prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 150 South Carolina State 41 39.6, 236 North Carolina A&T 19 4.5
92% 26 Boise State 49 38.7, 184 Utah State 10 1.3
92% 7 Florida 62 53.5, 209 Western Carolina 0 1.6
92% 1 Louisiana State 23 37.5, 109 Mississippi 20 3.8
91% 55 Navy 42 38.7, 187 Temple 6 7.6
91% 17 Wisconsin 35 40.8, 167 Buffalo 3 4.7
90% 142 California Poly 55 47.0, 239 Savannah State 0 1.8
90% 90 Southern Illinois 59 38.8, 207 Southern Utah 0 10.2
88% 72 Wofford 34 38.0, 206 Gardner - Webb 17 13.0
88% 15 Notre Dame 41 37.5, 110 Army 9 13.8
87% 166 Western Kentucky 24 34.3, 234 Austin Peay 14 4.9
87% 6 Brigham Young 42 39.6, 82 New Mexico 17 15.3
86% 84 Fresno State 34 38.3, 171 Idaho 0 16.7
86% 37 Massachusetts 22 30.8, 137 Hofstra 16 9.1
85% 193 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 34.5, 233 Texas Southern 31 15.4
85% 141 Coastal Carolina 31 40.4, 205 Charleston Southern 17 21.4
85% 58 North Dakota State 41 34.2, 160 South Dakota State 28 12.6
85% 39 Georgia Tech 49 26.5, 118 Duke 21 7.7
85% 35 Texas Christian 52 26.4, 112 San Diego State 0 7.1
83% 47 Nevada - Reno 42 37.3, 168 Louisiana Tech 0 20.1
82% 64 Princeton 27 25.6, 140 Dartmouth 17 9.0
82% 51 Southern Mississippi 25 24.2, 120 Alabama - Birmingham 20 7.1
82% 22 Penn State 17 32.3, 81 Michigan State 13 13.6
82% 9 Oklahoma 36 36.5, 115 Baylor 10 20.6
81% 144 California - Davis 30 28.6, 198 Sacramento State 16 13.1
80% 33 South Carolina 52 27.2, 96 Middle Tennessee State 7 10.9
79% 45 Hawaii 54 40.4, 94 San Jose State 17 25.4
79% 13 Louisville 31 28.3, 49 South Florida 8 14.4
79% 2 Southern California 23 29.6, 27 California 9 16.1
77% 178 Liberty 38 29.0, 229 Virginia Military 32 17.0
77% 56 Florida State 28 25.8, 116 Western Michigan 20 12.1
77% 3 Ohio State 42 17.6, 10 Michigan 39 8.3
76% 66 Kentucky 42 28.1, 122 Northeast Louisiana 40 15.3
76% 50 Purdue 28 33.6, 88 Indiana 19 20.7
76% 20 Boston College 38 26.6, 46 Maryland 16 15.8
75% 54 Houston 23 33.1, 131 Memphis 20 23.8
73% 71 Northwestern 27 27.0, 99 Illinois 16 17.3
73% 18 Arkansas 28 23.6, 77 Mississippi State 14 15.1
71% 152 Northern Arizona 54 28.0, 200 Northern Colorado 3 20.1
71% 143 Kent State 14 20.0, 154 Eastern Michigan 6 12.9
70% 92 Ohio 17 22.9, 113 Akron 7 16.1
69% 182 Fordham 38 21.2, 202 Georgetown 30 13.5
69% 173 Stephen F. Austin 20 21.6, 190 Northwestern State 11 14.6
68% 191 Tennessee - Martin 42 25.3, 225 Murray State 14 18.8
68% 175 Eastern Kentucky 20 24.5, 199 Tennessee State 3 16.9
67% 32 Minnesota 34 25.3, 38 Iowa 24 18.9
65% 24 Texas Tech 30 37.0, 25 Oklahoma State 24 31.3
64% 133 Montana 13 22.8, 145 Montana State 7 17.9
64% 29 Tennessee 39 27.4, 68 Vanderbilt 10 23.0
63% 180 McNeese State 26 22.0, 185 Nicholls State 10 18.1
63% 4 Virginia Tech 27 12.5, 23 Wake Forest 6 8.7
62% 130 Northeastern 45 24.1, 128 Rhode Island 31 19.8
61% 192 Weber State 30 25.5, 216 Idaho State 27 22.6
61% 93 Wyoming 34 26.4, 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 26 23.2
61% 8 West Virginia 45 34.0, 40 Pittsburgh 27 29.6
60% 159 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 18.6, 188 Florida International 7 16.0
60% 98 Marshall 49 31.0, 85 Texas - El Paso 21 28.7
60% 60 James Madison 38 22.5, 101 Towson 3 19.6
60% 42 Utah 17 22.1, 70 Air Force 14 19.4
59% 63 Kansas 39 25.8, 44 Kansas State 20 23.7
59% 52 New Hampshire 19 21.1, 86 Maine 13 19.3
54% 100 Rice 18 26.8, 78 East Carolina 17 26.0
53% 219 Tennessee Tech 32 19.0, 226 Southeast Missouri Sta 29 18.4
52% 105 Lafayette 49 24.7, 80 Lehigh 27 24.3
50% 139 Northern Iowa 38 24.4, 117 Illinois State 27 24.3
49% 196 Howard 20 12.0, 174 Delaware State 17 12.1
49% 102 Southern Methodist 34 24.2, 73 Tulsa 24 24.5
49% 95 Northern Illinois 31 22.5, 67 Central Michigan 10 22.7
48% 169 Eastern Illinois 28 19.5, 148 Jacksonville State 24 19.9
48% 107 Richmond 31 19.3, 135 William & Mary 14 19.6
47% 43 Oregon State 30 13.2, 57 Stanford 7 14.0
45% 21 Auburn 22 16.6, 34 Alabama 15 17.6
41% 165 Bucknell 31 19.2, 134 Colgate 28 21.1
40% 208 Florida A&M 35 21.7, 194 Bethune - Cookman 21 25.1
40% 97 Villanova 28 27.1, 108 Delaware 27 29.4
39% 155 Tulane 10 21.8, 103 Central Florida 9 25.1
39% 124 Cornell 28 20.1, 74 Pennsylvania 27 23.3
39% 91 Syracuse 20 21.3, 41 Connecticut 14 25.4
38% 62 Cincinnati 30 19.1, 28 Rutgers 11 23.2
37% 215 Alcorn State 32 25.0, 212 Jackson State 31 29.6
37% 121 Miami - Ohio 9 24.1, 126 Bowling Green 7 28.6
36% 87 Virginia 17 13.1, 48 Miami - Florida 7 17.1
35% 162 Florida Atlantic 17 15.1, 156 North Texas 16 19.9
33% 136 Columbia 22 16.4, 114 Brown 21 22.2
33% 106 Ball State 20 23.8, 89 Toledo 17 31.1
32% 183 Texas State - San Marc 28 23.3, 172 Sam Houston State 21 30.5
32% 129 North Carolina 23 17.3, 61 North Carolina State 9 25.1
31% 30 California - Los Angel 24 22.4, 19 Arizona State 12 30.5
29% 83 Yale 34 19.7, 59 Harvard 13 27.5
27% 104 Iowa State 21 20.4, 31 Missouri 16 29.3
26% 177 The Citadel 44 14.8, 158 Elon 7 23.5
26% 111 Washington 35 14.3, 69 Washington State 32 23.8
23% 157 Arkansas State 33 12.2, 123 Troy State 26 22.3
20% 53 Arizona 37 16.4, 16 Oregon 10 31.7
13% 232 Prairie View 13 8.3, 189 Alabama A&M 7 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.86 30 0.83 22 0.97 20 1.12 6 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 95 65 67.7 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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