2007 Week 4 (20-22 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  41 Hawaii                  66 54.2,   211 Charleston Southern     10 13.8
 92%   8 Texas                   58 53.9,   185 Rice                    14  8.5
 92%   6 Kansas                  55 46.1,   168 Florida International    3  4.9
 91%  12 Cincinnati              40 38.4,   117 Marshall                14 10.0
 91%   2 Florida                 30 42.7,    84 Mississippi             24 14.2
 90% 133 Tulane                  35 31.6,   224 Southeast Louisiana     27  4.9
 90% 121 Texas - El Paso         52 44.0,   232 Texas Southern          12  6.3
 90%  54 Lehigh                  37 47.7,   215 Virginia Military        6  7.0
 90%  15 Boston College          37 35.4,   127 Army                    17  5.4
 89%   5 Ohio State              58 27.8,    77 Northwestern             7  4.8
 88% 139 Northern Arizona        34 44.4,   227 Northern Colorado       14 15.8
 88% 118 Montana State           21 35.8,   218 Weber State              5 12.4
 88%  86 New Mexico              58 39.6,   210 Sacramento State         0  7.1
 88%   7 Nebraska                41 40.6,    97 Ball State              40 14.2
 88%   4 Southern California     47 46.7,    56 Washington State        14 20.7
 87%   1 Louisiana State         28 29.4,    24 South Carolina          16  6.4
 86% 194 Alabama State           28 17.6,   228 Alcorn State            25  3.1
 86%  48 Texas Christian         21 35.0,   150 Southern Methodist       7 12.7
 86%  47 Mississippi State       31 35.2,   195 Gardner - Webb          15  3.6
 86%  36 Virginia Tech           44 37.8,   154 William & Mary           3 12.8
 86%  31 Missouri                38 44.6,   144 Illinois State          17 19.9
 86%  10 West Virginia           48 37.7,    90 East Carolina            7 15.8
 85% 120 Southern Illinois       58 29.3,   205 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    3  7.9
 85%  44 Auburn                  55 39.6,   142 New Mexico State        20 18.3
 85%  37 Massachusetts           38 28.5,   171 Maine                    7  8.6
 84%  98 James Madison           45 40.0,   177 Coastal Carolina        10 22.1
 84%  85 Bowling Green           48 25.8,   162 Temple                  35  7.9
 84%  73 Holy Cross              55 37.9,   176 Georgetown               0 17.0
 82% 155 Eastern Michigan        38 28.3,   212 Howard                  15  9.1
 82%  25 Michigan State          31 29.6,   132 Notre Dame              14 10.6
 80% 101 McNeese State           41 27.4,   201 Southern Utah           20 11.9
 80%  75 Hofstra                 37 29.3,   175 Rhode Island            24 15.3
 80%  23 California              45 31.6,    63 Arizona                 27 17.1
 78%  70 New Hampshire           52 47.9,   164 Dartmouth               31 29.4
 78%   3 Oklahoma                62 48.3,    38 Tulsa                   21 31.9
 77% 219 Tennessee Tech          48 40.7,   233 Murray State            24 28.9
 77% 157 Florida Atlantic        30 36.1,   213 North Texas             20 23.3
 77% 138 San Diego State         52 30.1,   189 Portland State          17 17.2
 76% 197 Eastern Illinois        54 27.2,   230 Indiana State           20 16.2
 76% 130 Eastern Washington      34 43.4,   214 Idaho State              7 27.4
 76%  58 Central Florida         56 34.2,   105 Memphis                 20 22.6
 75%  32 Purdue                  45 43.5,   103 Minnesota               31 34.4
 74%  64 Troy State              48 34.2,   149 Louisiana - Lafayette   31 23.6
 74%  51 South Florida           37 33.2,    82 North Carolina          10 23.7
 73% 136 Elon                    42 32.4,   179 Liberty                 14 20.8
 72%   9 Oregon                  55 28.5,    53 Stanford                31 19.0
 71% 183 Columbia                31 22.5,   207 Marist                   7 11.2
 71%  22 Clemson                 42 28.3,    61 North Carolina State    20 20.7
 69% 145 Western Michigan        51 28.2,   166 Central Connecticut     14 21.1
 68% 114 Richmond                45 23.6,   173 Bucknell                14 17.3
 68%  71 Harvard                 24 31.8,   108 Brown                   17 21.9
 67%  91 Villanova               34 20.8,   107 Pennsylvania            14 12.9
 67%  50 Tennessee               48 32.9,    66 Arkansas State          27 24.9
 66%  62 Delaware                27 26.9,   125 Towson                   7 20.6
 65%  35 Wisconsin               17 22.0,    42 Iowa                    13 16.4
 64% 222 Samford                 26 30.6,   231 Southeast Missouri Sta  21 24.3
 64% 192 Southern                41 23.6,   200 Tennessee State         34 18.5
 64% 184 Robert Morris            9 15.6,   216 Morehead State           8 11.0
 64%  88 Colorado                42 17.9,    95 Miami - Ohio             0 13.2
 63%  83 Houston                 38 32.1,    94 Colorado State          27 26.7
 63%  57 Wyoming                 34 23.6,   111 Ohio                    33 19.6
 62% 169 Duquesne                30 26.9,   199 Sacred Heart            23 22.1
 62% 159 South Dakota State      38 34.5,   158 Texas State - San Marc   3 31.2
 62% 122 Montana                 35 21.1,   116 Albany                  14 17.8
 62%  27 Arizona State           44 25.8,    26 Oregon State            32 21.8
 62%  14 Michigan                14 22.8,    18 Penn State               9 18.4
 61% 182 Stony Brook             21 25.1,   180 Monmouth                15 22.0
 61% 170 Hampton                 24 27.2,   167 Morgan State            17 24.0
 60% 161 California - Davis      28 24.2,   160 Northeastern            10 21.6
 60%  96 Navy                    46 28.3,    92 Duke                    43 25.6
 60%  81 Oklahoma State          49 29.6,    72 Texas Tech              45 27.0
 60%  55 Wake Forest             31 17.6,    49 Maryland                24 15.2
 59% 208 Jackson State           50 17.0,   220 Mississippi Valley Sta  16 15.1
 52% 106 Baylor                  34 24.4,   129 Buffalo                 21 24.0

 47% 110 Akron                   27 21.5,    87 Kent State              20 22.1
 46%  89 Northern Iowa           45 18.5,   102 Drake                    7 19.3
 45% 141 Toledo                  36 22.8,   113 Iowa State              35 23.7
 45%  52 Brigham Young           31 28.0,    28 Air Force                6 29.2
 41% 115 North Dakota State      44 32.1,   126 Central Michigan        14 34.1
 41%  99 Yale                    51 18.0,    59 Cornell                 12 21.4
 40%  19 Kentucky                42 39.4,    21 Arkansas                29 41.8
 39% 188 Eastern Kentucky        31 19.6,   186 Jacksonville State      20 22.7
 39% 178 Grambling               31 23.7,   146 Alabama A&M              6 27.2
 39% 131 Northern Illinois       42 20.8,   134 Idaho                   35 23.9
 38% 124 Western Kentucky        20 18.7,   119 Middle Tennessee State  17 22.8
 37%  78 Illinois                27 23.0,    69 Indiana                 14 27.6
 37%  76 California - Los Angel  44 18.7,    34 Washington              31 22.6
 37%  68 Princeton               20 16.1,    60 Lafayette               14 20.2
 37%  46 Connecticut             34 16.1,    43 Pittsburgh              14 20.2
 36% 226 Norfolk State           38 19.5,   206 Bethune - Cookman       31 24.8
 33% 174 Western Illinois        34 14.1,   165 Stephen F. Austin       13 19.5
 33%  80 Virginia                28 12.8,    30 Georgia Tech            23 18.9
 32% 163 Dayton                  31 19.2,   143 Fordham                 24 25.6
 30% 217 Austin Peay             17 20.3,   181 Tennessee - Martin      14 29.2
 28%  67 Miami - Florida         34 20.2,    17 Texas A&M               17 30.0
 26%  40 Georgia                 26 17.3,    16 Alabama                 23 28.1
 21% 193 San Jose State          23 11.3,   153 Utah State              20 23.5
 21% 140 Wofford                 42 25.8,    29 Appalachian State       31 42.7
 20% 104 Nevada - Las Vegas      27  8.1,    13 Utah                     0 25.5
 17% 202 Tennessee - Chattanoog  45 18.9,   123 Georgia Southern        38 39.2
  9% 147 Syracuse                38 15.4,    20 Louisville              35 45.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.53  36 1.00  23 1.03  24 1.11   8 0.96   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101  74  74.1 1.00

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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