2006 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 78%  14 South Carolina          44 32.7,    66 Houston                 36 19.6
 77%  18 Texas Christian         37 24.0,    69 Northern Illinois        7 12.8
 77%   7 Louisville              24 24.8,    43 Wake Forest             13 13.6
 76%  12 Boston College          25 25.6,    47 Navy                    24 15.7
 76%  11 West Virginia           38 30.5,    46 Georgia Tech            35 19.9
 75%   6 Texas                   26 27.5,    39 Iowa                    24 17.7
 74%  38 Miami - Florida         21 19.4,    76 Nevada - Reno           20 11.0
 70%  73 Central Michigan        31 27.5,   122 Middle Tennessee State  14 19.6
 70%   3 Louisiana State         41 29.6,    16 Notre Dame              14 22.1
 69%  29 Rutgers                 37 26.7,    50 Kansas State            10 19.4
 68%  63 Southern Mississippi    28 19.9,   100 Ohio                     7 14.3
 67%  44 Cincinnati              27 22.7,    80 Western Michigan        24 16.5
 66%  45 South Florida           24 21.5,    77 East Carolina            7 16.5
 66%   2 Southern California     32 22.2,    13 Michigan                18 16.5
 64%  37 Utah                    25 23.8,    58 Tulsa                   13 18.7
 64%  24 Texas Tech              44 31.5,    40 Minnesota               41 26.6
 64%   9 Brigham Young           38 35.1,    28 Oregon                   8 30.6
 61% 204 Alabama A&M             22 24.1,   199 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   13 20.9
 60%  41 Hawaii                  41 35.1,    31 Arizona State           24 32.5
 60%  10 Auburn                  17 20.1,    19 Nebraska                14 18.0
 51%  26 California              45 24.3,    27 Texas A&M               10 24.1
 50%  33 Oregon State            39 22.8,    32 Missouri                38 22.8
 50%  20 Penn State              20 17.4,    23 Tennessee               10 17.4

 49%  36 Oklahoma State          34 23.4,    34 Alabama                 31 23.6
 46%  25 Wisconsin               17 18.9,    21 Arkansas                14 19.6
 45%  55 Appalachian State       28 19.3,    48 Massachusetts           17 20.2
 44% 123 Troy State              41 25.3,   116 Rice                    17 26.6
 43%   4 Florida                 41 18.4,     1 Ohio State              14 19.9
 40%  65 Maryland                24 25.5,    49 Purdue                   7 28.0
 40%  15 Boise State             43 17.9,     8 Oklahoma                42 20.5
 38%  42 Florida State           44 18.7,    30 California - Los Angel  27 22.2
 27%  22 Georgia                 31 10.7,     5 Virginia Tech           24 18.1
 26% 108 San Jose State          20 19.9,    81 New Mexico              12 28.8
 23%  68 Kentucky                28 24.4,    17 Clemson                 20 36.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.74  13 1.31  11 0.97   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  34  23  22.1 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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