8 Jan 2008: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2007 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4   6 17.6  5.7 Florida                  120 45   0 12.7  4.3 Fordham                 
  2 26   6 16.2  6.7 Louisiana State          121 20   0 13.4  3.7 Bowling Green           
  3  5   6 16.3  6.5 Oklahoma                 122 14   0 13.2  3.9 Ohio                    
  4 15   6 16.0  6.6 West Virginia            123 14   0 13.0  4.0 Furman                  
  5  5   6 14.7  7.5 Southern California      124 15   0 12.0  4.7 Youngstown State        
  6  5   6 15.8  6.5 Kansas                   125 48   0 13.1  3.9 California Poly         
  7  6   5 14.1  7.6 Ohio State               126 14   0 11.9  4.7 Western Kentucky        
  8 17   5 16.3  5.9 Oregon                   127 28   0 13.0  3.9 Florida Atlantic        
  9  7   5 14.8  6.8 Georgia                  128 47   0 12.8  4.0 Cornell                 
 10  7   5 13.7  7.4 Virginia Tech            129 43   0 12.1  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
 11  7   5 15.3  6.3 Missouri                 130 25   0 13.0  3.8 Southern Methodist      
 12 35   5 15.1  6.3 Clemson                  131 17   0 11.6  4.9 Northeastern            
 13  7   4 13.3  7.5 Auburn                   132 16   0 11.7  4.8 Miami - Ohio            
 14 21   5 15.5  5.9 Texas                    133 40   0 11.7  4.8 San Jose State          
 15 26   5 15.0  6.2 Arizona State            134 18   0 13.2  3.6 Memphis                 
 16 18   4 14.3  6.7 Michigan                 135 60   0 12.6  3.9 Liberty                 
 17 13   4 14.0  6.8 Penn State               136 20   0 12.0  4.4 Arkansas State          
 18 36   4 15.7  5.4 Tennessee                137 25   0 13.1  3.5 Dartmouth               
 19 18   4 15.5  5.6 Texas Tech               138 39   0 10.8  5.3 Maine                   
 20 33   4 14.3  6.4 Oregon State             139 44   0 11.2  4.9 Albany                  
 21 11   4 14.9  6.0 South Florida            140 33   0 12.1  4.2 Tulane                  
 22  9   4 14.6  6.1 Boston College           141 48   0 10.9  5.1 Army                    
 23 11   4 14.6  6.1 Brigham Young            142 19   0 12.8  3.7 Illinois State          
 24 33   4 15.4  5.5 Arkansas                 143 36   0 11.6  4.5 Kent State              
 25 10   4 14.6  6.1 Cincinnati               144 51   0 12.6  3.7 The Citadel             
 26 10   4 13.4  6.9 Utah                     145 26   0 11.7  4.4 Middle Tennessee State  
 27 11   4 13.9  6.5 South Carolina           146 16   0 10.6  5.2 Towson                  
 28 21   4 14.5  6.0 Rutgers                  147 21   0 11.6  4.4 Bucknell                
 29 11   4 15.3  5.4 Boise State              148 17   0 12.1  4.0 Buffalo                 
 30 10   4 16.0  4.9 Kentucky                 149 16   0 13.2  3.2 William & Mary          
 31 36   4 15.2  5.4 California               150 19   0 13.9  2.7 Rice                    
 32 11   4 13.9  6.3 Texas Christian          151 19   0 11.9  4.2 Eastern Michigan        
 33 35   3 16.2  4.6 Louisville               152 35   0 12.0  4.1 Akron                   
 34 36   4 14.6  5.7 Wisconsin                153 22   0 11.4  4.4 Columbia                
 35 11   4 14.3  5.9 Alabama                  154 24   0 11.6  4.3 Alabama - Birmingham    
 36 54   3 14.8  5.5 Arizona                  155 14   0 10.6  5.0 Western Illinois        
 37 14   3 15.5  5.0 Michigan State           156 50   0 11.8  4.1 Eastern Washington      
 38 17   3 14.0  5.9 Wake Forest              157 33   0 11.8  4.0 Rhode Island            
 39 17   3 16.0  4.4 Hawaii                   158 25   0 11.2  4.4 Utah State              
 40 40   3 14.9  5.2 Oklahoma State           159 14   0 12.3  3.6 California - Davis      
 41 18   3 16.0  4.4 Nebraska                 160 83   0 11.2  4.4 South Carolina State    
 42 11   3 14.4  5.5 Texas A&M                161 58   0 11.9  3.8 Hampton                 
 43 54   3 13.5  6.1 California - Los Angeles 162 13   0 12.4  3.4 Northern Arizona        
 44 48   3 13.4  6.2 Maryland                 163 32   0 11.6  3.9 Northern Illinois       
 45 37   3 12.2  7.0 Yale                     164 29  -1 10.2  4.9 Temple                  
 46 17   3 15.7  4.4 Tulsa                    165 13  -1 11.0  4.3 McNeese State           
 47 30   3 14.7  5.2 Purdue                   166 67  -1 11.4  4.0 Eastern Kentucky        
 48 14   3 13.9  5.8 Florida State            167 31  -1 11.7  3.7 Louisiana Tech          
 49 39   3 13.6  5.9 Connecticut              168 76  -1 12.1  3.3 Stony Brook             
 50 72   3 14.7  5.1 Washington               169 19  -1 11.3  3.9 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 51 22   3 15.5  4.4 Appalachian State        170 43  -1 10.5  4.5 Nicholls State          
 52 43   3 13.1  6.2 Harvard                  171 53  -1 11.3  3.8 Duquesne                
 53 13   3 14.2  5.4 Air Force                172 22  -1 11.4  3.7 Coastal Carolina        
 54 21   3 13.3  6.0 Pittsburgh               173 29  -1 10.3  4.5 Monmouth                
 55 21   3 13.4  5.9 Massachusetts            174 69  -1 11.2  3.7 Grambling               
 56 34   3 13.3  6.0 Vanderbilt               175 90  -1 12.0  3.1 Davidson                
 57 13   3 14.0  5.4 Colorado                 176 30  -1 11.4  3.6 Idaho                   
 58 13   3 13.8  5.5 Georgia Tech             177 30  -1 12.3  2.7 New Mexico State        
 59 15   2 15.1  4.5 Kansas State             178 14  -1 10.0  4.5 Montana State           
 60 25   2 13.8  5.4 Illinois                 179 19  -1 11.7  3.1 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 61 32   2 13.1  5.9 Virginia                 180 14  -1 10.6  3.9 Gardner - Webb          
 62 17   2 12.9  6.0 New Mexico               181 22  -1 10.9  3.6 Sam Houston State       
 63 34   2 14.1  5.0 Central Florida          182 71  -2 11.7  3.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 64 40   2 14.2  4.9 Holy Cross               183 80  -2 11.9  2.7 Jackson State           
 65 61   2 12.4  6.2 Notre Dame               184 57  -2 11.6  2.9 Alabama A&M             
 66 80   2 14.1  4.9 Washington State         185 39  -2 10.8  3.5 Drake                   
 67 50   2 12.2  6.3 Iowa                     186 37  -2 10.7  3.6 Eastern Illinois        
 68 15   2 14.5  4.6 Delaware                 187 77  -2  9.8  4.2 Delaware State          
 69 72   2 12.8  5.8 North Carolina State     188 19  -2 10.8  3.5 Georgetown              
 70 49   2 12.8  5.9 Stanford                 189 19  -2 11.1  3.2 Central Connecticut     
 71 21   2 12.3  6.2 Mississippi State        190 40  -2  9.5  4.3 Robert Morris           
 72 32   2 13.8  5.0 James Madison            191 39  -2 10.5  3.5 Jacksonville State      
 73 24   2 16.1  3.3 Navy                     192 26  -2 10.2  3.7 Florida International   
 74 27   2 13.5  5.2 Richmond                 193 57  -2 10.5  3.5 Southern                
 75 27   2 14.9  4.1 New Hampshire            194 13  -2 12.3  2.1 Texas State - San Marcos
 76 32   2 12.8  5.7 Lafayette                195 59  -2  9.6  4.1 Wagner                  
 77 50   2 12.9  5.5 Miami - Florida          196 41  -2 10.7  3.2 Morgan State            
 78 13   2 13.9  4.8 Fresno State             197 15  -2 12.4  1.9 Portland State          
 79 38   2 13.4  5.2 North Carolina           198 21  -2 10.9  3.1 Weber State             
 80 36   2 14.2  4.5 East Carolina            199 67  -2 10.5  3.3 Bethune - Cookman       
 81 34   2 12.9  5.5 Northern Iowa            200 17  -2 11.9  2.2 North Texas             
 82 37   2 14.4  4.3 Indiana                  201 17  -2 11.9  2.1 Western Carolina        
 83 13   2 13.9  4.7 Villanova                202 76  -2 10.2  3.4 Morehead State          
 84 29   2 13.5  5.0 Troy State               203 56  -3  9.3  4.0 Prairie View            
 85 14   1 13.6  4.8 Ball State               204 26  -3  9.7  3.6 Sacramento State        
 86 32   1 12.2  5.8 Pennsylvania             205 18  -3 10.5  2.9 Southern Utah           
 87 35   1 12.3  5.7 Lehigh                   206 15  -3  9.9  3.2 Marist                  
 88 20   1 14.0  4.5 Houston                  207 20  -3 11.6  1.9 Idaho State             
 89 44   1 13.1  5.1 North Dakota State       208 12  -3 10.7  2.6 Tennessee Tech          
 90 23   1 13.3  4.9 Colorado State           209 52  -3 10.3  2.9 Norfolk State           
 91 14   1 12.3  5.6 Southern Mississippi     210 40  -3  8.7  4.1 Alabama State           
 92 14   1 14.3  4.0 Nevada - Reno            211 12  -3 11.4  2.0 Northwestern State      
 93 34   1 14.5  3.9 Brown                    212 30  -3 11.1  2.2 Tennessee State         
 94 42   1 12.2  5.5 Iowa State               213 11  -3  9.6  3.2 Charleston Southern     
 95 37   1 12.4  5.3 Princeton                214 18  -3 10.4  2.6 Howard                  
 96 39   1 12.5  5.3 Mississippi              215 49  -3  9.1  3.6 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 97 13   1 12.8  5.0 Hofstra                  216 11  -3  9.8  2.9 Southeast Louisiana     
 98 13   1 13.2  4.6 Southern Illinois        217 17  -3  9.2  3.4 Iona                    
 99 26   1 12.6  5.0 Wyoming                  218 28  -3  8.8  3.7 Alcorn State            
100 44   1 13.4  4.5 Western Michigan         219  9  -4 11.4  1.5 Virginia Military       
101 51   1 11.7  5.7 Syracuse                 220 14  -4 11.4  1.5 Sacred Heart            
102 13   1 13.2  4.6 Wofford                  221 69  -4  9.3  3.1 Austin Peay             
103 17   1 14.8  3.3 Central Michigan         222 14  -4  9.9  2.6 Florida A&M             
104 64   1 13.2  4.6 Northwestern             223 37  -4  9.8  2.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
105 50   1 13.6  4.3 San Diego State          224  8  -4  9.2  2.9 Stephen F. Austin       
106 28   1 12.4  5.0 Colgate                  225  8  -4  9.3  2.8 Indiana State           
107 42   1 13.8  4.0 Minnesota                226 14  -4  8.7  3.2 Mississippi Valley State
108 53   0 13.4  4.2 South Dakota State       227 18  -4 10.2  1.9 Samford                 
109 20   0 13.3  4.2 Marshall                 228  7  -4  8.3  3.3 Northern Colorado       
110 43   0 12.1  5.0 Nevada - Las Vegas       229  7  -5  9.8  2.0 Jacksonville            
111 42   0 12.2  4.8 Duke                     230  7  -5  9.5  1.8 Southeast Missouri State
112 15   0 13.8  3.6 Georgia Southern         231  6  -5  9.3  2.0 Valparaiso              
113 40   0 14.0  3.5 Toledo                   232 15  -5  8.4  2.5 North Carolina A&T      
114 13   0 11.9  5.0 Montana                  233  8  -6  8.5  2.2 Butler                  
115 65   0 14.4  3.1 San Diego                234  5  -6 10.4  0.7 Murray State            
116 28   0 13.0  4.1 Elon                     235 11  -6  8.7  1.7 Texas Southern          
117 68   0 12.8  4.2 Dayton                   236  4  -7  7.0  2.2 La Salle                
118 15   0 13.9  3.4 Texas - El Paso          237  3  -9  5.9  1.6 Savannah State          
119 37   0 11.9  4.9 Baylor                  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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