185 Charleston Southern     20 13.5
 63%  92 Central Michigan        31 29.3,    90 Western Michigan         7 24.9
 62% 140 Colgate                 29 21.7,   132 Holy Cross              28 18.5
 62% 112 Troy State              24 22.2,   164 Florida Atlantic        17 17.7
 62%  88 Youngstown State        19 26.9,   145 Western Kentucky         3 22.8
 62%  60 Kentucky                38 31.9,    58 Vanderbilt              26 28.5
 62%   6 Southern California     35 26.9,     9 Oregon                  10 22.4
 61%  36 Minnesota               31 30.6,    80 Michigan State          18 26.6
 60%  27 Arkansas                31 25.9,    18 Tennessee               14 22.9
 60%  22 Wisconsin               24 15.8,    53 Iowa                    21 13.5
 59% 134 Southern Illinois       47 22.0,   116 Northern Iowa           23 20.3
 59%  25 Notre Dame              39 25.2,    48 Air Force               17 22.9
 59%  13 Nebraska                28 25.8,    35 Texas A&M               27 23.9
 58%  57 Houston                 37 25.3,    87 Southern Methodist      27 23.6
 58%  51 Purdue                  42 23.8,    85 Illinois                31 21.9
 54%  49 Connecticut             46 18.1,    33 Pittsburgh              45 17.4
 52%  24 Rutgers                 28 22.6,    11 Louisville              25 22.2

 47% 171 Eastern Kentucky        31 18.3,   194 Tennessee - Martin      28 18.9
 46% 202 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   45 28.0,   208 Southern                20 28.9
 46% 198 Robert Morris           41 16.5,   210 Sacred Heart            21 17.3
 45% 178 Stephen F. Austin       16 16.6,   187 Nicholls State          13 17.6
 44%  71 Princeton               34 19.7,    84 Yale                    31 20.9
 43% 173 McNeese State           29 19.9,   191 Northwestern State      26 21.3
 40% 188 Southwest Missouri Sta  24 24.2,   162 Western Illinois        21 26.7
 40% 146 Columbia                21 15.5,   100 Cornell                 14 17.9
 40%  38 California - Los Angel  25 24.3,    15 Oregon State             7 27.0
 39% 120 Central Florida         26 22.1,   123 Memphis                 24 25.7
 38%  94 Pennsylvania            22 20.1,    54 Harvard                 13 23.8
 37% 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy  35 21.1,   216 Wagner                  14 25.4
 37% 153 Dartmouth               19 19.5,    98 Brown                   13 24.3
 31% 167 Northeast Louisiana     35 17.3,   152 Florida International    0 24.8
 31% 147 Northeastern            34 13.6,   138 Hofstra                 24 20.6
 30% 118 Texas - El Paso         36 20.7,    97 Alabama - Birmingham    17 28.2
 30% 110 Villanova               21 21.6,    40 James Madison           20 29.8
 29% 169 North Texas             16 19.6,   149 Louisiana - Lafayette    7 27.9
 27% 105 Toledo                  17 23.6,    73 Northern Illinois       13 33.2
 25% 130 Towson                  31 15.2,    89 Richmond                 7 24.9
 25%  61 Arizona                 24 15.9,    12 California              20 25.8
 24% 150 Monmouth                19  7.9,   129 Albany                   0 16.9
 23% 235 La Salle                37 11.0,   231 Saint Peter's           28 22.5
 23%  52 Kansas State            45 17.0,     3 Texas                   42 29.2
 23%  47 Wake Forest             30 14.8,    28 Florida State            0 25.4
 22% 234 Austin Peay             23 13.0,   220 Morehead State          21 27.0
 22% 108 Rice                    41 17.6,    66 Tulsa                   38 29.9
 22%  31 Georgia                 37 11.5,    10 Auburn                  15 23.3
 20% 217 Howard                  28 15.9,   170 Bethune - Cookman        0 31.6
 20% 126 Stanford                20 10.1,    69 Washington               3 23.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               15 0.94  28 1.06  40 0.90  23 1.14   4 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110  80  79.4 1.01

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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