2008 Week 9 (21-26 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90% 160 South Dakota State      49 41.0,   244 Indiana State            9 15.8
 90% 151 Albany                  27 34.7,   231 Saint Francis - Pennsy   3  9.8
 90% 121 Dayton                  43 35.4,   223 Valparaiso               7 11.0
 90%   9 Texas Christian         54 28.6,   150 Wyoming                  7  2.9
 89%  79 Richmond                48 28.6,   191 Georgetown               0  6.0
 89%  14 Tulsa                   49 43.7,   135 Central Florida         19 18.6
 88% 105 Massachusetts           42 42.9,   234 Bryant                   7  8.7
 87%  11 Brigham Young           42 39.6,   114 Nevada - Las Vegas      35 16.4
 86%  91 New Hampshire           42 38.8,   190 Towson                  14 17.4
 85% 208 Jackson State           29 32.0,   239 Mississippi Valley Sta  27 14.2
 85%   3 Florida                 63 30.6,    52 Kentucky                 5 10.8
 84% 188 Marist                  28 34.2,   233 Iona                     7 16.6
 84% 155 California - Davis      34 43.5,   235 North Dakota            21 18.4
 84% 133 California Poly         69 36.3,   214 Southern Utah           41 16.6
 84% 127 Liberty                 42 35.8,   202 Charleston Southern      0 18.1
 84%  96 Southern Illinois       23 39.2,   224 Missouri State          17 16.9
 83%  85 William & Mary          34 33.7,   171 Rhode Island            24 15.7
 82% 178 Bethune - Cookman       27 30.2,   241 Winston-Salem            6 11.9
 82%  69 Troy State              45 37.1,   197 North Texas             17 19.2
 82%  59 Ball State              38 34.8,   148 Eastern Michigan        16 16.1
 80% 137 Georgia Southern        38 36.4,   221 Western Carolina        31 21.8
 80% 101 Montana                 41 26.9,   204 Northern Colorado       20 12.1
 80%   1 Southern California     17 25.8,    18 Arizona                 10 12.7
 79%  78 Appalachian State       26 36.2,   141 Furman                  14 22.4
 79%  13 Missouri                58 31.9,    62 Colorado                 0 18.1
 78%  77 Navy                    34 40.2,   139 Southern Methodist       7 27.7
 77%  19 Boise State             33 21.3,    98 San Jose State          16 10.7
 77%   2 Texas                   28 34.3,     8 Oklahoma State          24 22.3
 76% 166 Drake                   20 30.1,   199 Davidson                17 19.6
 76% 103 Northern Iowa           21 24.9,   185 Youngstown State        20 14.7
 75%  82 Fresno State            30 31.1,   161 Utah State              28 21.4
 75%  76 Northern Illinois       16 24.1,   106 Bowling Green           13 15.1
 75%  29 Nebraska                32 28.1,    66 Baylor                  20 17.6
 75%   4 Oklahoma                58 37.1,    42 Kansas State            35 27.5
 74%  46 Maryland                27 26.4,    75 North Carolina State    24 17.5
 74%  28 California              41 29.4,    60 California - Los Angel  20 19.7
 73% 211 Portland State          36 40.4,   227 Idaho State             13 32.6
 72%  97 Brown                   27 27.2,   136 Cornell                  7 18.5
 70% 118 North Dakota State      25 28.9,   181 Illinois State           7 21.1
 70%  51 Harvard                 24 25.4,   119 Princeton               20 18.0
 69% 113 Mississippi State       31 21.3,   128 Middle Tennessee State  22 15.1
 69%  20 Florida State           30 24.1,    33 Virginia Tech           20 17.5
 68% 218 Austin Peay             31 22.2,   226 Tennessee Tech          28 16.2
 68%  37 Miami - Florida         16 23.0,    58 Wake Forest             10 16.2
 67% 179 Eastern Kentucky        20 23.4,   187 Eastern Illinois         7 17.8
 67% 138 Army                    14 17.9,   149 Louisiana Tech           7 12.8
 67%  34 Wisconsin               27 29.5,    47 Illinois                17 23.3
 67%  23 West Virginia           34 18.7,    27 Auburn                  17 13.9
 64% 156 Monmouth                30 24.2,   164 Central Connecticut     20 19.7
 64% 147 Maine                   20 24.9,   154 Northeastern             0 19.8
 64% 111 Colgate                 52 32.5,   159 Bucknell                28 27.2
 64%  80 Holy Cross              35 31.4,    86 Lehigh                  21 26.5
 63%  84 Hawaii                  38 34.8,    89 Nevada - Reno           31 30.1
 62% 130 Delaware                17 19.1,   172 Hofstra                  0 15.2
 62%  81 Lafayette               48 21.8,   132 Fordham                 13 18.4
 62%  50 Connecticut             40 22.1,    48 Cincinnati              16 18.5
 61% 220 Central Arkansas        28 29.9,   222 Southeast Louisiana     21 26.1
 61% 194 Florida A&M             31 29.1,   219 Norfolk State           28 26.5
 61% 173 Gardner - Webb          34 28.9,   174 Virginia Military       27 25.0
 61% 123 Colorado State          38 27.3,   163 San Diego State         34 24.2
 60%  61 Notre Dame              33 22.4,    92 Washington               7 20.0
 58%  36 Louisville              24 29.0,    30 South Florida           20 27.3
 57%  93 Rice                    42 33.5,   129 Tulane                  17 32.1
 57%  57 James Madison           23 26.8,    83 Villanova               19 25.4
 55%  26 Oregon                  54 28.8,    45 Arizona State           20 27.8
 53% 217 Butler                  31 18.3,   203 Morehead State          21 17.9
 53% 196 Tennessee - Martin      31 24.7,   180 Jacksonville State      30 24.0
 53%   7 Georgia                 52 26.4,    16 Louisiana State         38 25.9
 52% 167 Stony Brook             28 20.5,   182 Coastal Carolina        24 20.1
 52%  90 Central Michigan        24 28.2,   115 Toledo                  23 27.8
 52%  35 Michigan State          35 21.7,    63 Michigan                21 21.2
 51% 209 Alabama A&M             17 19.3,   212 Alabama State           16 19.1
 51% 183 Robert Morris           35 18.5,   207 Wagner                   3 18.2
 51%  70 Air Force               23 20.5,    49 New Mexico              10 20.2
 50% 165 Columbia                21 18.1,   140 Dartmouth               13 18.1

 49% 198 Montana State           31 19.9,   216 Sacramento State        20 20.1
 49% 192 Texas State - San Marc  62 39.4,   210 Stephen F. Austin       21 39.5
 48% 120 Florida Atlantic        29 23.0,   144 Northeast Louisiana     28 23.5
 47%   5 Penn State              13 15.7,     6 Ohio State               6 16.3
 44% 146 Temple                  14 17.5,   109 Ohio                    10 18.6
 44%  74 Texas A&M               49 22.7,    87 Iowa State              35 24.0
 43%  99 Wofford                 55 23.0,   116 Elon                    20 24.3
 43%  10 Texas Tech              63 30.9,    24 Kansas                  21 32.2
 42% 193 Morgan State            20 17.8,   169 Delaware State           3 19.2
 41% 205 Northwestern State      24 24.9,   176 Sam Houston State       16 27.2
 41% 189 Samford                 28 22.9,   162 The Citadel             10 24.8
 40% 236 North Carolina A&T      21 20.3,   225 Howard                  20 22.8
 40% 195 Prairie View            24 16.9,   177 Southern                23 19.0
 40% 186 South Carolina State    35 21.0,   152 Hampton                 13 23.6
 40%  15 Alabama                 29 18.8,    25 Tennessee                9 20.8
 37%  54 North Carolina          45 22.8,    21 Boston College          24 27.0
 36% 125 Memphis                 36 22.4,    73 Southern Mississippi    30 27.8
 36%  71 Minnesota               17 25.9,    64 Purdue                   6 31.9
 36%  43 Rutgers                 54 13.2,    41 Pittsburgh              34 17.8
 35% 168 Weber State             42 22.5,   158 Northern Arizona        14 27.6
 35%  65 Duke                    10 17.0,    56 Vanderbilt               7 21.8
 33%  55 Mississippi             23 27.3,    44 Arkansas                21 33.5
 31%  40 Virginia                24 13.6,    31 Georgia Tech            17 19.6
 30% 104 Indiana                 21 19.9,    38 Northwestern            19 28.0
 29% 143 Kent State              54 18.4,   117 Miami - Ohio            21 25.8
 28% 206 Idaho                   20 26.9,   145 New Mexico State        14 35.9
 27% 201 Sacred Heart            29 23.3,   175 Duquesne                17 32.0
 25% 230 Southeast Missouri Sta  27 24.1,   184 Tennessee State         20 33.6
 24% 200 Jacksonville            30 22.2,   110 San Diego               29 34.6
 22% 240 Texas Southern          30 17.3,   229 Alcorn State            29 29.4
 21% 100 Pennsylvania             9  8.8,    67 Yale                     7 19.4
 18% 213 Nicholls State          38 17.9,   142 McNeese State           35 36.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               26 0.99  33 0.99  26 0.97  20 1.12   2 1.11   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107  75  73.8 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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