2007 Week 14 (29 Nov - 1 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 83%  60 Fresno State            30 40.0,   176 New Mexico State        23 22.4
 81%  66 Appalachian State       38 35.2,   136 Eastern Washington      35 19.3
 80% 100 Nevada - Reno           49 38.9,   160 Louisiana Tech          10 24.3
 80%  27 Brigham Young           48 35.3,   110 San Diego State         27 21.3
 78%   4 Southern California     24 23.6,    24 California - Los Angel   7 10.9
 74%  21 Arizona State           20 33.7,    44 Arizona                 17 24.1
 73%  33 Hawaii                  35 40.2,    54 Washington              28 31.1
 70%  89 Navy                    38 38.8,   138 Army                     3 31.0
 64%   3 Oklahoma                38 32.7,     7 Missouri                17 27.8
 62% 128 Dayton                  42 20.5,   131 Albany                  21 17.3
 61%  36 Louisville              41 29.0,    30 Rutgers                 38 25.8
 60% 200 Florida International   38 28.8,   195 North Texas             19 26.1
 60%   6 Louisiana State         21 36.0,    14 Tennessee               14 33.5
 59%  76 Central Florida         44 37.1,    61 Tulsa                   25 35.2
 59%  75 Richmond                21 27.0,   102 Wofford                 10 24.9
 56%  13 Virginia Tech           30 20.0,    16 Boston College          16 18.8
 54% 111 Central Michigan        35 30.5,   113 Miami - Ohio            10 29.7

 44%  62 Delaware                39 24.9,    77 Northern Iowa           27 26.4
 37%  31 Oregon State            38 18.9,    32 Oregon                  31 23.4
 32%  86 Stanford                20 20.5,    38 California              13 27.0
 30% 105 Southern Illinois       34 20.1,    42 Massachusetts           27 28.1
 22% 134 Florida Atlantic        38 21.2,    64 Troy State              32 36.7
 15%  56 Pittsburgh              13 17.5,     2 West Virginia            9 42.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 1.46   7 0.89   7 1.12   3 0.80   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  23  17  15.7 1.08

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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