prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 136 Dayton 42 46.6, 245 Campbell 0 1.6
92% 17 Boise State 38 37.3, 140 Louisiana Tech 3 8.7
92% 3 Brigham Young 34 44.2, 151 Utah State 14 10.5
91% 14 Virginia Tech 27 35.1, 137 Western Kentucky 13 6.3
90% 147 Jacksonville State 38 34.7, 229 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 8.5
89% 177 Illinois State 57 35.5, 243 Indiana State 6 12.2
89% 135 California Poly 49 43.8, 238 South Dakota 22 8.6
88% 146 New Mexico State 45 36.6, 230 Alcorn State 10 10.1
88% 98 Northern Iowa 34 30.4, 194 Nicholls State 14 7.5
88% 80 Nevada - Reno 49 42.7, 206 Idaho 14 22.0
87% 24 Texas Christian 41 33.6, 130 San Diego State 7 10.3
87% 11 Oklahoma State 56 41.4, 99 Texas A&M 28 19.1
86% 150 San Diego 42 40.5, 226 Valparaiso 14 17.1
85% 163 Monmouth 42 31.7, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 15 8.2
85% 144 Western Illinois 33 33.2, 228 Missouri State 21 14.3
83% 210 Texas State - San Marc 63 47.6, 242 Texas Southern 39 26.7
82% 31 Tennessee 13 29.3, 105 Northern Illinois 9 12.2
81% 42 Yale 31 34.4, 104 Holy Cross 28 18.8
81% 2 Texas 38 31.6, 62 Colorado 14 13.9
80% 171 California - Davis 34 27.8, 219 Northern Colorado 30 14.4
80% 122 Pennsylvania 23 19.5, 170 Dartmouth 10 6.4
80% 90 Appalachian State 47 38.3, 156 The Citadel 21 23.9
80% 89 Richmond 56 37.4, 197 Virginia Military 16 20.9
79% 4 Penn State 20 32.8, 67 Purdue 6 20.2
78% 1 Oklahoma 49 36.4, 50 Baylor 17 21.6
77% 79 James Madison 56 23.4, 126 Hofstra 0 12.4
77% 5 Florida 38 34.7, 81 Arkansas 7 20.7
76% 176 Grambling 40 19.7, 225 Prairie View 16 10.9
76% 139 Bucknell 21 28.7, 203 Marist 17 19.1
76% 16 Boston College 38 19.5, 78 North Carolina State 31 10.2
75% 160 Northern Arizona 42 30.0, 188 Sacramento State 10 19.6
75% 82 Middle Tennessee State 14 24.7, 120 Florida Atlantic 13 15.8
75% 52 Ball State 31 40.2, 132 Toledo 0 30.7
75% 46 Notre Dame 28 27.8, 76 Stanford 21 17.8
74% 39 Arizona 48 27.6, 74 Washington 14 17.4
74% 18 Georgia Tech 27 27.9, 41 Duke 0 18.6
73% 22 West Virginia 24 19.9, 54 Rutgers 17 10.3
71% 175 Samford 21 24.9, 221 Western Carolina 6 16.0
70% 38 Cincinnati 33 28.2, 97 Marshall 10 21.0
70% 12 Florida State 41 24.0, 63 Miami - Florida 39 16.7
69% 28 California 24 27.5, 45 Arizona State 14 20.3
69% 19 Alabama 17 20.3, 33 Kentucky 14 12.5
67% 166 Florida International 42 20.4, 208 North Texas 10 14.4
67% 25 Kansas 35 29.3, 70 Iowa State 33 23.5
66% 143 Georgia Southern 52 30.2, 183 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 24.4
66% 112 New Mexico 24 19.7, 125 Wyoming 0 14.3
65% 117 Princeton 27 27.4, 172 Columbia 24 20.7
65% 60 Tulsa 63 49.6, 72 Rice 28 44.0
64% 213 Stephen F. Austin 48 40.0, 220 Southeast Louisiana 45 35.2
63% 155 Hampton 17 22.5, 198 Delaware State 14 17.3
63% 7 Texas Tech 58 34.5, 48 Kansas State 28 30.3
62% 185 Central Connecticut 35 24.4, 190 Wagner 10 19.8
62% 174 Bethune - Cookman 31 25.5, 207 Morgan State 27 21.5
62% 152 Northeastern 35 21.9, 182 Towson 17 18.6
62% 124 North Dakota State 35 28.3, 127 Southern Illinois 27 24.6
61% 214 Charleston Southern 13 28.8, 209 Gardner - Webb 10 25.7
61% 181 Tennessee State 30 34.0, 211 Tennessee - Martin 27 30.9
61% 111 Akron 30 22.6, 149 Kent State 27 19.9
61% 101 Western Michigan 41 28.0, 96 Ohio 20 24.7
60% 87 Minnesota 16 29.1, 85 Indiana 7 26.0
60% 77 California - Los Angel 28 21.3, 71 Washington State 3 18.5
60% 69 Harvard 27 21.9, 109 Lafayette 13 19.3
60% 13 Southern California 44 27.2, 9 Oregon 10 24.3
59% 191 Sacred Heart 31 22.1, 179 Robert Morris 28 20.4
59% 186 Eastern Kentucky 33 21.3, 216 Tennessee Tech 12 19.6
59% 47 Utah 31 26.1, 37 Oregon State 28 23.8
57% 138 Albany 33 24.5, 165 Duquesne 23 22.8
57% 110 Elon 31 22.8, 94 Furman 10 21.4
57% 6 Missouri 52 35.8, 29 Nebraska 17 34.4
56% 35 Michigan State 16 22.7, 23 Iowa 13 21.5
55% 193 Montana State 33 29.7, 215 Idaho State 21 28.8
53% 159 Central Florida 31 27.9, 148 Southern Methodist 17 27.2
51% 204 Morehead State 26 31.9, 187 Davidson 13 31.8
49% 123 McNeese State 46 31.9, 142 South Dakota State 44 32.0
47% 129 Louisiana - Lafayette 44 27.8, 145 Northeast Louisiana 35 28.4
44% 131 Colorado State 41 23.4, 95 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 24.7
43% 44 South Carolina 31 20.2, 56 Mississippi 24 21.5
42% 189 Southern 35 19.2, 202 Jackson State 28 20.7
41% 86 Cornell 25 13.7, 102 Lehigh 24 15.4
41% 40 Vanderbilt 14 12.0, 10 Auburn 13 13.5
40% 91 Villanova 38 33.4, 103 William & Mary 28 35.6
39% 61 North Carolina 38 25.1, 26 Connecticut 12 28.5
38% 199 Southern Utah 14 18.6, 162 Youngstown State 7 21.9
37% 167 Liberty 43 21.9, 157 Coastal Carolina 38 27.2
36% 116 Memphis 33 23.3, 107 Alabama - Birmingham 30 28.8
35% 195 South Carolina State 28 19.6, 184 Florida A&M 21 25.1
35% 27 Ohio State 20 18.7, 21 Wisconsin 17 24.5
33% 66 Navy 33 26.8, 53 Air Force 27 33.3
33% 58 Pittsburgh 26 17.2, 49 South Florida 21 22.7
33% 55 Illinois 45 22.0, 43 Michigan 20 28.4
32% 153 Temple 28 11.9, 133 Miami - Ohio 10 18.8
31% 121 Massachusetts 17 22.4, 57 Delaware 7 30.5
30% 75 Texas - El Paso 40 26.8, 59 Southern Mississippi 37 34.7
28% 164 Weber State 45 25.1, 93 Montana 28 33.8
28% 88 Virginia 31 12.9, 32 Maryland 0 20.1
24% 236 Murray State 32 16.8, 224 Austin Peay 12 26.7
24% 233 Butler 21 11.0, 180 Drake 15 23.3
24% 212 Portland State 47 32.0, 134 Eastern Washington 36 45.0
23% 244 North Carolina Central 28 12.9, 235 North Carolina A&T 27 24.2
23% 178 Rhode Island 37 19.1, 84 Brown 13 32.5
22% 241 Winston-Salem 34 13.8, 217 Howard 10 27.0
22% 169 Army 44 9.1, 119 Tulane 13 20.8
22% 114 Hawaii 32 22.6, 65 Fresno State 29 35.3
17% 161 Eastern Michigan 24 10.6, 83 Bowling Green 21 28.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 1.02 34 1.05 27 0.79 20 1.12 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 73 73.5 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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