prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 3 Virginia Tech 17 25.2, 66 Virginia 0 2.8
83% 16 Nebraska 37 30.0, 72 Colorado 14 12.0
82% 73 Fresno State 34 35.9, 192 Louisiana Tech 27 16.2
80% 23 Tennessee 17 37.4, 79 Kentucky 12 21.0
79% 78 Tulsa 38 32.0, 129 Tulane 3 17.6
79% 45 Rutgers 38 27.0, 80 Syracuse 7 13.5
78% 92 New Mexico 41 27.5, 148 San Diego State 14 14.6
78% 28 Hawaii 42 38.2, 56 Purdue 35 25.3
76% 68 Northern Illinois 27 26.6, 151 Eastern Michigan 0 16.3
76% 2 Southern California 44 26.5, 14 Notre Dame 24 16.0
75% 17 Texas Christian 45 22.9, 76 Colorado State 14 12.8
74% 105 Toledo 31 25.6, 144 Bowling Green 21 15.7
73% 100 Ball State 30 22.9, 127 Kent State 6 14.1
72% 37 Missouri 42 29.8, 50 Kansas 17 20.8
70% 126 San Jose State 28 28.6, 177 Idaho 13 21.1
70% 19 Georgia 15 26.4, 43 Georgia Tech 12 17.3
70% 6 Louisiana State 31 25.5, 20 Arkansas 26 18.3
69% 99 Central Michigan 55 27.1, 164 Buffalo 28 20.2
68% 149 Northeast Louisiana 23 23.8, 166 North Texas 3 15.7
68% 67 Southern Mississippi 42 28.9, 81 Marshall 7 21.2
68% 4 Florida 21 25.4, 39 Florida State 14 17.6
65% 106 Central Florida 31 20.7, 112 Alabama - Birmingham 22 15.9
64% 136 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 20.7, 135 Arkansas State 13 16.3
64% 87 Mississippi 20 18.6, 90 Mississippi State 17 14.3
64% 8 Louisville 48 27.9, 42 Pittsburgh 24 22.5
63% 157 Florida Atlantic 31 17.1, 171 Florida International 0 13.3
63% 41 Oregon State 30 27.2, 40 Oregon 28 22.5
62% 10 Brigham Young 33 24.9, 30 Utah 31 21.5
60% 9 Oklahoma 27 24.7, 32 Oklahoma State 21 22.1
56% 153 New Mexico State 42 20.7, 172 Utah State 20 19.5
52% 98 North Carolina 45 20.8, 131 Duke 44 20.2
48% 35 Cincinnati 26 19.5, 58 Connecticut 23 19.8
43% 141 California - Davis 37 24.1, 110 San Diego 27 26.0
42% 24 Boise State 38 19.2, 38 Nevada - Reno 7 20.7
41% 114 Rice 31 27.0, 77 Southern Methodist 27 28.9
40% 95 Western Michigan 17 22.9, 104 Akron 0 25.5
40% 49 Wake Forest 38 16.3, 60 Maryland 24 18.8
38% 210 Southern 21 27.8, 194 Grambling 17 31.5
38% 36 Arizona State 28 16.9, 34 Arizona 14 20.9
37% 139 Troy State 21 20.1, 138 Middle Tennessee State 20 24.3
36% 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 42 20.7, 74 Air Force 39 25.7
35% 132 Memphis 38 24.7, 124 Texas - El Paso 19 30.0
35% 96 Ohio 34 12.4, 94 Miami - Ohio 24 17.2
35% 84 East Carolina 21 14.9, 82 North Carolina State 16 19.5
35% 15 South Carolina 31 20.1, 11 Clemson 28 26.0
33% 48 Miami - Florida 17 15.4, 12 Boston College 14 20.7
17% 31 Texas A&M 12 18.4, 5 Texas 7 36.4
15% 54 South Florida 24 16.5, 7 West Virginia 19 36.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.51 24 0.90 12 1.32 5 0.71 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 48 31 32.8 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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