prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 134 Western Illinois 56 42.4, 244 Indiana State 0 5.8
91% 190 Drake 45 30.8, 245 Campbell 0 2.0
91% 93 Wofford 42 39.6, 213 Western Carolina 14 13.6
91% 1 Southern California 69 35.8, 98 Washington State 0 6.7
90% 183 Coastal Carolina 35 39.2, 243 North Carolina Central 10 11.8
90% 5 Penn State 46 30.0, 76 Michigan 17 6.3
88% 181 Delaware State 42 25.6, 234 North Carolina A&T 7 5.8
87% 189 Gardner - Webb 47 32.0, 239 Presbyterian 21 8.4
86% 154 California - Davis 55 42.0, 233 Iona 24 17.9
85% 157 Hampton 35 34.4, 218 Norfolk State 17 16.5
85% 105 Montana 43 33.2, 199 Sacramento State 7 12.1
84% 114 Elon 42 30.6, 217 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 13.3
84% 102 Pennsylvania 15 27.1, 175 Columbia 10 10.8
84% 64 Troy State 33 34.0, 161 Florida International 23 14.8
83% 138 Northeast Louisiana 35 32.3, 207 North Texas 23 16.2
83% 33 Tennessee 34 26.3, 112 Mississippi State 3 8.9
82% 167 Jacksonville State 31 38.9, 227 Murray State 21 21.1
81% 185 Eastern Illinois 24 30.5, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 15.6
81% 178 Tennessee State 37 28.2, 225 Austin Peay 34 13.3
81% 38 Houston 44 38.2, 147 Southern Methodist 38 23.7
81% 34 South Florida 45 27.6, 96 Syracuse 13 13.0
81% 14 Boise State 27 32.6, 78 Hawaii 7 15.4
81% 9 Georgia 24 28.0, 61 Vanderbilt 14 13.4
81% 6 Oregon State 34 39.8, 99 Washington 13 23.4
80% 204 Jackson State 30 34.9, 241 Texas Southern 14 21.0
80% 141 Northern Arizona 52 36.1, 223 Idaho State 30 21.9
80% 55 Louisville 42 31.7, 122 Middle Tennessee State 23 16.6
80% 4 Oklahoma 45 36.2, 26 Kansas 31 21.6
79% 169 Grambling 27 26.1, 216 Alabama State 7 13.1
79% 166 Stony Brook 20 28.3, 214 Charleston Southern 19 14.7
79% 156 Weber State 17 31.7, 208 Northern Colorado 10 17.7
79% 121 Dayton 41 34.1, 206 Davidson 22 21.4
79% 83 Villanova 44 35.7, 176 Rhode Island 7 23.1
79% 36 Utah 49 31.2, 110 Colorado State 16 15.9
79% 12 Texas Tech 43 37.3, 90 Texas A&M 25 24.6
78% 37 Harvard 27 25.9, 88 Lehigh 24 13.7
78% 10 Oklahoma State 34 34.4, 47 Baylor 6 20.9
77% 95 Nevada - Reno 44 33.7, 150 Utah State 17 20.7
77% 79 New Mexico 70 24.7, 130 San Diego State 7 13.8
77% 35 Tulsa 77 42.4, 73 Texas - El Paso 35 32.6
77% 13 Alabama 24 31.6, 56 Mississippi 20 19.3
76% 210 Alabama A&M 20 24.4, 232 Alcorn State 13 14.3
76% 75 East Carolina 30 33.3, 118 Memphis 10 22.9
76% 70 Holy Cross 44 31.1, 148 Dartmouth 26 20.6
76% 15 Florida State 26 31.0, 82 North Carolina State 17 21.3
76% 2 Texas 56 31.7, 8 Missouri 31 20.8
75% 164 Louisiana Tech 46 28.7, 191 Idaho 14 19.0
75% 115 Buffalo 27 22.4, 155 Army 24 11.8
70% 193 Morgan State 31 27.3, 230 Howard 30 20.4
70% 107 Northern Iowa 23 28.2, 131 North Dakota State 13 20.9
69% 32 Nebraska 35 32.6, 84 Iowa State 7 25.6
68% 145 Maine 41 21.0, 165 Hofstra 40 14.5
68% 143 Furman 34 32.1, 163 The Citadel 20 25.5
68% 124 Southern Illinois 33 28.4, 180 Youngstown State 0 21.5
68% 16 Iowa 38 20.8, 29 Wisconsin 16 14.9
67% 72 Appalachian State 37 38.9, 136 Georgia Southern 36 33.1
67% 28 Boston College 28 20.0, 31 Virginia Tech 23 14.7
64% 66 Air Force 29 26.6, 116 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 21.9
64% 58 California - Los Angel 23 27.0, 65 Stanford 20 21.6
64% 39 Virginia 16 22.1, 48 North Carolina 13 17.4
63% 209 Prairie View 15 15.7, 228 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 12.2
63% 198 Tennessee - Martin 35 32.0, 226 Tennessee Tech 7 27.4
63% 108 New Hampshire 33 30.5, 151 Northeastern 21 26.5
63% 18 Arizona 42 27.4, 24 California 27 22.6
62% 54 Northwestern 48 21.1, 52 Purdue 26 17.5
61% 171 Central Connecticut 35 29.6, 170 Duquesne 23 26.2
61% 162 Eastern Washington 34 23.9, 196 Montana State 17 21.0
61% 81 Illinois 55 24.1, 71 Indiana 13 21.1
61% 53 Kentucky 21 25.3, 57 Arkansas 20 21.9
60% 160 Albany 26 25.8, 188 Sacred Heart 21 23.4
60% 100 Northern Illinois 38 20.7, 92 Toledo 7 18.1
60% 91 Central Michigan 38 31.4, 86 Western Michigan 28 28.8
60% 74 Lafayette 35 22.9, 120 Liberty 21 20.0
60% 51 Rutgers 12 18.7, 42 Connecticut 10 16.6
59% 152 Bucknell 27 20.8, 194 Georgetown 24 18.9
58% 211 Wagner 17 21.0, 229 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 19.4
56% 117 Akron 42 27.6, 140 Eastern Michigan 35 26.4
53% 128 California Poly 42 32.7, 149 South Dakota State 28 32.1
53% 94 San Jose State 31 23.7, 129 New Mexico State 14 23.1
51% 41 Pittsburgh 42 30.8, 62 Navy 21 30.7
50% 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 22 19.3, 237 Savannah State 20 19.3
50% 67 Colorado 14 29.8, 49 Kansas State 13 29.8
49% 20 Texas Christian 32 17.1, 11 Brigham Young 7 17.4
48% 7 Ohio State 45 20.3, 17 Michigan State 7 20.6
47% 104 Rice 45 35.5, 77 Southern Mississippi 40 36.1
47% 101 William & Mary 27 21.2, 127 Delaware 3 21.9
46% 159 McNeese State 28 37.4, 174 Sam Houston State 17 38.3
46% 133 Alabama - Birmingham 23 24.6, 103 Marshall 21 25.3
42% 89 Richmond 30 22.0, 97 Massachusetts 15 24.1
41% 113 Brown 31 22.2, 123 Princeton 10 24.1
41% 25 Louisiana State 24 21.8, 30 South Carolina 17 24.1
39% 224 Southeast Louisiana 26 29.0, 200 Northwestern State 21 32.6
39% 220 Butler 48 18.6, 219 Valparaiso 21 22.8
38% 63 Maryland 26 15.7, 19 Wake Forest 0 18.9
37% 203 Jacksonville 40 18.2, 197 Morehead State 9 23.0
37% 125 Florida Atlantic 24 16.0, 119 Western Kentucky 20 20.1
33% 68 Miami - Florida 49 17.4, 45 Duke 31 24.8
32% 144 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 30.2, 85 Arkansas State 23 36.4
31% 215 Stephen F. Austin 50 27.2, 201 Nicholls State 39 34.8
31% 132 Colgate 38 24.7, 111 Cornell 22 31.9
30% 44 Georgia Tech 21 15.0, 22 Clemson 17 23.4
28% 202 Florida A&M 52 21.4, 179 Southern 49 29.7
24% 222 Central Arkansas 31 30.0, 195 Texas State - San Marc 24 42.0
23% 221 Missouri State 34 18.0, 177 Illinois State 28 33.9
22% 137 Miami - Ohio 27 18.5, 87 Bowling Green 20 30.2
21% 235 Bryant 20 15.9, 173 Robert Morris 7 32.3
21% 153 Fordham 12 16.3, 60 Yale 10 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
20 0.82 32 1.11 31 1.00 19 1.20 5 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 80 76.1 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net