prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 1 Southern California 28 32.0, 81 California - Los Angel 7 9.0
86% 20 California 48 32.3, 98 Washington 7 13.1
81% 64 Navy 34 25.5, 151 Army 0 11.5
77% 67 Troy State 35 30.6, 105 Arkansas State 9 19.6
75% 12 West Virginia 13 25.8, 37 South Florida 7 16.8
74% 137 Albany 28 25.7, 172 Jacksonville 0 16.2
74% 33 Rutgers 63 28.6, 63 Louisville 14 19.5
74% 3 Oklahoma 62 38.8, 10 Missouri 21 29.5
72% 2 Florida 31 26.4, 6 Alabama 20 17.4
62% 35 Cincinnati 29 26.9, 77 Hawaii 24 23.3
62% 30 Arizona 31 25.9, 29 Arizona State 10 22.3
49% 22 Boston College 28 19.4, 21 Virginia Tech 23 19.6
41% 161 Florida International 27 21.0, 135 Western Kentucky 3 22.8
40% 158 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 25.5, 122 Middle Tennessee State 28 27.9
36% 40 Pittsburgh 34 19.6, 36 Connecticut 10 24.3
23% 69 East Carolina 27 26.9, 32 Tulsa 24 38.5
22% 115 Buffalo 42 20.6, 50 Ball State 24 32.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 4 0.81 8 1.00 3 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 17 11 12.1 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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