prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 19 Boise State 58 44.2, 175 Idaho 14 6.7
92% 2 Florida 59 56.7, 136 Florida Atlantic 20 18.5
89% 1 Louisiana State 41 38.4, 106 Mississippi 24 10.3
88% 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 32.1, 237 Savannah State 3 8.9
88% 69 Northern Iowa 48 41.0, 207 Southern Utah 10 8.4
88% 39 Appalachian State 37 50.0, 179 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 18.6
88% 16 Virginia Tech 44 27.0, 105 Miami - Florida 14 4.6
88% 3 Kansas 45 38.7, 71 Iowa State 7 13.1
87% 11 Utah 28 30.5, 83 New Mexico 10 8.1
86% 34 Texas Christian 34 32.5, 116 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 12.5
85% 162 South Carolina State 51 31.5, 229 North Carolina A&T 7 9.9
84% 129 Arkansas State 31 42.0, 211 North Texas 27 21.1
84% 57 Richmond 31 44.9, 155 William & Mary 20 24.9
83% 180 Eastern Illinois 33 35.3, 225 Samford 17 18.4
82% 70 James Madison 23 27.6, 139 Towson 13 12.2
81% 153 California Poly 55 32.9, 205 Iona 7 16.5
81% 135 The Citadel 70 46.8, 228 Virginia Military 28 25.4
80% 122 Furman 52 46.3, 222 Western Carolina 21 26.3
79% 182 Delaware State 29 28.2, 220 Howard 13 15.1
79% 164 Eastern Kentucky 38 32.4, 213 Tennessee Tech 24 17.0
79% 46 Connecticut 30 23.1, 85 Syracuse 7 10.7
79% 44 Illinois 41 30.7, 92 Northwestern 22 17.1
79% 35 Brigham Young 35 32.4, 130 Wyoming 10 17.5
79% 32 Tulsa 49 31.9, 128 Army 39 17.0
78% 148 Western Kentucky 52 23.0, 187 Morehead State 12 9.6
77% 81 Navy 35 46.9, 149 Northern Illinois 24 34.2
77% 26 Wisconsin 41 34.8, 95 Minnesota 34 23.3
76% 218 Saint Francis - Pennsy 51 28.2, 236 La Salle 10 16.0
76% 204 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 28.1, 234 Texas Southern 10 16.8
76% 23 Tennessee 25 29.7, 52 Vanderbilt 24 19.6
75% 195 Wagner 41 22.8, 230 Jacksonville 27 13.5
75% 104 Liberty 31 33.9, 181 Gardner - Webb 0 22.0
75% 45 Oklahoma State 45 34.0, 118 Baylor 14 23.5
74% 158 Eastern Washington 38 29.3, 190 Weber State 16 18.2
74% 125 Albany 49 26.3, 196 Central Connecticut 14 14.3
74% 86 Colorado State 42 31.7, 120 Georgia Southern 34 21.9
74% 48 Georgia Tech 27 31.6, 87 North Carolina 25 19.7
74% 38 Rutgers 20 22.6, 60 Pittsburgh 16 14.0
73% 189 Jackson State 31 26.6, 215 Alcorn State 19 17.8
73% 132 Memphis 25 30.8, 160 Alabama - Birmingham 9 21.4
73% 72 Notre Dame 28 24.6, 103 Duke 7 15.3
72% 102 Miami - Ohio 7 29.2, 140 Akron 0 19.9
72% 17 Missouri 49 42.1, 90 Kansas State 32 31.6
71% 221 Austin Peay 23 37.4, 235 Murray State 17 27.6
71% 75 New Hampshire 39 25.9, 110 Maine 14 17.1
70% 99 Southern Illinois 45 30.6, 166 Hampton 27 22.5
70% 73 Holy Cross 27 29.3, 98 Colgate 20 21.3
69% 163 Tennessee - Martin 43 35.3, 212 Tennessee State 38 27.5
69% 82 Brown 30 33.3, 152 Columbia 22 24.9
69% 68 Central Florida 49 37.5, 134 Southern Methodist 20 30.5
68% 138 Elon 38 32.3, 161 Stony Brook 23 24.4
68% 124 Montana 41 20.8, 177 Montana State 20 14.4
68% 67 Air Force 55 29.7, 80 San Diego State 23 22.8
67% 78 Ball State 41 36.4, 93 Toledo 20 30.0
67% 49 Massachusetts 27 23.6, 100 Hofstra 5 17.7
67% 41 Hawaii 28 47.2, 88 Nevada - Reno 26 42.3
66% 197 Portland State 31 33.7, 226 Northern Colorado 21 26.9
66% 33 Arkansas 45 24.2, 66 Mississippi State 31 18.0
65% 97 Pennsylvania 45 21.5, 115 Cornell 9 16.4
64% 15 Georgia 24 33.3, 20 Kentucky 13 27.8
63% 178 Coastal Carolina 41 27.1, 208 Charleston Southern 2 22.5
62% 173 Sam Houston State 29 32.4, 199 Texas State - San Marc 28 28.5
62% 22 South Florida 55 32.3, 21 Louisville 17 28.8
62% 9 Ohio State 14 20.2, 28 Michigan 3 16.8
61% 200 Bethune - Cookman 34 24.9, 217 Florida A&M 7 21.8
60% 214 Northwestern State 31 30.5, 216 Stephen F. Austin 12 27.0
60% 210 Sacramento State 41 25.9, 203 Idaho State 30 22.8
60% 168 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 23.7, 193 Florida International 28 21.3
60% 96 Southern Mississippi 56 27.2, 137 Texas - El Paso 30 24.8
60% 43 Washington 37 29.1, 37 California 23 26.8
59% 108 Bowling Green 31 34.3, 143 Buffalo 17 32.5
59% 51 Florida State 24 25.6, 47 Maryland 16 23.2
59% 36 Oregon State 52 24.7, 59 Washington State 17 22.6
59% 6 West Virginia 28 25.2, 18 Cincinnati 23 23.2
56% 65 Wake Forest 38 21.9, 56 North Carolina State 18 20.6
55% 119 Houston 35 26.6, 109 Marshall 28 25.3
50% 123 Tulane 45 32.8, 144 Rice 31 32.8
50% 121 Princeton 17 26.1, 142 Dartmouth 14 26.1
49% 172 Utah State 35 22.7, 184 New Mexico State 17 22.9
49% 84 Villanova 16 34.9, 64 Delaware 10 35.1
46% 176 Monmouth 31 18.3, 154 Duquesne 20 19.2
45% 202 Prairie View 30 21.7, 186 Alabama A&M 20 22.7
44% 63 Lafayette 21 17.0, 76 Lehigh 17 18.1
41% 74 Indiana 27 29.5, 50 Purdue 24 31.3
40% 112 South Dakota State 29 28.4, 77 North Dakota State 24 31.3
39% 157 Louisiana Tech 27 22.8, 113 San Jose State 23 26.7
38% 165 California - Davis 49 29.5, 126 San Diego 46 33.6
37% 29 Michigan State 35 22.2, 8 Penn State 31 26.9
35% 183 Temple 24 12.9, 147 Kent State 14 17.6
35% 42 Texas Tech 34 28.3, 4 Oklahoma 27 35.6
32% 169 Rhode Island 35 16.1, 111 Northeastern 30 22.9
27% 156 Bucknell 38 15.7, 114 Fordham 24 24.5
24% 31 Boston College 20 19.5, 10 Clemson 17 32.0
23% 58 Harvard 37 6.5, 25 Yale 6 15.7
23% 54 Arizona 34 26.5, 5 Oregon 24 37.6
20% 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 32 17.0, 191 Jacksonville State 25 31.2
20% 223 Southeast Louisiana 17 13.1, 150 Nicholls State 13 28.9
20% 159 Eastern Michigan 48 21.7, 94 Central Michigan 45 36.7
19% 117 Western Michigan 28 13.9, 55 Iowa 19 28.9
18% 127 Northeast Louisiana 21 15.7, 30 Alabama 14 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 1.01 29 1.17 33 1.13 20 0.95 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 77 71.3 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net