2008 Week 13 (18-23 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 174 Morehead State          42 36.7,   245 Campbell                 7  1.8
 92%   1 Florida                 70 61.6,   176 The Citadel             19  8.6
 90% 115 South Carolina State    55 29.9,   233 North Carolina A&T       0  7.1
 90%  90 Northern Iowa           34 34.2,   224 Southern Utah           24  9.8
 89%  70 Appalachian State       35 39.4,   213 Western Carolina        10 17.1
 87% 202 Virginia Military       49 40.4,   243 Presbyterian            27 18.7
 87%  81 Hawaii                  49 39.6,   189 Idaho                   17 18.3
 87%  37 James Madison           58 38.6,   177 Towson                  27 18.7
 87%  29 Rutgers                 30 26.7,   145 Army                     3  4.9
 86%  47 Tulsa                   56 42.3,   150 Tulane                   7 22.1
 85% 164 Grambling               33 37.8,   241 Texas Southern           7 19.1
 84%   8 Ohio State              42 24.4,    57 Michigan                 7  9.0
 83% 137 Middle Tennessee State  52 30.7,   203 North Texas             13 14.7
 80% 119 Montana                 35 26.1,   182 Montana State            3 13.3
 80%  24 Virginia Tech           14 26.3,    74 Duke                     3 12.3
 80%  23 Wisconsin               36 37.9,   102 California Poly         35 19.2
 80%  10 Texas Christian         44 25.3,    61 Air Force               10 11.5
 80%   5 Penn State              49 29.3,    39 Michigan State          18 15.9
 79% 198 Jackson State           26 27.6,   229 Alcorn State            21 13.3
 79%  34 Houston                 42 42.3,    93 Texas - El Paso         37 28.6
 78% 127 San Diego               28 37.3,   185 California - Davis      20 24.2
 78%  84 Brown                   41 27.7,   144 Columbia                10 16.5
 78%  46 Kansas State            38 34.2,    85 Iowa State              30 22.1
 77%  88 Troy State              48 37.1,   142 Louisiana - Lafayette    3 25.3
 76% 192 Drake                   32 28.3,   232 Valparaiso               0 18.6
 75% 197 Davidson                46 27.0,   220 Butler                  34 17.4
 73%  69 Purdue                  62 29.3,    94 Indiana                 10 20.5
 72% 209 Norfolk State           17 26.0,   238 Winston-Salem           14 17.5
 72% 206 Alabama A&M             58 29.4,   237 Mississippi Valley Sta  23 21.5
 72% 116 Southern Illinois       17 34.2,   187 Illinois State          10 26.1
 72%  26 California              37 30.0,    52 Stanford                16 21.4
 71% 107 Wofford                 35 28.8,   148 Furman                  10 19.7
 70% 211 Portland State          24 31.6,   221 Northern Colorado       21 23.9
 70% 121 Princeton               28 19.2,   147 Dartmouth               10 12.6
 70% 103 Arkansas State          28 27.8,   125 Florida Atlantic        14 20.6
 70%  19 Iowa                    55 25.3,    79 Minnesota                0 17.9
 69%   4 Oklahoma                65 37.4,     6 Texas Tech              21 30.9
 68% 204 Nicholls State          35 28.8,   218 Southeast Louisiana     28 21.4
 68%   9 Clemson                 13 23.0,    55 Virginia                 3 17.1
 67% 196 Delaware State          10 24.2,   228 Howard                   6 18.2
 67% 110 Massachusetts           28 25.2,   133 Hofstra                 14 19.0
 67%  16 West Virginia           35 30.4,    64 Louisville              21 24.5
 66% 100 Rice                    35 35.6,   106 Marshall                10 30.2
 65%  59 Northwestern            27 26.8,    66 Illinois                10 21.5
 64% 146 Temple                  55 23.3,   152 Eastern Michigan        52 18.6
 63% 194 Eastern Illinois        38 23.5,   225 Tennessee Tech          20 19.4
 63%  75 New Hampshire           28 25.8,   118 Maine                   24 21.8
 63%  40 South Florida           17 23.3,    42 Connecticut             13 19.2
 62%  76 Richmond                23 26.9,   113 William & Mary          20 23.5
 62%  31 Cincinnati              28 24.8,    30 Pittsburgh              21 21.1
 62%  27 Boise State             41 27.7,    67 Nevada - Reno           34 23.9
 61% 181 Hampton                 17 21.4,   214 Morgan State            13 18.8
 61% 130 Liberty                 26 22.9,   122 Elon                     3 20.0
 61%  87 East Carolina           17 24.4,   136 Alabama - Birmingham    13 21.4
 60% 234 Missouri State          27 19.1,   242 Indiana State           24 16.8
 60% 175 Samford                 30 17.5,   212 Tennessee - Chattanoog   7 15.1
 60% 139 Toledo                  42 25.4,   131 Miami - Ohio            14 22.6
 60% 123 Ohio                    49 28.2,   109 Akron                   42 26.0
 60% 112 Washington State        16 20.7,   108 Washington              13 18.0
 60%  82 Pennsylvania            23 21.1,   135 Cornell                  6 19.1
 60%  60 Harvard                 10 18.0,    51 Yale                     0 15.9
 60%  44 Georgia Tech            41 20.5,    33 Miami - Florida         23 18.3
 60%  22 Florida State           37 23.3,    53 Maryland                 3 21.2
 59%  89 Fresno State            24 22.2,   132 San Jose State          10 20.2
 55% 126 Louisiana Tech          35 27.9,   155 New Mexico State        31 26.8
 54%  91 Colorado State          31 20.7,   128 Wyoming                 20 20.0
 54%  21 Boston College          24 20.0,    49 Wake Forest             21 19.3
 52%  56 Ball State              31 29.1,    78 Central Michigan        24 28.6

 49% 169 Eastern Kentucky        33 22.4,   195 Tennessee - Martin      31 22.6
 49%  99 Central Florida         28 23.0,   117 Memphis                 21 23.2
 48% 101 Villanova               21 20.9,   120 Delaware                 7 21.2
 48%  17 Oregon State            19 30.7,    28 Arizona                 17 31.2
 47%  96 Colgate                 28 32.5,    73 Holy Cross              27 33.0
 46% 162 Northeast Louisiana     31 21.0,   173 Florida International   27 21.9
 46% 111 Northern Illinois       42 24.8,   138 Kent State              14 25.6
 45% 244 North Carolina Central  10 20.2,   239 Savannah State           7 21.2
 45%  35 Utah                    48 24.6,    14 Brigham Young           24 25.5
 43% 163 Eastern Washington      33 23.0,   165 Weber State             26 24.5
 41% 208 Northwestern State      34 27.0,   215 Stephen F. Austin       24 28.8
 40% 188 Florida A&M             58 22.2,   171 Bethune - Cookman       35 24.7
 40% 154 Bucknell                24 22.8,   114 Fordham                 21 25.1
 38% 172 Jacksonville            19 21.1,   141 Dayton                  14 24.4
 38% 168 Rhode Island            29 17.4,   178 Northeastern            14 20.8
 37% 223 Idaho State             36 25.9,   201 Sacramento State        33 30.1
 37% 199 Texas State - San Marc  48 28.3,   193 Sam Houston State       45 32.7
 37%  48 Tennessee               20 16.2,    50 Vanderbilt              10 20.1
 35%  98 Mississippi State       31 19.4,    45 Arkansas                28 24.2
 34% 157 San Diego State         42 24.4,    95 Nevada - Las Vegas      21 30.2
 33% 236 Bryant                  23 13.6,   227 Saint Francis - Pennsy   0 20.1
 33% 105 Buffalo                 40 21.5,    92 Bowling Green           34 27.8
 33%  97 Lehigh                  31 15.0,    86 Lafayette               15 20.2
 30% 240 North Dakota            34 18.3,   231 South Dakota            31 26.4
 30% 226 Southeast Missouri Sta  33 17.8,   217 Austin Peay             30 25.1
 30% 151 South Dakota State      25 25.4,   124 North Dakota State      24 33.2
 28%  32 Mississippi             31 22.4,    13 Louisiana State         13 30.9
 25% 219 Central Arkansas        47 20.7,   159 McNeese State           30 30.8
 25%  68 North Carolina State    41 20.0,    38 North Carolina          10 29.6
 23% 230 Murray State            24 22.7,   184 Tennessee State         17 33.8
 23% 210 Charleston Southern     24 16.7,   166 Coastal Carolina         0 27.6
 22% 104 Syracuse                24 14.3,    58 Notre Dame              23 25.4
 20% 190 Youngstown State        31 16.4,   129 Western Illinois        28 31.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               22 0.73  37 1.05  28 0.99  12 1.06   2 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101  68  69.4 0.98

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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