prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 195 Gardner - Webb 66 38.3, 237 Savannah State 0 7.3
92% 73 Mississippi 38 48.3, 232 Northwestern State 31 3.5
92% 7 Auburn 35 60.8, 227 Tennessee Tech 3 2.3
90% 120 Youngstown State 40 37.2, 229 Indiana State 7 11.7
90% 21 Boise State 42 39.9, 130 San Jose State 7 13.6
89% 188 Wagner 28 32.2, 236 La Salle 0 5.2
89% 144 Dayton 61 40.5, 230 Butler 0 12.1
89% 43 Tennessee 59 49.1, 178 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 20.2
87% 79 Fresno State 38 36.3, 171 Utah State 27 15.0
85% 101 Montana 34 47.4, 210 Portland State 31 19.4
84% 164 Eastern Washington 17 31.6, 225 Northern Colorado 7 12.0
84% 126 McNeese State 49 31.5, 214 Stephen F. Austin 20 13.7
84% 125 Albany 45 20.9, 193 Robert Morris 17 4.4
84% 2 Ohio State 38 24.8, 37 Wisconsin 17 8.2
83% 10 Clemson 47 35.1, 98 Duke 10 16.4
82% 127 San Diego 52 40.2, 197 Davidson 49 23.1
82% 72 Houston 38 37.1, 133 Southern Methodist 28 21.0
82% 70 Air Force 30 28.0, 137 Army 10 11.4
82% 30 Brigham Young 35 34.2, 102 Colorado State 16 15.3
82% 4 Kansas 76 30.2, 48 Nebraska 39 13.9
80% 51 Pittsburgh 20 22.8, 96 Syracuse 17 9.8
80% 35 Yale 17 34.3, 94 Brown 7 18.3
79% 192 Southern 56 35.9, 234 Texas Southern 7 20.6
79% 62 Harvard 27 28.0, 152 Columbia 12 14.1
78% 185 Texas State - San Marc 45 33.1, 218 Southeast Louisiana 31 19.2
78% 169 Arkansas State 27 22.5, 202 Florida International 24 10.3
78% 9 Florida 49 36.3, 38 Vanderbilt 22 22.4
78% 8 Oklahoma 42 31.1, 39 Texas A&M 14 16.9
77% 149 Grambling 21 26.8, 207 Alabama State 7 15.6
77% 44 Texas Tech 38 33.1, 123 Baylor 7 21.2
77% 23 California 20 35.9, 74 Washington State 17 22.5
76% 184 Central Connecticut 49 38.3, 215 Sacred Heart 33 25.4
76% 118 Ohio 23 30.9, 157 Temple 7 19.5
76% 78 Central Florida 47 36.3, 119 Marshall 13 25.0
76% 77 Appalachian State 45 36.1, 158 The Citadel 24 24.5
76% 11 Georgia 44 25.5, 49 Troy State 34 13.5
75% 176 Jacksonville State 24 35.8, 221 Samford 12 25.7
75% 99 Hofstra 38 35.4, 151 William & Mary 14 23.0
75% 88 North Dakota State 54 28.1, 139 Illinois State 28 16.9
75% 16 Penn State 26 31.6, 40 Purdue 19 21.6
74% 220 Austin Peay 34 25.4, 235 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 16.0
74% 86 Nevada - Reno 40 42.7, 165 New Mexico State 38 33.1
73% 212 Florida A&M 24 24.8, 228 North Carolina A&T 21 16.6
73% 50 Arizona 34 27.4, 85 California - Los Angel 27 17.5
72% 160 Hampton 31 27.6, 205 Bethune - Cookman 24 19.5
72% 116 Lafayette 34 23.7, 146 Bucknell 7 15.6
72% 97 Miami - Ohio 31 22.6, 129 Buffalo 28 15.2
71% 140 Liberty 37 37.1, 166 Coastal Carolina 24 28.2
71% 54 Richmond 35 27.6, 80 Villanova 27 19.5
70% 153 California Poly 28 31.3, 201 Southern Utah 21 23.3
70% 15 Southern California 24 22.8, 31 Oregon State 3 15.8
69% 81 East Carolina 56 33.8, 135 Memphis 40 26.7
68% 226 Tennessee State 42 39.0, 231 Murray State 28 32.0
68% 183 Weber State 52 36.9, 208 Idaho State 37 26.4
68% 177 Monmouth 47 27.6, 217 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 19.9
68% 58 Delaware 37 30.9, 76 James Madison 34 23.7
68% 53 Illinois 44 29.0, 106 Minnesota 17 22.4
67% 132 Bowling Green 44 30.8, 150 Akron 20 24.5
67% 89 Toledo 52 32.6, 122 Eastern Michigan 28 23.0
67% 84 Tulsa 49 33.7, 143 Tulane 25 27.3
67% 18 Michigan 28 32.1, 66 Michigan State 24 26.0
67% 1 Louisiana State 41 25.8, 19 Alabama 34 19.7
64% 20 Arkansas 48 23.8, 27 South Carolina 36 18.2
63% 219 Alcorn State 17 19.1, 222 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 14.5
63% 162 California - Davis 31 22.8, 200 Sacramento State 26 18.6
63% 5 Oregon 35 28.6, 6 Arizona State 23 24.2
62% 223 Valparaiso 29 23.8, 233 Jacksonville 27 20.1
62% 113 Southern Mississippi 37 19.7, 154 Alabama - Birmingham 7 16.5
62% 25 Connecticut 38 20.1, 24 Rutgers 19 16.4
60% 148 Maine 16 13.9, 138 Towson 13 12.1
60% 131 Louisiana Tech 28 23.4, 167 Idaho 16 20.8
60% 108 Pennsylvania 7 25.7, 104 Princeton 0 23.0
60% 17 Missouri 55 29.1, 41 Colorado 10 26.7
59% 69 Iowa 28 21.0, 91 Northwestern 17 18.7
57% 182 Sam Houston State 16 20.3, 168 Nicholls State 13 19.0
56% 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 14.2, 203 Prairie View 19 13.2
54% 121 Middle Tennessee State 43 24.8, 145 Northeast Louisiana 40 24.0
54% 55 Texas Christian 37 24.2, 46 New Mexico 0 23.2
53% 179 South Carolina State 59 21.0, 198 Howard 21 20.3
53% 170 Northern Arizona 29 21.8, 190 Montana State 14 21.1
48% 114 Southern Illinois 10 22.2, 134 Western Illinois 9 22.5
48% 92 Indiana 38 28.8, 75 Ball State 20 29.2
48% 56 Virginia 17 20.9, 33 Wake Forest 16 21.4
47% 22 Texas 38 22.9, 34 Oklahoma State 35 23.6
46% 128 Furman 52 25.4, 107 Elon 49 26.2
43% 136 Dartmouth 59 24.3, 112 Cornell 31 25.8
42% 82 Navy 46 26.2, 87 Notre Dame 44 28.4
40% 155 Western Kentucky 28 18.3, 161 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 20.9
40% 90 North Carolina 16 20.1, 67 Maryland 13 22.5
39% 105 Georgia Southern 38 29.2, 109 Wofford 35 32.2
39% 100 San Diego State 27 20.5, 71 Wyoming 24 23.8
39% 26 Virginia Tech 27 13.7, 32 Georgia Tech 3 16.2
38% 224 Marist 37 13.5, 199 Georgetown 34 17.5
38% 216 Charleston Southern 37 25.1, 213 Virginia Military 28 29.4
38% 95 Colgate 21 19.0, 52 Lehigh 7 23.0
38% 65 Washington 27 24.9, 59 Stanford 9 28.4
38% 57 North Carolina State 19 18.8, 61 Miami - Florida 16 22.4
37% 206 Morehead State 33 19.3, 174 Drake 0 23.7
34% 159 Rice 56 31.5, 103 Texas - El Paso 48 37.4
33% 196 Jackson State 43 17.2, 180 Alabama A&M 40 24.5
32% 115 Fordham 24 20.1, 60 Holy Cross 21 27.2
29% 28 Cincinnati 38 17.2, 12 South Florida 33 25.1
28% 209 Norfolk State 24 17.3, 186 Morgan State 16 27.7
25% 42 Florida State 27 15.5, 13 Boston College 17 25.3
24% 142 Rhode Island 12 19.3, 64 Massachusetts 6 30.7
21% 93 Iowa State 31 20.1, 14 Kansas State 20 34.4
18% 156 Northeastern 31 18.7, 63 New Hampshire 13 40.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.95 34 0.96 35 1.14 17 1.11 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 80 75.8 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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