prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 13 Kansas 62 57.6, 216 Southeast Louisiana 0 2.8
88% 7 Louisville 58 53.2, 164 Middle Tennessee State 42 10.2
86% 27 Hawaii 45 53.8, 179 Louisiana Tech 44 23.7
86% 6 Georgia Tech 69 45.5, 221 Samford 14 -0.9
85% 4 Florida 59 44.1, 99 Troy State 31 10.5
83% 88 San Diego 38 41.9, 210 Marist 17 13.3
82% 98 Wofford 52 38.7, 218 Charleston Southern 24 8.9
82% 81 Southern Methodist 45 43.9, 224 North Texas 31 7.1
82% 51 Maryland 26 39.9, 214 Florida International 10 7.3
82% 5 West Virginia 48 48.5, 132 Marshall 23 20.6
81% 42 Florida State 34 41.1, 163 Alabama - Birmingham 24 12.2
81% 23 Clemson 49 39.2, 135 Northeast Louisiana 26 10.4
80% 43 Pittsburgh 34 36.1, 181 Grambling 10 5.3
79% 44 Wyoming 32 32.4, 178 Utah State 18 3.3
79% 21 Boston College 37 43.3, 107 North Carolina State 17 19.4
79% 8 Ohio State 20 34.2, 84 Akron 2 6.7
79% 2 Penn State 31 33.3, 90 Notre Dame 10 2.3
78% 168 Illinois State 43 46.4, 228 Murray State 17 25.0
78% 63 Lafayette 28 39.2, 189 Georgetown 7 18.6
78% 58 Purdue 52 40.3, 154 Eastern Illinois 6 19.1
78% 54 Kansas State 34 34.5, 158 San Jose State 14 9.6
77% 146 William & Mary 63 39.7, 227 Virginia Military 16 22.1
77% 68 North Dakota State 28 31.9, 184 Stephen F. Austin 19 5.7
77% 50 Arizona 45 31.3, 157 Northern Arizona 24 7.4
77% 16 Wisconsin 20 38.7, 120 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 17.8
76% 26 Rutgers 41 30.4, 83 Navy 24 10.7
76% 12 Arizona State 33 34.3, 61 Colorado 14 14.5
76% 11 California 34 44.5, 95 Colorado State 28 25.9
75% 37 Northwestern 36 27.2, 129 Nevada - Reno 31 5.2
75% 33 Texas A&M 47 29.3, 94 Fresno State 45 10.2
75% 1 Oklahoma 51 34.5, 24 Miami - Florida 13 13.5
74% 172 Alabama State 21 32.8, 233 Texas Southern 10 14.9
72% 106 Youngstown State 23 33.7, 165 South Dakota State 17 19.4
72% 35 Texas Tech 45 27.1, 92 Texas - El Paso 31 8.1
72% 28 Michigan State 28 41.3, 66 Bowling Green 17 28.0
71% 3 Nebraska 20 35.9, 48 Wake Forest 17 21.3
70% 195 Sacred Heart 54 28.4, 230 La Salle 14 12.2
70% 89 Illinois 21 37.8, 142 Western Illinois 0 26.6
70% 75 Washington State 45 32.4, 138 San Diego State 17 18.5
70% 41 Kentucky 56 28.8, 82 Kent State 20 14.6
70% 39 Tennessee 39 32.9, 77 Southern Mississippi 19 19.5
70% 29 Iowa 35 20.2, 91 Syracuse 0 2.7
68% 196 Gardner - Webb 27 31.4, 222 Jacksonville 6 19.5
68% 65 Oklahoma State 42 28.8, 110 Florida Atlantic 6 15.9
67% 143 Baylor 42 26.3, 187 Rice 17 13.7
67% 118 Hampton 31 24.4, 201 Howard 24 10.8
66% 148 Delaware State 20 28.4, 206 Florida A&M 7 18.4
66% 136 California - Davis 26 26.9, 200 Portland State 17 16.2
66% 103 Towson 28 24.1, 180 Morgan State 21 12.9
65% 219 Prairie View 22 20.0, 235 North Carolina A&T 7 8.8
65% 64 Indiana 37 33.3, 131 Western Michigan 27 24.0
64% 144 Idaho 20 30.7, 169 California Poly 13 22.1
64% 49 Massachusetts 35 31.0, 108 Colgate 17 22.0
63% 147 Army 14 26.4, 173 Rhode Island 7 18.2
63% 119 Richmond 49 20.6, 188 Northeastern 14 11.8
63% 69 Connecticut 38 21.0, 79 Maine 0 13.1
63% 18 Oregon 39 37.0, 55 Michigan 7 30.7
62% 198 Eastern Kentucky 45 24.5, 209 Western Carolina 21 17.8
62% 112 New Mexico 44 22.2, 145 New Mexico State 34 14.8
61% 40 Missouri 38 30.7, 73 Mississippi 25 25.3
60% 190 Jacksonville State 33 24.7, 194 Tennessee - Chattanoog 19 20.6
60% 116 Hofstra 32 24.7, 133 Furman 17 19.5
60% 14 Louisiana State 48 15.3, 25 Virginia Tech 7 10.0
59% 186 Southern 23 23.3, 199 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 20.1
59% 122 Virginia 24 13.4, 121 Duke 13 9.2
54% 205 Tennessee State 16 27.1, 211 Jackson State 13 25.6
51% 213 Iona 17 13.0, 204 Wagner 14 12.5
51% 137 Ball State 38 15.5, 156 Eastern Michigan 16 14.9
51% 101 Minnesota 41 23.7, 80 Miami - Ohio 35 23.3
50% 36 Cincinnati 34 20.2, 20 Oregon State 3 20.1
49% 62 East Carolina 34 22.0, 47 North Carolina 31 22.3
45% 115 Northern Iowa 24 20.4, 125 Iowa State 13 22.2
44% 56 Air Force 20 14.5, 59 Utah 12 17.1
43% 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 14.9, 217 Alcorn State 3 17.7
43% 183 South Carolina State 24 17.0, 185 Bethune - Cookman 13 19.9
43% 151 Mississippi State 38 7.7, 141 Tulane 17 11.5
42% 139 Albany 23 14.4, 134 Fordham 20 17.6
41% 105 Ohio 31 17.4, 104 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 21.1
41% 32 Alabama 24 26.5, 34 Vanderbilt 10 30.0
40% 231 Austin Peay 32 21.3, 229 Indiana State 17 25.4
40% 226 Morehead State 21 27.0, 225 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 31.0
40% 174 Buffalo 42 17.4, 170 Temple 7 22.0
40% 161 Central Michigan 52 24.0, 111 Toledo 31 28.4
40% 46 California - Los Angel 27 21.6, 19 Brigham Young 17 25.8
39% 102 Southern Illinois 34 11.6, 86 Northern Illinois 31 18.0
39% 38 Texas 34 11.1, 9 Texas Christian 13 17.3
37% 114 James Madison 41 21.8, 60 New Hampshire 24 29.6
37% 53 Washington 24 20.2, 17 Boise State 10 27.9
32% 162 Stony Brook 48 22.8, 117 Bucknell 20 34.2
32% 113 Villanova 30 19.0, 74 Lehigh 20 30.7
28% 45 South Carolina 16 11.8, 10 Georgia 12 27.6
27% 203 Robert Morris 20 6.4, 130 Monmouth 17 25.1
25% 72 South Florida 26 8.6, 15 Auburn 23 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.75 31 1.11 31 1.20 11 1.20 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 93 70 63.9 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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