prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 129 Southern Illinois 60 43.6, 240 Indiana State 7 7.0
92% 11 Georgia Tech 10 49.5, 210 Gardner - Webb 7 3.1
91% 120 Furman 28 37.5, 224 Western Carolina 21 8.9
90% 184 Southern 45 45.3, 242 Texas Southern 14 19.7
89% 201 Butler 56 32.4, 245 Campbell 7 7.6
89% 75 Fresno State 45 40.6, 185 Idaho 32 16.0
86% 118 Dayton 27 26.3, 190 Drake 9 8.5
86% 24 West Virginia 17 35.4, 111 Syracuse 6 15.3
85% 121 Wofford 56 32.9, 198 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 14.4
85% 112 Northern Iowa 31 32.6, 188 Illinois State 17 13.2
85% 65 Miami - Florida 20 35.5, 144 Central Florida 14 17.1
85% 44 Yale 34 26.2, 157 Dartmouth 7 9.1
85% 39 Utah 40 26.5, 154 Wyoming 7 9.5
85% 1 Southern California 28 31.9, 40 Arizona State 0 8.2
83% 74 Appalachian State 35 33.2, 182 Samford 24 16.1
83% 50 Houston 45 38.0, 124 Alabama - Birmingham 20 20.3
83% 38 Tulsa 37 43.3, 163 Southern Methodist 31 25.9
83% 6 Brigham Young 21 32.2, 83 New Mexico 3 10.9
82% 209 Florida A&M 23 31.0, 238 Winston-Salem 0 13.4
82% 76 Arkansas State 37 34.3, 153 Northeast Louisiana 29 17.4
81% 136 Northern Arizona 37 41.7, 187 Portland State 17 27.5
81% 104 Pennsylvania 27 21.0, 195 Georgetown 7 8.1
81% 69 Texas - El Paso 24 37.7, 140 Tulane 21 21.4
80% 9 Ohio State 16 24.0, 52 Purdue 3 10.1
79% 86 Hawaii 24 34.0, 162 Louisiana Tech 14 17.7
78% 135 San Diego 41 31.4, 186 Morehead State 17 17.1
78% 82 Northern Illinois 17 27.0, 137 Miami - Ohio 13 14.4
77% 175 South Carolina State 24 25.7, 216 Norfolk State 23 14.2
77% 132 Louisiana - Lafayette 59 32.8, 206 North Texas 30 21.9
77% 94 Lafayette 13 30.0, 178 Columbia 3 19.0
77% 32 Oregon State 66 28.4, 79 Washington State 13 15.7
77% 25 Texas Christian 13 27.4, 100 Colorado State 7 15.4
76% 169 California - Davis 49 24.4, 203 Southern Utah 26 13.9
76% 102 Lehigh 45 22.1, 139 Fordham 24 12.8
76% 95 Central Michigan 24 24.1, 142 Temple 14 13.2
76% 41 Ball State 24 28.6, 125 Western Kentucky 7 17.8
76% 28 Kansas 30 31.0, 64 Colorado 14 20.7
76% 14 Oregon 31 37.9, 58 California - Los Angel 24 25.3
76% 10 Georgia 26 26.2, 34 Tennessee 14 15.8
75% 207 Marist 34 24.8, 223 Bryant 7 14.1
75% 61 Troy State 30 29.5, 133 Florida Atlantic 17 20.0
75% 8 Texas Tech 37 35.0, 29 Nebraska 31 24.4
74% 181 Sacred Heart 41 32.1, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 20.6
73% 26 Iowa 45 22.8, 89 Indiana 9 14.7
73% 15 Boise State 24 29.6, 72 Southern Mississippi 7 21.3
72% 192 Morgan State 41 25.4, 231 North Carolina A&T 3 17.0
72% 68 Harvard 38 26.3, 87 Cornell 17 18.2
72% 35 Louisville 35 32.1, 113 Memphis 28 22.4
71% 160 Monmouth 31 20.7, 214 Wagner 17 13.4
71% 105 Elon 27 31.7, 167 The Citadel 23 24.0
71% 88 Holy Cross 41 32.9, 116 Brown 34 24.3
70% 211 Northern Colorado 29 33.4, 220 Idaho State 9 25.8
69% 70 Air Force 35 29.5, 131 San Diego State 10 22.1
68% 202 Jackson State 21 21.2, 233 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 14.8
68% 150 Albany 24 27.4, 166 Central Connecticut 22 20.3
68% 114 San Jose State 30 20.2, 127 Utah State 7 14.6
67% 43 Kansas State 44 35.2, 96 Texas A&M 30 29.1
66% 149 Weber State 35 29.7, 189 Montana State 12 24.1
65% 66 Baylor 38 29.0, 71 Iowa State 10 23.1
65% 46 Cincinnati 13 18.9, 47 Rutgers 10 14.5
64% 230 Alcorn State 35 21.6, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 16.9
64% 119 Colgate 27 26.6, 122 Princeton 24 22.2
64% 7 Florida 51 25.2, 13 Louisiana State 21 20.1
63% 241 Presbyterian 28 27.0, 243 North Carolina Central 24 21.9
63% 57 Virginia 35 21.1, 62 East Carolina 20 17.0
63% 36 North Carolina 29 23.2, 37 Notre Dame 24 19.1
63% 5 Penn State 48 25.7, 27 Wisconsin 7 21.1
62% 99 Massachusetts 28 28.6, 151 Northeastern 24 24.1
61% 49 James Madison 38 22.7, 85 Richmond 31 19.5
60% 217 Charleston Southern 29 20.2, 236 Savannah State 20 16.7
60% 204 Northwestern State 36 20.1, 194 Nicholls State 28 17.9
60% 176 Grambling 27 24.9, 205 Alabama A&M 9 22.4
60% 161 Liberty 33 30.2, 158 Stony Brook 0 27.5
57% 177 Robert Morris 34 26.1, 168 Duquesne 27 24.6
56% 128 Montana 19 32.9, 155 Eastern Washington 3 31.6
54% 145 Army 17 16.2, 130 Eastern Michigan 13 15.4
52% 123 Ohio 26 24.8, 147 Kent State 19 24.3
50% 33 Wake Forest 12 15.1, 20 Clemson 7 15.1
48% 30 Michigan State 37 22.4, 51 Northwestern 20 22.8
48% 3 Texas 45 20.9, 2 Oklahoma 35 21.4
47% 222 Prairie View 27 15.8, 208 Alabama State 6 16.5
42% 31 South Carolina 24 15.1, 45 Kentucky 17 16.7
41% 196 Virginia Military 47 27.6, 172 Coastal Carolina 20 29.5
41% 84 Western Michigan 34 29.4, 97 Buffalo 28 31.4
40% 193 Towson 37 20.8, 164 Rhode Island 32 23.6
40% 101 Bowling Green 37 22.3, 115 Akron 33 24.8
37% 110 William & Mary 38 30.9, 98 New Hampshire 34 35.5
36% 180 Eastern Kentucky 38 16.2, 138 Jacksonville State 35 20.8
35% 212 Tennessee - Martin 29 23.8, 173 Eastern Illinois 26 28.8
33% 232 Valparaiso 35 24.7, 200 Davidson 29 33.1
32% 146 Western Illinois 27 19.3, 126 North Dakota State 22 26.4
31% 237 Murray State 51 23.3, 213 Tennessee Tech 21 30.4
30% 12 Oklahoma State 28 29.9, 4 Missouri 23 37.8
28% 78 Stanford 24 22.8, 19 Arizona 23 31.4
26% 109 Mississippi State 17 11.7, 42 Vanderbilt 14 19.6
26% 80 Minnesota 27 25.9, 56 Illinois 20 34.8
25% 227 Central Arkansas 48 25.2, 171 Sam Houston State 46 36.5
25% 197 Delaware State 26 15.6, 165 Bethune - Cookman 20 24.7
25% 179 Hofstra 45 12.8, 148 Bucknell 31 23.2
24% 226 Missouri State 42 14.3, 174 Youngstown State 28 25.7
24% 170 Florida International 31 11.0, 91 Middle Tennessee State 21 21.1
22% 143 New Mexico State 48 23.4, 90 Nevada - Reno 45 36.3
22% 117 Toledo 13 14.8, 53 Michigan 10 29.5
22% 73 Arkansas 25 11.5, 22 Auburn 22 24.8
20% 159 Maine 27 8.6, 92 Delaware 10 23.4
14% 215 Texas State - San Marc 45 29.7, 103 McNeese State 42 53.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.89 25 1.05 41 0.94 21 1.13 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 77 76.7 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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