prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 113 California Poly 49 49.1, 244 North Carolina Central 3 9.8
92% 52 Appalachian State 49 43.2, 221 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 11.4
92% 26 Auburn 37 39.4, 203 Tennessee - Martin 20 3.7
92% 10 Boise State 49 34.9, 143 Utah State 14 4.7
91% 20 Brigham Young 41 45.5, 159 San Diego State 12 16.5
90% 97 Northern Iowa 42 39.4, 226 Missouri State 0 7.7
89% 188 Youngstown State 35 32.8, 242 Indiana State 21 9.3
89% 1 Southern California 17 30.3, 23 California 3 7.5
88% 4 Texas 45 37.1, 67 Baylor 21 15.2
87% 54 Harvard 42 32.3, 148 Columbia 28 11.9
86% 120 Elon 33 32.4, 212 Western Carolina 14 11.8
86% 2 Florida 42 34.8, 51 Vanderbilt 14 15.0
85% 173 Central Connecticut 36 33.5, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 15.1
85% 166 South Carolina State 56 32.4, 227 Howard 0 13.9
85% 111 Dayton 28 31.1, 219 Butler 21 12.6
85% 17 Arizona 59 33.2, 137 Washington State 28 13.3
84% 206 Charleston Southern 29 32.3, 241 Presbyterian 18 13.7
84% 156 Stony Brook 68 36.4, 239 Iona 9 18.3
84% 91 Montana 29 36.2, 207 Portland State 12 19.8
83% 44 Rutgers 35 25.9, 106 Syracuse 17 10.4
83% 6 Missouri 41 41.7, 55 Kansas State 24 25.4
80% 115 Delaware 31 25.0, 187 Towson 21 10.4
80% 83 Rice 38 31.3, 155 Army 31 16.6
79% 169 Grambling 28 24.3, 224 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 11.5
79% 154 McNeese State 42 37.9, 211 Stephen F. Austin 31 23.4
79% 74 Houston 42 32.6, 126 Tulane 14 19.1
79% 3 Oklahoma 66 39.4, 62 Texas A&M 28 24.9
78% 167 Weber State 59 33.9, 228 Idaho State 27 21.6
78% 92 Troy State 17 30.7, 144 Western Kentucky 7 18.5
78% 60 Air Force 38 30.9, 108 Colorado State 17 18.4
76% 194 Jacksonville 40 30.9, 235 Valparaiso 24 20.3
76% 138 Florida Atlantic 46 27.7, 176 North Texas 13 17.1
76% 124 Wofford 33 37.0, 163 The Citadel 28 25.9
76% 112 William & Mary 38 29.1, 157 Northeastern 17 17.8
76% 88 Hawaii 42 32.9, 170 New Mexico State 30 22.3
76% 76 Holy Cross 38 36.3, 118 Fordham 17 25.4
76% 71 Richmond 34 26.9, 150 Hofstra 14 16.2
75% 39 Southern Mississippi 17 29.3, 119 Central Florida 6 19.4
75% 24 Wisconsin 55 29.4, 98 Indiana 20 20.1
72% 174 Jacksonville State 41 30.0, 223 Tennessee Tech 17 21.5
72% 164 Drake 19 22.0, 191 Morehead State 15 14.5
72% 37 Arizona State 39 25.5, 110 Washington 19 16.1
72% 34 Michigan State 21 32.6, 65 Purdue 7 22.9
72% 29 Virginia Tech 23 22.9, 56 Maryland 13 15.5
71% 160 Monmouth 19 28.2, 189 Sacred Heart 7 20.2
71% 130 Liberty 38 36.3, 199 Virginia Military 26 28.8
71% 18 Oregon State 34 32.0, 69 California - Los Angel 6 24.5
70% 109 Buffalo 37 29.7, 129 Miami - Ohio 17 22.1
70% 84 Lafayette 38 22.4, 152 Bucknell 21 15.6
70% 38 Boston College 17 25.4, 59 Notre Dame 0 18.1
69% 204 Florida A&M 45 25.4, 233 North Carolina A&T 7 18.5
69% 64 Ball State 45 23.4, 79 Northern Illinois 14 16.6
68% 19 Georgia 42 26.7, 66 Kentucky 38 20.0
68% 9 Ohio State 45 19.8, 53 Northwestern 10 13.5
67% 117 Southern Illinois 24 24.5, 131 Western Illinois 14 18.4
67% 87 Colorado 28 23.1, 103 Iowa State 24 17.7
67% 27 South Carolina 34 23.6, 46 Arkansas 21 17.5
66% 139 Cornell 37 21.6, 146 Dartmouth 14 16.8
66% 127 San Diego 28 32.2, 179 Davidson 24 26.3
65% 168 Eastern Washington 31 23.5, 215 Northern Colorado 16 18.2
64% 25 Oregon 35 32.6, 30 Stanford 28 27.6
63% 153 South Dakota State 52 33.9, 162 Illinois State 21 28.7
63% 43 Wake Forest 28 17.4, 47 Virginia 17 13.6
62% 202 Georgetown 13 19.0, 200 Marist 12 15.8
62% 123 Akron 47 28.7, 122 Toledo 30 25.2
62% 81 Villanova 24 32.3, 82 New Hampshire 13 28.5
62% 58 Pittsburgh 41 32.0, 57 Louisville 7 28.3
61% 180 Duquesne 14 21.5, 214 Wagner 0 18.6
61% 133 Middle Tennessee State 24 26.8, 134 Northeast Louisiana 21 23.2
61% 42 North Carolina 28 23.8, 36 Georgia Tech 7 20.9
60% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 58 31.0, 243 Texas Southern 44 28.6
60% 220 Southern Utah 15 29.5, 236 North Dakota 14 25.4
60% 77 East Carolina 19 23.8, 75 Marshall 16 21.5
59% 193 Tennessee State 45 23.0, 182 Eastern Illinois 24 21.3
58% 116 Memphis 31 29.3, 147 Southern Methodist 26 27.8
58% 11 Texas Tech 56 33.8, 7 Oklahoma State 20 32.2
56% 22 Florida State 41 24.7, 15 Clemson 27 23.5
53% 140 Albany 41 18.2, 165 Robert Morris 7 17.7
51% 230 Murray State 17 26.9, 222 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 26.7
49% 68 Yale 13 19.0, 93 Brown 3 19.3
48% 101 Bowling Green 28 25.6, 121 Ohio 3 26.1
47% 208 Texas State - San Marc 38 28.4, 216 Southeast Louisiana 24 29.0
47% 196 Prairie View 24 15.3, 205 Alabama A&M 10 15.8
42% 61 Michigan 29 24.4, 72 Minnesota 6 26.2
41% 186 Sam Houston State 47 23.5, 195 Nicholls State 37 25.4
41% 102 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 21.9, 70 New Mexico 20 23.8
41% 95 Pennsylvania 14 17.7, 105 Princeton 9 19.5
41% 41 Nebraska 45 28.3, 16 Kansas 35 30.4
40% 99 Texas - El Paso 37 35.9, 107 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 38.3
40% 35 Utah 13 16.4, 13 Texas Christian 10 18.5
40% 8 Alabama 27 21.1, 12 Louisiana State 21 23.8
38% 80 Nevada - Reno 41 33.3, 86 Fresno State 28 36.4
37% 178 Bethune - Cookman 17 25.4, 175 Hampton 6 29.4
37% 96 Colgate 34 20.7, 94 Lehigh 33 25.0
36% 225 Central Arkansas 42 20.9, 201 Northwestern State 6 26.0
36% 218 Norfolk State 35 17.9, 181 Morgan State 9 22.2
36% 21 Iowa 24 14.2, 5 Penn State 23 18.2
34% 192 Montana State 25 19.0, 172 Northern Arizona 23 24.5
33% 213 Jackson State 20 17.0, 210 Alabama State 0 22.2
33% 184 Coastal Carolina 23 21.1, 161 Gardner - Webb 18 27.5
32% 78 North Carolina State 27 20.8, 63 Duke 17 27.7
31% 136 Louisiana Tech 21 17.8, 114 San Jose State 0 25.0
28% 89 Western Michigan 23 24.4, 50 Illinois 17 32.5
27% 125 Maine 21 14.8, 85 Massachusetts 20 23.8
26% 171 Samford 27 23.7, 145 Georgia Southern 17 33.4
25% 185 Florida International 22 16.9, 104 Arkansas State 21 25.9
23% 209 Sacramento State 29 17.2, 158 California - Davis 19 29.4
23% 48 Cincinnati 26 17.2, 14 West Virginia 23 28.2
15% 240 Winston-Salem 27 5.2, 198 Delaware State 26 24.4
14% 128 Wyoming 13 9.3, 32 Tennessee 7 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.73 37 1.00 33 1.09 18 1.04 5 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 79 78.4 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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