2007 Week 11 (6-10 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%   5 Oklahoma                52 42.8,   121 Baylor                  21  8.5
 91% 162 Duquesne                51 35.9,   236 La Salle                 8  3.3
 91%  85 Northern Iowa           68 37.6,   229 Indiana State           14  2.9
 91%   3 Louisiana State         58 47.8,   141 Louisiana Tech          10  7.3
 90%  68 Appalachian State       79 46.2,   198 Western Carolina        35 18.5
 90%  13 Penn State              31 38.0,   163 Temple                   0  8.6
 88% 140 Liberty                 73 41.4,   225 Virginia Military       34 17.5
 88%  19 Boise State             52 42.7,   161 Utah State               0 18.5
 86% 120 South Dakota State      52 36.3,   200 Southern Utah           27 16.2
 86%  81 Navy                    74 53.4,   207 North Texas             62 31.9
 84%  97 Colgate                 45 35.6,   205 Georgetown              12 16.8
 82%  60 Central Florida         45 33.1,   167 Alabama - Birmingham    31 16.9
 81% 194 Tennessee - Martin      76 37.7,   231 Murray State            34 21.3
 81% 149 McNeese State           27 39.9,   219 Northwestern State      21 19.9
 80% 169 Hampton                 30 33.5,   214 Florida A&M             15 18.1
 80%  32 Hawaii                  37 44.3,    88 Fresno State            30 29.9
 80%  10 Missouri                40 34.8,    57 Texas A&M               26 18.8
 79% 119 Dayton                  34 31.5,   210 Drake                   27 13.9
 79% 113 Montana                 27 40.7,   218 Idaho State             14 21.8
 79%  36 Rutgers                 41 30.7,   137 Army                     6 14.1
 79%   9 Arizona State           24 31.8,    79 California - Los Angel  20 18.5
 78%  49 Iowa                    21 28.2,   100 Minnesota               16 16.0
 78%   8 Virginia Tech           40 16.9,    28 Florida State           21  6.7
 77% 168 South Carolina State    28 24.9,   204 Morgan State            21 14.1
 77%  62 Harvard                 23 19.8,   104 Pennsylvania             7  8.7
 77%  22 South Florida           41 27.1,    98 Syracuse                10 15.4
 76% 186 Davidson                44 40.0,   223 Valparaiso               6 26.6
 76%  73 James Madison           55 37.4,   157 William & Mary          34 26.4
 76%  16 Clemson                 44 26.7,    43 Wake Forest             10 16.1
 75%   7 West Virginia           38 36.1,    27 Louisville              31 23.6
 75%   2 Florida                 51 36.1,    42 South Carolina          31 23.2
 74% 187 Delaware State          28 21.1,   201 Norfolk State           21 13.1
 74% 114 Southern Illinois       34 34.7,   153 Illinois State          24 24.3
 74%  94 Lehigh                  38 23.2,   160 Bucknell                10 14.7
 74%  41 Utah                    50 24.6,    77 Wyoming                  0 15.4
 73% 177 Sam Houston State       20 28.1,   221 Southeast Louisiana     16 19.6
 73% 166 Eastern Kentucky        28 29.9,   217 Austin Peay             14 20.4
 72% 196 Robert Morris           41 29.6,   220 Sacred Heart            31 20.1
 72% 132 Youngstown State        31 19.1,   152 Western Illinois        24 11.7
 72%   1 Kansas                  43 38.8,    40 Oklahoma State          28 26.4
 71% 134 San Jose State          51 26.5,   158 New Mexico State        17 18.6
 71%  90 Villanova               14 28.7,   156 Towson                  12 20.4
 71%  74 North Dakota State      31 32.4,   142 California Poly         28 23.6
 71%  51 North Carolina State    31 22.2,    78 North Carolina          27 15.1
 70% 115 Wofford                 42 32.1,   172 Tennessee - Chattanoog  16 24.5
 69% 118 Albany                  21 23.3,   180 Monmouth                 3 16.0
 69%  50 Yale                    27 18.7,   109 Princeton                6 11.1
 67% 232 Jacksonville            24 25.7,   235 Butler                  16 18.9
 67%  18 Texas                   59 27.0,    26 Texas Tech              43 20.9
 66%  64 Massachusetts           27 31.4,    80 New Hampshire            7 25.3
 64% 188 Alabama A&M             24 24.0,   222 Alcorn State            20 18.7
 64% 173 Nicholls State          52 24.5,   184 Texas State - San Marc  28 19.4
 64%  91 Brown                   56 37.7,   107 Dartmouth               35 32.3
 63%  95 New Mexico              26 22.6,   101 Colorado State          23 18.1
 63%  89 Troy State              21 26.1,   144 Western Kentucky        17 20.6
 63%  63 Washington State        33 21.7,    69 Stanford                17 17.4
 63%  34 Oregon State            29 24.6,    38 Washington              23 19.7
 62% 131 Maine                   35 19.9,   126 Rhode Island             0 16.8
 62% 130 San Diego               27 29.9,   171 Morehead State          14 25.4
 61% 176 Stony Brook             34 32.4,   170 Central Connecticut      7 29.6
 61% 147 Northeast Louisiana     28 27.3,   146 Grambling               14 24.1
 61% 143 Cornell                 34 23.5,   138 Columbia                14 20.7
 61%  71 Tulsa                   56 35.2,    65 Houston                  7 32.0
 61%  23 Cincinnati              27 23.5,    21 Connecticut              3 20.5
 60% 206 Sacramento State        20 18.1,   227 Northern Colorado       17 15.4
 60% 117 Bowling Green           39 30.1,   150 Eastern Michigan        32 27.3
 60%  61 Georgia Tech            41 19.1,   103 Duke                    24 16.7
 60%  11 Southern California     24 22.2,    37 California              17 19.7
 59% 139 Florida Atlantic        34 27.1,   133 Arkansas State          31 24.8
 58%  20 Georgia                 45 18.6,    12 Auburn                  20 17.0
 56% 175 Coastal Carolina        17 29.1,   164 Gardner - Webb          14 27.7
 56%  30 Brigham Young           27 22.7,    17 Texas Christian         22 21.5
 56%  29 Kentucky                27 29.2,    45 Vanderbilt              20 28.1
 55%  58 Air Force               41 18.4,    84 Notre Dame              24 17.2
 53% 216 Tennessee State         38 30.4,   228 Samford                 28 29.7
 53%  25 Tennessee               34 35.4,    15 Arkansas                13 34.8
 51% 111 Northeastern            35 17.1,    92 Hofstra                 31 16.9
 50% 209 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   23 18.9,   199 Southern                21 18.8

 47% 215 Alabama State           20 15.5,   224 Mississippi Valley Sta  16 16.1
 47%  52 Maryland                42 19.7,    31 Boston College          35 20.3
 46%  99 Northwestern            31 28.7,    72 Indiana                 28 29.6
 44% 151 Tulane                  34 31.9,   122 Texas - El Paso         19 33.2
 44%  96 San Diego State         38 19.8,   108 Nevada - Las Vegas      30 21.1
 42%  59 Virginia                48 18.9,    70 Miami - Florida          0 20.5
 40% 154 The Citadel             42 28.8,   123 Elon                    31 31.5
 40%  82 Iowa State              31 17.6,    46 Colorado                28 19.9
 40%  67 Nebraska                73 36.2,    35 Kansas State            31 39.5
 39% 191 Montana State           50 22.9,   189 Portland State          36 26.7
 39% 159 Akron                   48 23.1,   124 Ohio                    37 25.8
 39%  39 Wisconsin               37 21.8,    14 Michigan                21 25.2
 38% 213 Prairie View            30 18.7,   185 Jackson State           27 22.3
 37%  54 Richmond                62 26.8,    47 Delaware                56 31.3
 36% 212 Bethune - Cookman       37 21.9,   208 Howard                  26 26.9
 36% 181 Northern Illinois       27 20.4,   129 Kent State              20 25.6
 36% 135 Rice                    43 33.3,   128 Southern Methodist      42 38.2
 35% 112 Central Michigan        34 29.4,   102 Western Michigan        31 35.0
 34%  66 Mississippi State       17 18.3,    24 Alabama                 12 24.3
 33% 125 Furman                  24 31.7,   105 Georgia Southern        22 38.8
 32% 197 Marist                  17 18.0,   183 Iona                    14 26.0
 31% 178 Eastern Washington      52 20.4,   155 Northern Arizona        24 28.1
 29% 195 Eastern Illinois        37 17.1,   179 Jacksonville State      23 24.8
 29%  83 Lafayette               31 17.4,    55 Holy Cross              21 25.7
 28% 148 Marshall                26 26.7,    75 East Carolina            7 35.2
 26%  53 Michigan State          48 26.3,    33 Purdue                  31 35.2
 20% 190 Louisiana - Lafayette   34 18.6,   127 Middle Tennessee State  24 34.9
 20% 145 Memphis                 29 15.4,    76 Southern Mississippi    26 30.3
 16% 226 Saint Francis - Pennsy  23  9.9,   174 Wagner                  20 27.9
 14%  48 Illinois                28  7.1,     6 Ohio State              21 25.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               20 1.16  36 0.91  34 1.18  13 0.82   5 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108  78  75.2 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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