prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 146 Northern Illinois 48 46.7, 240 Indiana State 3 7.1
92% 20 South Florida 17 43.3, 192 Florida International 9 10.0
92% 13 Texas Christian 48 42.4, 168 Southern Methodist 7 11.6
92% 4 Brigham Young 44 37.4, 93 Wyoming 0 7.0
91% 144 San Diego 43 66.3, 244 Campbell 7 7.0
91% 28 Kansas 38 44.5, 178 Sam Houston State 14 10.9
91% 22 South Carolina 23 40.2, 175 Wofford 13 6.4
91% 10 Penn State 45 36.2, 103 Temple 3 7.8
89% 161 Duquesne 21 47.8, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 18.9
88% 150 Western Kentucky 50 37.2, 229 Murray State 9 11.6
88% 147 Louisiana Tech 41 37.8, 224 Southeast Louisiana 26 14.3
88% 25 Clemson 54 29.8, 145 South Carolina State 0 7.1
87% 120 Western Illinois 34 38.5, 221 Stephen F. Austin 14 13.3
87% 30 Georgia Tech 38 27.4, 118 Mississippi State 7 6.4
87% 14 Texas 52 45.6, 99 Rice 10 22.1
87% 11 Missouri 42 49.5, 105 Buffalo 21 22.9
86% 211 Central Connecticut 35 41.7, 243 North Carolina Central 23 14.2
86% 50 Maryland 51 31.7, 151 Eastern Michigan 24 10.0
85% 110 William & Mary 42 42.0, 210 Norfolk State 12 18.5
84% 26 Texas Tech 56 40.1, 92 Massachusetts 14 22.4
83% 138 Western Michigan 41 40.8, 204 Tennessee Tech 7 23.4
83% 54 Cincinnati 45 34.8, 119 Miami - Ohio 20 17.2
83% 2 Florida 30 35.6, 64 Tennessee 6 16.0
82% 183 Bethune - Cookman 34 33.9, 235 Savannah State 9 8.8
82% 172 Morgan State 21 36.7, 241 Winston-Salem 7 9.8
81% 163 Hampton 44 35.3, 230 North Carolina A&T 7 11.8
81% 109 Washington State 48 36.6, 185 Portland State 9 18.1
80% 137 Utah State 42 33.2, 194 Idaho 17 17.7
80% 96 Syracuse 30 28.7, 167 Northeastern 21 12.5
79% 162 Alabama - Birmingham 45 29.0, 222 Alabama State 10 10.7
79% 133 Northern Arizona 19 31.2, 212 Southern Utah 14 17.5
79% 57 Northwestern 16 32.2, 107 Ohio 8 17.6
79% 44 Purdue 32 37.9, 101 Central Michigan 25 22.4
78% 126 California Poly 52 38.1, 216 Northwestern State 18 23.2
77% 186 Monmouth 30 30.5, 233 Bryant 17 14.4
77% 66 Yale 47 22.9, 180 Georgetown 7 2.7
77% 18 Arizona 31 38.2, 111 California - Los Angel 10 23.2
76% 97 Brown 17 38.1, 153 Stony Brook 7 26.1
76% 95 Richmond 44 22.5, 149 Maine 17 11.6
76% 87 Montana 29 26.9, 140 California - Davis 24 16.2
75% 116 Dayton 31 25.8, 166 Robert Morris 14 13.4
75% 19 Connecticut 31 27.1, 58 Baylor 28 15.8
74% 134 Hofstra 23 27.6, 173 Rhode Island 20 16.9
74% 74 Stanford 23 25.8, 106 San Jose State 10 16.4
73% 94 Northern Iowa 34 30.4, 130 South Dakota State 20 21.0
72% 225 Prairie View 49 22.2, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 15 11.4
71% 115 Minnesota 37 33.0, 141 Florida Atlantic 3 24.3
70% 157 Tennessee State 34 25.5, 177 Eastern Kentucky 20 17.3
69% 227 Western Carolina 23 30.8, 239 Presbyterian 21 22.3
69% 100 Tulane 24 24.1, 124 Northeast Louisiana 10 16.5
68% 55 Arkansas State 31 28.3, 69 Middle Tennessee State 14 21.2
67% 114 Akron 22 18.0, 164 Army 3 12.7
67% 113 New Hampshire 32 29.1, 131 Albany 24 22.1
65% 68 Harvard 25 32.3, 86 Holy Cross 24 23.4
65% 8 Georgia 27 25.5, 34 Arizona State 10 19.8
64% 142 Memphis 31 25.5, 160 Nicholls State 10 18.5
64% 24 Alabama 49 27.6, 73 Arkansas 14 22.3
63% 182 Coastal Carolina 31 22.9, 187 Towson 3 18.6
63% 81 Navy 23 27.1, 85 Rutgers 21 22.1
63% 43 Boston College 34 13.8, 41 Central Florida 7 10.1
62% 176 Wagner 21 25.4, 213 Marist 14 21.1
62% 27 Virginia Tech 20 20.9, 70 North Carolina 17 17.2
61% 198 Grambling 14 23.7, 199 Jackson State 5 20.2
61% 36 Vanderbilt 23 24.3, 75 Mississippi 17 20.9
60% 61 Fresno State 55 21.0, 82 Toledo 54 18.3
59% 155 Colgate 34 29.5, 152 Dartmouth 20 27.3
59% 79 James Madison 35 34.0, 76 Appalachian State 32 31.5
59% 23 Ohio State 28 17.6, 21 Troy State 10 15.5
58% 156 Jacksonville State 31 27.2, 179 Tennessee - Chattanoog 3 25.3
58% 122 Fordham 29 19.1, 158 Columbia 22 17.2
56% 52 Michigan State 23 20.9, 38 Notre Dame 7 19.3
53% 60 Ball State 42 23.6, 78 Indiana 20 23.0
52% 29 Miami - Florida 41 17.2, 56 Texas A&M 23 16.8
48% 154 Louisiana - Lafayette 44 21.8, 128 Kent State 27 22.2
48% 108 Elon 22 29.8, 127 Georgia Southern 20 30.3
47% 80 Villanova 20 25.3, 88 Pennsylvania 14 26.6
46% 218 Sacred Heart 44 32.8, 223 Iona 24 33.9
44% 209 Tennessee - Martin 31 18.8, 220 Austin Peay 17 20.2
42% 6 Louisiana State 26 11.9, 7 Auburn 21 13.2
41% 197 Texas State - San Marc 38 28.4, 203 Northern Colorado 35 30.4
41% 181 Eastern Illinois 25 22.1, 189 Illinois State 21 24.1
41% 40 Utah 30 17.9, 51 Air Force 23 19.6
39% 148 Cornell 21 24.7, 139 Bucknell 20 29.2
38% 159 The Citadel 37 23.3, 98 Princeton 24 29.9
37% 214 Florida A&M 51 29.0, 207 Howard 24 33.9
37% 83 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 24.4, 47 Iowa State 31 28.9
36% 45 Louisville 38 25.1, 12 Kansas State 29 30.8
34% 190 Weber State 32 17.7, 174 Sacramento State 27 24.5
33% 129 Furman 23 14.4, 71 Delaware 21 20.7
33% 102 Tulsa 56 21.5, 39 New Mexico 14 29.8
29% 65 Colorado 17 20.8, 16 West Virginia 14 28.9
28% 90 North Carolina State 30 19.4, 32 East Carolina 24 28.1
27% 232 Alcorn State 13 11.5, 200 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 22.2
25% 135 Colorado State 28 26.8, 63 Houston 25 37.4
24% 169 New Mexico State 34 13.1, 121 Texas - El Paso 33 26.0
24% 37 Wake Forest 12 15.3, 15 Florida State 3 26.9
23% 238 North Dakota 38 17.6, 219 Idaho State 35 37.0
22% 234 Missouri State 45 16.3, 215 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 33.2
22% 77 Pittsburgh 21 10.8, 9 Iowa 20 22.7
18% 31 Boise State 37 19.8, 5 Oregon 32 36.3
17% 206 Youngstown State 32 10.4, 91 North Dakota State 24 30.0
14% 123 Marshall 34 16.0, 35 Southern Mississippi 27 36.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.84 25 1.06 29 0.91 23 1.03 8 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 73 74.4 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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