prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 8 Louisville 73 61.5, 225 Murray State 10 2.9
88% 2 Southern California 38 51.0, 175 Idaho 10 3.2
87% 49 Cincinnati 59 48.3, 226 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 4.2
87% 38 Hawaii 63 48.7, 213 Northern Colorado 6 6.2
86% 28 Alabama 52 46.9, 214 Western Carolina 6 3.2
86% 22 Boise State 56 48.9, 187 Weber State 7 7.4
86% 3 Florida 49 46.8, 157 Western Kentucky 3 5.0
85% 90 Indiana 55 49.2, 220 Indiana State 7 18.9
84% 23 Rutgers 38 43.7, 166 Buffalo 3 7.4
84% 10 Oklahoma 79 42.9, 171 North Texas 10 3.2
84% 5 Texas 21 43.5, 154 Arkansas State 13 4.9
81% 17 South Carolina 28 40.8, 153 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 10.6
81% 4 Ohio State 38 39.1, 114 Youngstown State 6 6.9
80% 190 Morgan State 47 37.9, 237 Savannah State 7 5.1
80% 87 Fresno State 24 38.1, 208 Sacramento State 3 9.0
80% 54 Southern Mississippi 35 36.5, 189 Tennessee - Martin 13 5.8
80% 30 Pittsburgh 27 38.6, 164 Eastern Michigan 3 7.7
79% 57 Kentucky 50 39.6, 173 Eastern Kentucky 10 14.3
79% 19 Penn State 59 34.3, 168 Florida International 0 2.0
78% 118 Montana 37 34.9, 222 Southern Utah 17 6.7
78% 89 Lafayette 49 35.6, 200 Marist 10 9.9
78% 45 South Florida 28 31.9, 172 Elon 13 3.8
78% 16 Arkansas 46 37.1, 112 Troy State 26 13.1
78% 12 West Virginia 62 40.0, 92 Western Michigan 24 18.1
77% 148 New Mexico State 35 37.7, 221 Southeast Louisiana 14 15.8
77% 56 Navy 30 35.1, 195 Temple 19 11.0
77% 40 Texas A&M 38 33.5, 149 Montana State 7 10.0
76% 6 Virginia Tech 17 30.2, 85 East Carolina 7 5.9
76% 1 Louisiana State 45 31.2, 82 Mississippi State 0 8.6
75% 34 Arizona State 45 34.7, 106 San Jose State 3 16.5
75% 25 Texas Christian 27 32.8, 95 Baylor 0 13.8
74% 115 Ohio 36 30.5, 193 Gardner - Webb 14 10.7
74% 7 Brigham Young 20 29.5, 60 Arizona 7 10.0
72% 180 Bethune - Cookman 31 34.1, 224 Jacksonville 17 18.6
72% 83 Air Force 34 29.8, 159 South Carolina State 3 12.7
71% 31 Missouri 40 32.9, 103 Illinois 34 18.5
70% 41 Miami - Florida 31 30.5, 96 Marshall 3 15.8
70% 29 Oregon 48 37.9, 61 Houston 27 26.4
69% 46 Massachusetts 40 26.7, 113 Holy Cross 30 11.5
69% 24 Texas Tech 49 35.2, 97 Southern Methodist 9 22.8
69% 20 Nebraska 52 28.5, 68 Nevada - Reno 10 13.7
69% 9 Auburn 23 24.8, 47 Kansas State 13 9.0
68% 55 Maryland 31 31.1, 108 Villanova 14 18.3
67% 169 Eastern Illinois 45 26.2, 216 Tennessee Tech 24 13.8
67% 81 Northwestern 27 27.6, 136 Northeastern 0 15.3
65% 69 Michigan State 55 29.6, 100 Alabama - Birmingham 18 19.3
65% 14 Clemson 24 30.0, 39 Florida State 18 19.8
64% 58 Kansas 52 31.9, 77 Central Michigan 7 23.9
64% 35 California - Los Angel 45 23.3, 111 Stanford 17 11.9
64% 27 Wisconsin 42 23.4, 50 Washington State 21 13.0
64% 15 Boston College 38 22.7, 42 Wake Forest 28 11.6
63% 179 The Citadel 35 26.9, 203 Charleston Southern 14 18.9
63% 63 Tulsa 35 26.1, 143 Northeast Louisiana 17 17.0
63% 51 Vanderbilt 41 22.7, 86 Richmond 17 13.6
63% 18 Georgia 35 30.6, 33 Oklahoma State 14 22.9
62% 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 22.4, 178 Utah State 16 15.0
62% 120 Towson 20 23.8, 152 Central Connecticut 10 16.2
62% 84 Maine 21 13.0, 138 Monmouth 14 4.2
62% 62 Connecticut 45 26.4, 133 Duke 14 19.0
62% 36 Iowa 16 23.5, 72 Northern Illinois 3 16.2
61% 13 California 45 25.4, 21 Tennessee 31 19.8
60% 67 Purdue 52 28.0, 110 Toledo 24 23.7
60% 32 Oregon State 24 24.0, 37 Utah 7 19.1
59% 174 Stony Brook 35 21.6, 177 Georgetown 28 17.7
59% 130 Colgate 13 16.5, 132 Albany 11 12.5
59% 76 Wyoming 23 20.0, 78 Virginia 3 15.7
58% 71 Colorado 31 17.1, 91 Colorado State 28 13.4
55% 162 Western Illinois 29 32.6, 155 South Dakota State 26 31.0
53% 107 Delaware 49 27.6, 134 William & Mary 31 26.7
51% 201 Southern 33 28.0, 204 Florida A&M 27 27.6
50% 88 Mississippi 23 19.9, 116 Memphis 21 19.8
49% 124 Akron 22 19.4, 122 Army 14 19.6
48% 230 Prairie View 34 16.9, 231 Texas Southern 14 18.0
48% 197 Grambling 31 23.5, 209 Alcorn State 10 24.2
48% 123 Texas - El Paso 10 24.6, 94 New Mexico 6 25.3
48% 65 Washington 42 19.8, 79 Syracuse 12 20.7
47% 186 Alabama A&M 49 19.3, 202 Tennessee State 23 20.7
45% 219 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 20.4, 199 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 9 22.5
43% 161 Florida Atlantic 27 15.3, 128 Middle Tennessee State 14 18.5
42% 170 Delaware State 23 26.4, 151 Coastal Carolina 18 29.3
42% 158 Bucknell 28 16.7, 156 Duquesne 19 20.3
40% 185 Texas State - San Marc 38 17.2, 146 California Poly 35 22.5
40% 102 North Carolina 37 21.6, 53 James Madison 14 26.2
39% 207 Alabama State 24 15.5, 163 Jacksonville State 19 21.8
39% 188 McNeese State 35 17.7, 150 Portland State 12 24.4
39% 99 Central Florida 25 15.5, 73 North Carolina State 23 22.6
38% 205 Dayton 23 15.8, 184 Robert Morris 12 22.9
38% 121 Miami - Ohio 14 23.8, 98 Ball State 13 30.3
37% 167 Fordham 27 16.2, 147 Rhode Island 23 24.9
35% 44 Georgia Tech 33 19.7, 26 Notre Dame 3 29.9
34% 142 Kent State 23 10.1, 80 Iowa State 14 22.7
30% 182 Drake 27 10.2, 117 Illinois State 24 26.4
28% 70 Appalachian State 34 14.3, 11 Michigan 32 31.1
24% 210 Nicholls State 16 13.3, 135 Rice 14 33.7
23% 137 Bowling Green 32 17.0, 43 Minnesota 31 37.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
21 0.86 34 1.10 25 1.16 14 1.19 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 95 71 65.2 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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