prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 19 Missouri 52 66.8, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 8.8
89% 71 Indiana 45 58.2, 235 Murray State 3 13.4
88% 4 Oregon 66 50.7, 141 Utah State 24 6.8
87% 103 Northern Iowa 24 48.9, 237 South Dakota 13 5.9
87% 46 Purdue 42 50.3, 227 Northern Colorado 10 4.1
85% 78 Appalachian State 56 50.9, 234 Jacksonville 7 7.4
85% 44 Florida State 69 47.4, 195 Western Carolina 0 12.7
85% 9 Texas 42 49.6, 159 Texas - El Paso 13 16.8
85% 8 Kentucky 38 48.8, 209 Norfolk State 3 1.5
85% 3 Ohio State 26 41.3, 110 Ohio 14 3.9
84% 77 Arkansas State 83 43.4, 230 Texas Southern 10 4.6
84% 17 Texas Christian 67 41.6, 215 Stephen F. Austin 7 0.4
84% 5 Arizona 41 47.8, 107 Toledo 16 14.2
83% 131 James Madison 56 43.6, 241 North Carolina Central 7 6.4
82% 108 Georgia Southern 34 42.8, 224 Austin Peay 20 14.1
82% 52 Illinois 47 42.4, 177 Eastern Illinois 21 13.4
82% 41 Kansas State 69 37.7, 174 Montana State 10 6.2
82% 28 Colorado 31 42.7, 143 Eastern Washington 24 16.3
82% 25 Iowa 42 37.0, 153 Florida International 0 5.5
82% 1 Florida 26 44.9, 53 Miami - Florida 3 14.0
81% 86 North Dakota State 50 44.6, 205 Central Connecticut 14 17.9
80% 95 Baylor 51 38.6, 208 Northwestern State 6 9.7
80% 29 Clemson 45 38.2, 148 The Citadel 17 8.8
80% 26 Nebraska 35 40.1, 136 San Jose State 12 13.3
79% 14 Georgia 56 40.4, 100 Central Michigan 17 16.7
78% 116 Mississippi State 34 35.1, 206 Southeast Louisiana 10 11.3
78% 87 Lafayette 28 34.4, 210 Marist 6 10.6
78% 34 Virginia Tech 24 34.4, 130 Furman 7 11.1
78% 21 Kansas 29 38.2, 102 Louisiana Tech 0 16.3
78% 20 Alabama 20 32.2, 122 Tulane 6 5.8
77% 97 Hawaii 36 38.5, 186 Weber State 17 17.0
77% 16 Utah 42 34.5, 92 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 13.5
76% 113 Colorado State 23 32.5, 193 Sacramento State 20 12.0
76% 74 Tulsa 56 38.7, 192 North Texas 26 19.2
76% 47 Iowa State 48 27.3, 155 Kent State 28 3.8
76% 2 Oklahoma 52 33.3, 31 Cincinnati 26 12.6
74% 106 Lehigh 19 30.3, 182 Drake 0 11.1
74% 56 Arkansas 28 35.5, 142 Northeast Louisiana 27 18.7
73% 12 Penn State 45 37.4, 50 Oregon State 14 21.8
73% 11 Auburn 27 26.9, 63 Southern Mississippi 13 8.7
72% 151 Wofford 41 34.4, 225 Charleston Southern 23 20.6
72% 85 Louisville 51 29.4, 178 Tennessee Tech 10 7.4
72% 33 Michigan 16 29.6, 98 Miami - Ohio 6 13.6
71% 65 Notre Dame 21 28.2, 123 San Diego State 13 13.1
71% 23 Connecticut 12 24.0, 128 Temple 9 7.3
70% 109 Southern Illinois 37 27.1, 164 Hampton 31 12.2
68% 69 Rice 42 46.1, 139 Memphis 35 37.4
68% 18 Brigham Young 28 32.8, 82 Washington 27 21.3
67% 187 Grambling 29 29.3, 216 Alcorn State 0 17.8
67% 40 Virginia 16 19.8, 93 Richmond 0 7.0
67% 39 Wisconsin 51 29.4, 75 Marshall 14 18.1
66% 138 Fordham 16 32.2, 163 Rhode Island 0 23.1
65% 229 North Carolina A&T 14 24.9, 238 Winston-Salem 8 13.0
64% 191 Tennessee State 34 23.0, 218 Southern 32 12.2
64% 173 Jacksonville State 45 25.7, 204 Alabama A&M 18 16.1
64% 171 Towson 21 21.8, 202 Morgan State 16 11.4
64% 170 Southern Methodist 47 37.6, 185 Texas State - San Marc 36 30.5
64% 48 Michigan State 42 30.5, 72 Eastern Michigan 10 20.9
63% 203 Bethune - Cookman 28 23.6, 217 Alabama State 7 15.7
63% 117 Western Michigan 29 30.6, 135 Northern Illinois 26 23.3
63% 91 New Hampshire 28 26.9, 154 Army 10 18.9
63% 49 Ball State 35 42.1, 66 Navy 23 35.4
62% 184 Delaware State 35 26.1, 200 Florida A&M 28 19.0
62% 152 Bucknell 48 23.9, 176 Duquesne 42 16.2
62% 51 Air Force 23 24.2, 104 Wyoming 3 17.0
62% 15 South Florida 31 22.3, 57 Central Florida 24 14.9
61% 219 Virginia Military 49 30.9, 226 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 25.7
61% 126 North Carolina State 34 25.0, 144 William & Mary 24 18.2
60% 165 Colgate 23 32.7, 197 Coastal Carolina 19 28.7
60% 157 South Dakota State 40 25.9, 162 Youngstown State 7 21.3
60% 55 Wake Forest 30 23.3, 64 Mississippi 28 18.3
60% 37 Oklahoma State 56 24.3, 43 Houston 37 19.7
60% 24 California 66 26.0, 60 Washington State 3 21.4
59% 189 Robert Morris 27 18.0, 190 Morehead State 13 14.0
59% 38 Arizona State 41 24.2, 36 Stanford 17 21.1
54% 88 Pittsburgh 27 19.3, 79 Buffalo 16 17.5
54% 32 Texas Tech 35 38.2, 62 Nevada - Reno 19 37.0
51% 196 Georgetown 12 22.3, 211 Howard 7 22.0
48% 140 Western Kentucky 37 18.1, 158 Eastern Kentucky 13 18.8
44% 223 Idaho 42 22.2, 201 Idaho State 27 24.5
43% 81 Texas A&M 28 8.6, 80 New Mexico 22 12.0
42% 84 Massachusetts 45 23.4, 89 Holy Cross 42 26.0
41% 58 Northwestern 24 19.0, 59 Duke 20 22.5
40% 156 Florida Atlantic 49 20.3, 115 Alabama - Birmingham 34 24.6
40% 129 Akron 42 17.3, 124 Syracuse 28 21.5
39% 183 Maine 21 16.4, 169 Monmouth 17 22.1
38% 132 Elon 30 22.0, 118 Stony Brook 20 28.7
37% 120 Middle Tennessee State 24 9.2, 54 Maryland 14 18.3
35% 125 Montana 30 18.4, 99 California Poly 28 27.6
34% 61 Georgia Tech 19 9.8, 22 Boston College 16 22.2
34% 45 East Carolina 24 28.6, 10 West Virginia 3 37.0
32% 112 Minnesota 42 24.7, 73 Bowling Green 17 36.2
32% 68 Vanderbilt 24 8.7, 6 South Carolina 17 23.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 0.88 34 1.19 21 1.33 23 1.19 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 93 78 65.7 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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